2023 F1 Canadian GP: Preview and Predictions

The 2023 F1 Canadian GP features a return of the sport to North America. The race has been an integral part of the championship for a long time and has produced some very impressive races. This time around though, we are going to Canada with Red Bull enjoying an unbeaten run in F1.

The Austrian team has won every race this season and continues to enjoy a healthy advantage over its competition. To add to this, reigning champion Max Verstappen has been driving at a very level once again and enjoys a 53-point lead over his teammate.

Heading to the circuit named after the great Gilles Villeneuve what can we expect from the 2023 F1 Canadian GP this weekend? Let's find out.

2023 F1 Canadian GP: Preview

Key Storylines

#1 The upgraded Mercedes and how it performs

The new Mercedes with side pods and a new floor surprised everyone with the pace that it showed in Barcelona. The car clearly took a step forward and almost raised the hopes of the fans that the German team could emerge as the primary challenger for Red Bull this season.

Well, for that to be the case, Mercedes needs to perform at the 2023 F1 Canadian GP. We're transitioning from a front tire-limited Barcelona to a rear tire-limited Canada. If the car works like a charm on this track then that would be the much-needed morale booster for the German team.

#2 The suspiciously optimistic Aston Martin upgrade

"This is the last time we are not on the podium", this was a somewhat pompous claim by Fernando Alonso after the race in Barcelona. Since then, however, there has been a report that Aston Martin is bringing the year's biggest upgrade to the 2023 F1 Canadian GP.

The team is quietly confident about the upgrade and hopes that it would help close the gap to Red Bull. If the optimism is on the mark, it would be interesting to see where it places Aston Martin in the pecking order.

#3 The conservative Pirelli tire choice

Something that has not made much news but deserves due recognition is the fact that Pirelli released its tire allocation for the next set of races. Surprisingly though and arguably reacting to the morbidly actionless one-stop races that we've seen this season, the tire manufacturer will bring a step softer tires for the 2023 F1 Canadian GP.

The aim could be to increase the number of pitstops in a race to induce some level of action as the start of the season has been a bit dull. It does remain to be seen how it impacts car behavior as well.

Form Guide

On Form

Mercedes left everyone impressed with its double podium in the last race. Team boss Toto Wolff was quite harsh on the team's technical department after the race in Bahrain and since then there has been an extensive amount of work going on in the background.

The result is there for all to see as Mercedes secured its first double podium of the season and will be hoping to continue its run into the future.

Out of form

This one has to go to Charles Leclerc who cannot catch a break this season. The Ferrari driver has had either self-induced or team-induced errors in six of the seven races this season and has lost more potential points this season than he's scored.

The Ferrari driver will be desperately hoping for a straightforward weekend where once again it is not the case of one thing or the other going wrong.

2023 F1 Canadian GP: Predictions

Who wins the race?

It's hard to look beyond Red Bull and it's hard to look beyond Max Verstappen. The driver has been far too impressive in the last three to four seasons and there hasn't been a true competition that has matched the kind of results he's producing.

It's arguably bad news for F1 promoters that the fastest driver on the grid drives the fastest car but that's just how the cookie crumbles sometimes and it's hard to see anything coming in the way of a Verstappen win this weekend.

Surprise of the weekend (Team)

Something that fans tend to forget is that a car's characteristics more or less remain the same even when new sets of upgrades are brought to the car. The current ecosystem of F1 does not aid a completely transformed car within a season and it's just not possible with a cost cap.

A car that works great on a rear-limited track will continue to be strong in those conditions. Aston Martin is one such car and while the jury is still out over what the upgrades will deliver, Canada is a track that should aid Fernando Alonso and help add to the tally of his podiums.

Surprise of the weekend (Driver)

The 2023 F1 Canadian GP is a crunch race for Sergio Perez. A race where he needs to make a statement and stop the ever-increasing deficit to Max Verstappen. Unfortunately, as he earlier predicted, we do expect Max to win the race.

Having said that, the race should feature Sergio Perez truly challenging Max Verstappen over a race distance. The Mexican has been very impressive throughout his career on this track. His superiority over even his teammate out of traction corners is what makes him a threat this weekend.

While beating his teammate might be a step too far, the 2023 F1 Canadian GP could be the one where Perez puts on a stronger front against his teammate.

Disappointment of the weekend (Team)

The former Mercedes package seemed to have one major weakness and that was on rear limited tracks. The car struggled quite a bit in Bahrain early in the season and in a way, proved to be a reality check for the German team.

We're back to a rear-limited track in Canada once again and even though we are looking at an upgraded package, there are still question marks over how the car would behave.

We expect Mercedes to maybe take a step back this weekend and fight with Ferrari for being the third fastest car this weekend as Aston Matin challenges for the podium.

Disappointment of the weekend (Driver)

The 2023 F1 Canadian GP is the home race for Lance Stroll and the driver will be hoping to do well. He did put together a strong race in Barcelona as well which should hold him in great stead. Having said that, the one weakness in Stroll's game is his qualifying prowess, and more often than not, after Red Bull it is open for all in qualifying.

Aston Martin, Ferrari, Mercedes, and Alpine tend to have very comparable pace over one lap and even Haas with Nico Hulkenberg tends to be in contention. Overtaking is possible in the F1 Canadian GP but it's not the easiest to make the way through the field.

For Lance Stroll as well, his home F1 Canadian GP might not be the best of weekends for him.