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The 2024 F1 Azerbaijan GP comes at arguably a very critical juncture in the championship. With only 8 races left, we are now in the final leg of the championship and surprisingly both titles are still on the line.
One could not have made such a statement at the start of the season when Red Bull and Max Verstappen dominated the field in Bahrain. Well, here we are though, witnessing the collapse of the Austrian team that has completely lost its way this season.
As we head to the F1 Azerbaijan GP, Red Bull is within catching distance for McLaren, while Max Verstappen is hoping against hope that the 62-point advantage he holds in the championship will be enough for him.
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That said, Baku has been the home for some of the more interesting race weekends over the past decade. The races can get unpredictable, even though the last one was quite processional. What can we expect from the F1 Azerbaijan GP? Let's take a look.
2024 F1 Azerbaijan GP: Preview
Key Storylines
#1 The Papaya rules
When questioned after the race in Monza about the 'papaya rules', Zak Brown gave a generic answer, which could have been given for almost every situation between teammates. After the race, Andrea Stella said there will be a consideration given to the fact that both the titles are on the table.
Whether that happens is still a question mark, but one thing is clear. The team cannot approach the F1 Azerbaijan GP without clarity. A lot will depend on how McLaren approaches the upcoming weekend.
#2 Red Bull's position in the pecking order
Red Bull is heading to arguably one of the tracks that the RB20 will not like as much. The car's biggest issue, even if we leave the balance problems to one side, is the inability to ride the kerbs. This was evident in Monaco and even in Hungary.
A major concern is heading to Baku with a track that will probably have some aggressive kerbs. The team could be 4th-fastest again, which won't sit well with Max Verstappen.
#3 The lack of 'raceability' of these cars
One question that has not appeared to get addressed this season is the clear drop-off in the 'raceability' of these cars. The warning signs were there in 2023 and they were becoming harder to follow. But the fact that on tracks like Spa, you have drivers complaining about lack of free air should be concerning.
This was on display even in the race in Monza, where overtaking was just not easy. Heading to the F1 Azerbaijan GP, it will be interesting to see if there's an impact, especially since the last time we raced in Baku, the race was not that good.
Form Guide
On Form
Charles Leclerc has been in red-hot form in the last few races, and if anyone has been keenly observing what he's been doing in the car, it should not come as a surprise. The podium at Spa, although fortuitous, was well deserved.
So were the podium at Zandvoort and the win in Monza. Away from the spotlight, Leclerc has been eating into Max Verstappen's lead as well and is only 24 points behind Lando Norris heading into the F1 Azerbaijan GP.
Out of Form
If there is one thing that is out of form right now and is highlighted more than anything else, then it is Lando Norris' ability to hold position at the start of the season.
The driver is just not doing enough at the moment, and it has hurt him big time. Heading into the F1 Azerbaijan GP, the start is once again going to be crucial, and most importantly, all eyes will be on him once again as the 5 lights go out.
2024 F1 Azerbaijan GP: Predictions
Who will win the race?
There aren't many in F1 who doubt the fact that Baku is a Charles Leclerc track. Some of the laps that he's pulled out on this track have been nothing less than spectacular. This time around, he might even have a Ferrari that could fight for the win potentially.
The car does handle the kerbs well and is quite clearly one of the better cars in a straight line. There's a good chance that we might be looking at a Charles Leclerc special this weekend at the F1 Azerbaijan GP.
Surprise of the weekend (Team)
As a team, keep an eye out for Williams this weekend. The team's upgrade at Zandvoort was certainly something, and since that race, Alex Albon has been in Q3 on both occasions. Baku has not traditionally been a track that suits the car, but this is a completely different and more rounded car. We might see Williams making an appearance in Q3 once again and scoring points.
Surprise of the weekend (Driver)
In case anyone missed the news, Ollie Bearman will be racing in the F1 Azerbaijan GP this weekend as a replacement for Kevin Magnussen. One thing that fans might not be aware of is the fact that Ollie Bearman was stunning around Baku in F2 last season.
He secured pole position in a car that had a bent steering wheel. The young Brit is a special talent, and we might see him do something impressive this weekend.
Disappointment of the weekend (Team)
Red Bull has won the F1 Azerbaijan GP for the last three years and has done it quite convincingly. Having said that, the current situation that the team finds itself in is hardly productive in any way and expecting the team to even fight for a podium is going to be a tough ask.
The harsh kerbs and an overall lack of balance are what's going to hurt the team as it tries to salvage a result in the title battle.
Disappointment of the weekend (Driver)
This might be the race where things start to get real for Franco Colapinto. The rookie has a decent first race in Monza. The second, however, is at Baku, a track that is notorious for inducing mistakes.
Colapinto hasn't raced here in the past, and with Albon showing that the car can score points, pressure will be on. Expect the young driver to struggle a bit during the F1 Azerbaijan GP as reality hits for the first time.
