2023 F1 Dutch GP: Qualifying Predictions

The first day of the 2023 F1 Dutch GP has revealed quite a few interesting observations. Some of them are a surprise while the others were at the very least expected to be the case. With the weather threatening to play a role all weekend, teams got on with their jobs. Unfortunately, that led to Daniel Ricciardo's accident and consequently, an injury that took him out of action.

Among all of this, the first day of running is done and we have the qualifiers on Saturday. So what can we expect from the 2023 F1 Dutch GP qualifying? Let's take a look.

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#1 Max Verstappen secures pole position for the 2023 F1 Dutch GP

It's going to be a very intense battle for pole position and by the looks of it, the top 3-4 teams are very close to each other over a lap. From the running on Friday, it did appear that McLaren's Lando Norris might have had an edge over Max Verstappen on a single lap.

Having said that, this is the 2023 F1 Dutch GP, Max's home race. If there is one race on the calendar where you would expect Max Verstappen to not leave anything on the table then it is this race. We're backing the Red Bull driver to secure pole position on Saturday. There is a very high likelihood that Lando Norris will be the one alongside Max on the front row as well.

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#2 George Russell does not qualify in the top 5

The battle at the sharp end of the grid seems very close with Red Bull, McLaren, Mercedes, and Ferrari (maybe) battling it out for the top spots. What we've seen since the German unit's upgrade in Monaco is a lack of comfort from George Russell while driving the car.

Unlike Lewis Hamilton, who has adapted the new upgrades like fish to water, Russell is finding it hard to keep up. For the 2023 F1 Dutch GP as well, it does appear that Russell is once again playing catchup and when you're doing that, it's hard to see him qualify inside the top 5.

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#3 Lance Stroll and an Alpine driver do not make it to Q3

Aston Martin seems to have made some improvement in performance but it's not as big an improvement that it helps the car jump to the front. The team still finds it in a somewhat similar place in the pecking order i.e. behind the blistering speed of the McLaren and Mercedes but maybe the gap has been closed in this race.

Alpine has also shown the ability to belong in a somewhat similar vicinity in the pecking order. With so many teams fighting for the same piece of tarmac, something's gotta give. This is where we feel either of the two Alpine drivers Esteban Ocon or Pierre Gasly and Lance Stroll are not going to make it to Q3 in the 2023 F1 Dutch GP Qualifying.

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#4 Alex Albon misses out on Q3

Alex Albon's times in the 2023 F1 Dutch GP FP1 and FP2 have made everyone stand up and take notice of the potential of Williams on this track. Whether that is surely the case or not is a different thing, but in such a condensed field it's hard to expect Williams to make such massive gains without even bringing too many upgrades.

Can we expect a team to completely turn around its fortunes without making significant changes to its current challenger? No, we can't. It's hard to imagine Williams in the top 10 at the 2023 F1 Dutch GP and it will surely come as a surprise.

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#5 The margins are going to be very small

One major takeaway from the first day of running is that the margins in the qualifying are going to be very small. From Red Bull to maybe the sixth or seventh fastest team on the grid, the gap is not that big and when that happens, driver talent starts to make a difference. This is exactly what we're going to see in qualifying.

First of all the gaps are going to be minimal and even a tenth can make a difference of three to four places, secondly, drivers are going to be the difference makers this time around.