2024 F1 Belgian GP: Qualifying Predictions

The 2024 F1 Belgian GP qualifying comes at a very critical juncture for all drivers and teams. The first day of running is over, and it was held in dry weather. The team and drivers got lucky because rain was supposed to cause a disruption. Fortunately, it stayed away, but it could be a factor on Saturday.

The qualifying session is expected to face disruption from rain. The first day of running was quite smooth for all teams, and there was no such drama for anyone. We didn't have any freak accidents that proved to be a major disruptor, nor did we have any scenario where teams needed to alter their plans due to the weather.

On Saturday, there's a likelihood that rain could play a role. A track like Spa often tends to be good for wheel-to-wheel battles, but there's always the factor where track position makes a lot of difference, so teams and drivers will hope to nail the Belgian GP qualifying.

So, what can we expect from the session? Let's take a look:

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#5 Drivers are going to make a difference at this track

For anyone watching the sport for a long time, the sight of Max Verstappen pulling a whopping eight-tenths of a second on Sergio Perez in the second sector in the Belgian GP FP1 was a shocker.

The reality of Spa is that it's one of the very few tracks left on the calendar where if a driver finds a sweet spot, he just pulls out his laptime like it's nobody's business.

We're going to see something similar in qualifying as well because there are going to be drivers who would find the sweet spot and pull out lap times that not many would have expected, especially their teammates.

#4 Alpine are the dark horses

The lap from Esteban Ocon in FP2 would have turned heads because, while Alpine has brought an upgrade to the track, the car was not supposed to perform well on a power track.

The driver's time on the soft tyres was in the top 10 and was put together not with the aid of a rogue slipstream but just the old-fashioned way of doing the lap without any external aid.

If it rains, one has to wait and watch what kind of impact it could have on the car, but, in general, Alpine should be the dark horse with both drivers.

#3 Sergio Perez doesn't make Q3

It's not the best prediction if you're a fan of the Mexican, but Sergio Perez's team radio in FP1 was a telltale sign of a driver who's not confident around the track. The driver admitted that he was finding it difficult to understand how the car would behave on the track.

When that happens, you don't have confidence in the car. On a track like Spa, confidence is everything, and with rain expected to make an appearance, it's going to work against the driver as well. It's going to be a stretch if Sergio Perez qualifies in the top-10.

#2 The wet weather could help Mercedes but hurt Ferrari

In the dry, it appears that Ferrari have the overall edge over Mercedes for the Belgian GP.

Having said that, with rain expected to make an appearance, that could work like a charm for the German team. The team tends to perform its best in wet or damp conditions, as seen in Canada and in Silverstone.

Ferrari, meanwhile, are completely opposite, as the car tends to not work the best when the temperature goes down. If rain makes an appearance at the Belgian GP, expect Mercedes to surge and Ferrari to falter.

#1 Max Verstappen secures pole at Belgian GP qualifying

For the Belgian GP, it appears that Red Bull and the McLarens are going to be fighting for pole position. The two teams are a step ahead of everyone else. Max Verstappen stunned everyone in FP1 when his times were just on a different level.

In FP2, the driver took off some downforce to aid the raceability of the car, as he would have had to make his way through the field. For the Belgian GP qualifying, it should be a close battle between Red Bull and McLaren for pole position.

With a looming penalty on his head and hints of sublime form in Fp1, Max Verstappen should secure pole position in qualifying, even though a 10-place grid penalty means he won't keep the position for the grid.