2022 F1 Monaco GP: Preview and Predictions

As the F1 circus reaches the "crown jewel of F1", the Monaco GP, it appears that fans are yet to get over the hangover of Barcelona (how often did we use that statement for the Spanish GP in the past?).

This time around, for what would be the first occasion this season, we have Max Verstappen leading the championship from Charles Leclerc. He holds a 6-point advantage over the Ferrari driver and is on a 3-race winning streak. Leclerc will be hoping to make a comeback in the championship after losing out on a certain win at Barcelona due to a power unit issue. The Monaco GP is his home race and, to be fair, he hasn't had the best of luck in Monaco.

We also saw a resurgence of sorts from Mercedes in the Spanish GP and it will be interesting to see how the car behaves in the tight and twisty streets of Monaco. As we head into the season's first back-to-back race in Europe, the weekend is expected to be a fun affair for fans and teams alike. With that in mind, let's preview the Monaco GP and see what we can expect from this weekend.

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2022 F1 Monaco GP: Preview and Predictions

Key Storylines

#1 Are Red Bull/Ferrari issues resolved?

Max Verstappen's race in Barcelona almost turned into a disaster when his DRS stopped working properly. He was stuck behind George Russell and could not get past him. The bigger effect that did not catch the eye was what happened to Verstappen in qualifying. While Leclerc had a stupendous lap for pole, the Dutchman could not counter that lap because the same DRS issue prevented him from setting one.

There was a possibility of pole if the reigning world champion could set his lap but that did not happen. While a week should be enough for Red Bull to solve the DRS issue, if it remains unresolved and recurs during qualifying, that could mean Verstappen will drop multiple positions on the grid, and on a track like Monaco, that could spoil his race.

For Charles Leclerc, the power unit issue was terminal and ended his race abruptly. At the Monaco GP, there will be a replacement in place but since the issue was abrupt, can the same thing happen again? What was the cause? How will Ferrari mitigate this from happening? This is still a set of questions that would haunt both Ferrari and Leclerc.

#2 What will the pecking order be like?

The Monaco GP is a very peculiar circuit. There is a specific set of demands that need to be met for a car to do well here. As we found out last season with Mercedes and Lewis Hamilton, the tires need to be in the right window because if that is not the case, you could lose multiple positions in qualifying and the race.

Another key aspect would be the slow speed efficiency of the car. Throughout the season, Mercedes and Ferrari have shown certain prowess in those parts of the tracks. Looking at the last two races, however, it did appear that Red Bull had caught up with Ferrari in the slow-speed sections.

While the midfield pack is anybody's guess as even Alfa Romeo is a strong favorite to do well this season, there's hardly any other team that has been consistent enough to stand out. With overtaking almost nonexistent on this track, qualifying has become far more important and it could come down to that one perfect lap in qualifying that could change the complexion of the Monaco GP weekend for the teams.

#3 Have F1 cars outgrown the track?

F1 cars have not been this big, wide, and heavy in a long time. Additionally, one of the spectacles of Monaco is the driver dancing all over the place on the tight streets and using the car's agility to push the boundaries and gain lap times. To do that, you require a car that had great low-speed grip and downforce (and maybe a tad smaller size).

The new generation of cars has the potential to be the fastest cars in F1 history, but not on a track like Monaco as these cars often make up time in the fast speed corners due to the ground effect. Low-speed efficiency takes a hit with these cars and as a result, even compared to last season, the lap around Monaco might not be as spectacular.

Moreover, the size and width of these cars make it almost impossible for any kind of overtake on this track, which could mean that the driver with the track position can more or less hold it without much worry. Monaco GP's place on the F1 calendar was brought into question earlier this season due to this, and if the race does prove to be a bit of a dud, those questions could get louder in the future.

Form Guide

On Form

Three wins in three races demands respect. After the Australian GP, Max Verstappen said that he was not even focused on the championship anymore. The deficit against Charles Leclerc was more than 40 points and the Ferrari driver was the outright favorite.

The Dutchman has not only turned around that gap but has also taken over the lead in the championship. The Red Bull might not have the edge over Ferrari in terms of performance but Verstappen will be a confident man heading to the Monaco GP.

Out of Form

The F1 landscape looked quite different for Charles Leclerc at the Spanish GP when he held a comfortable lead in the race with Max Verstappen struggling to get past George Russell. A malfunctioning PU, however, means that Verstappen now has 3 wins in a row and the championship lead.

Leclerc heads to his home race this weekend, one where he hasn't had a clean weekend even once. With a car capable of winning the race, he will be looking at the Monaco GP as the race where he stops the Red Bull-Verstappen momentum for good.

Predictions for the Monaco GP

Race winner

From what we've seen this season, Ferrari should hold the edge over Red Bull in terms of performance. The Italian team has a better piece of machinery in the slow to medium-speed corners. Although Red Bull has clawed back some of the deficit, the gulf is still there. Another variable that will be in play is the car's ability to get the tires in the right working window, which is still a bit of a toss-up between the two teams.

Last season, in what was perhaps a slightly inferior car in Monaco, Charles Leclerc was still able to secure the pole. If not for the crash at the end of qualifying, he could have been in contention for the win as well. It is Leclerc's home race and with his record at the Monaco GP, he is fighting against the odds at the moment. At the end of the day, however, Leclerc has scored 4 pole positions in 6 races this season and has been unmatched in qualifying. So it is the Ferrari driver that we are picking to win the Monaco GP.

Surprise of the Spanish GP weekend

Team

Alfa Romeo has not only been consistent in the last few races but has also shown flashes of real brilliance as well. The car has cleared itself from the midfield pack and has gained a lot of momentum in the last few races. Having said that, what was rather striking after the Spanish GP was the eagerness of Valtteri Bottas for the Monaco GP.

The car was surprisingly good in the S2 and S3 in Barcelona. Could it challenge the top-6 stranglehold of Ferrari, Red Bull, and Mercedes? The fact that we're even questioning that is a sign of massive progress for the team.

Driver

Everything that could go wrong this season has gone wrong for Lewis Hamilton. The Mercedes driver has had issues with the car, he's been unlucky with the safety car (Saudi Arabia and Australia) and he's had incidents that have hampered his race.

Consequently, he finds himself 28 points behind his teammate in the standings. Despite all of this, his drive in Barcelona was sensational and showed he certainly has the speed (even if luck deserts him). With a revamped Mercedes under him, watch out for Hamilton as he can produce something special at the Monaco GP.

Disappointment of the weekend

Team

Aston Martin's upgrades at the Spanish GP led to a lot of trepidation from the paddock. What it didn't lead to, however, was an upturn in form for the team. The Monaco GP is not a track that gives you a lot of time to learn your new car and it certainly does not take too kindly to making mistakes.

While the new Aston Martin ("Green Red Bull") surely has potential, asking the team to be already on top of all the learning needed in just a week is a bit much as we expect the team to struggle around the streets of Monaco.

Driver

Guanyu Zhou hasn't had the best of starts to his debut season. The car has been unreliable for the most part and when he has had the opportunity to run, he's been far off the pace of his teammate.

At the Monaco GP, a track that exposes you whenever you are struggling with the car, the Chinese driver would find it hard to adapt and could get a little exposed as Bottas takes the Alfa Romeo into Q3.