2024 F1 Brazilian GP: Preview and Predictions

The 2024 F1 Brazilian GP comes at a pivotal point in the championship. We're coming off the Mexican GP that saw Lando Norris take 10 points off Max Verstappen and close the gap to 47 points with just four races left. To make things even more interesting, it does appear that the weather in Sao Paulo is going to have spells of rain which is further going to make it very intriguing.

The race in Sao Paulo would also be the home race of the 'honorary citizen' Lewis Hamilton. The Mercedes driver would be hitting the track for the last time in silver leathers.

The 2024 F1 Brazilian GP is also a sprint weekend, and hence the stakes are higher and so is the risk. So how do we expect the race weekend to pan out? Let's take a look.

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2024 F1 Brazilian GP: Preview

Key Storylines

#1 The pecking order

The biggest question facing a lot of teams and drivers right now is what the pecking order would be at every race. There's just far too much unpredictability this season going from race to race, and what we see is a scenario where every team is trying to adapt to the conditions in front of them.

Since the summer break, both Ferrari and McLaren have been neck and neck when it comes to on-track performance. Would we see Red Bull make a jump at a track like Sau Paulo? Would the weather play a role? These would be some of the questions heading into the weekend.

#2 The FIA vs Max Verstappen?

The 'British Bias' topic is back, with the Verstappens being more than vocal in pointing out how the decisions that went against them have to do with bias. Whether that is right or wrong, the question that often comes up with something like this is targeting the character of the people who are supposed to hold the sport in the highest regard.

The fact that both Max Verstappen and his father Jos have done that is certainly something that's going to be a bit contentious heading to Brazil.

#3 Sergio Perez's future

There appear to be a lot of rumors of Sergio Perez getting the axe after the F1 Brazilian GP. Are these substantiated? Possibly not. But are these the ones that are going to put the Mexican driver under even more pressure? Possibly.

Checo's performances have not been brilliant. But dropping him four races from the end? One has to assume that there are better ways to approach something like this. The F1 Brazilian GP is going to answer a lot of questions around this.

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Form Guide

On Form

Ferrari has now won 3 of the last 5 races this season and the car has passed far too many tests for it not to be considered a brilliant overall package. At this stage, one can only assume what could have happened if the team did not have that mid-season slump post-Monaco.

With that being said, a Constructors' title is up for grabs for Ferrari for the first time since 2008. The race in Brazil is going to be a good gauge of where the momentum shifts in the last few races.

Out of form

There's hardly a clue of what has happened to Mercedes this season after the summer break. The team went into the break on the back of 3 wins in 4 races. Since the sport has re-emerged after that break, the car is nowhere.

It's neither fast nor competitive, and it's a distant 4th. What has gone wrong and how will that be remedied is a question we don't really have an answer for. By the looks of it, neither does Mercedes.

2024 F1 Brazilian GP: Predictions

Who will win the race?

If we have a straightforward dry weekend in Sau Paulo, it's going to be a battle for the win between McLaren and Ferrari with the Italian team holding the edge. Looking at the weather forecast, that's just not what is in store right now. We're looking at a race weekend where rain could disrupt things.

On such a weekend, nothing is straightforward. What you need is a driver who's brilliant in the wet weather, coupled with a team that is exceptionally sharp when it comes to making the right calls at crunch time. At the F1 Brazilian GP, it's hard to look beyond Max Verstappen and Red Bull, reminding everyone why this is the most complete partnership in the sport.

Surprise of the weekend (Team)

Mercedes has had a torrid second half of the season and a lot of it has to do with the team being stuck when it comes to finding the right development path. For the F1 Brazilian GP, however, the weather is going to be mixed and rain is going to play a role.

If there are any conditions where Mercedes has truly excelled this season, it is the cold and wet weather. We're backing the German team to have a much better showing this time around and not be the 4th best team.

Surprise of the weekend (Driver)

The F1 Brazilian GP is Lewis Hamilton's second home race of the season and the driver seems pumped for it looking at his comments after the race in Mexico. He has always done well around Sau Paulo, and some of his drives have been spectacular. With that said, if it does rain, it plays into the hands of Mercedes, and we might be looking at a strong showing from the driver.

Disappointment of the weekend (Team)

Rain is probably not the best thing for Ferrari. The car has a tendency to take some time to get the tires up to temperature. While that is brilliant for conditions where temperatures are high in general, for a wet weather race, it could be a major issue.

We might see the Italian team struggle a bit at the F1 Brazilian GP if rain continues to be a feature of the weekend.

Disappointment of the weekend (Driver)

Sergio Perez already heads into the F1 Brazilian GP under pressure. The conditions are going to be tough this weekend. Red Bull is not the best suited for Sau Paulo, with rain likely to play a role, and to top it off, there are suggestions that the Mexican is on his way out of the team.

That's too much pressure, and one just feels that a change of scenery might be the best thing for the driver.