2024 F1 Japanese GP: Race Predictions

The 2024 F1 Japanese GP will have Max Verstappen starting the race on pole position, with Sergio Perez alongside him on the front row. The Red Bull duo will be followed by former teammates Lando Norris and Carlos Sainz. Unlike last season, the gap between the leaders and the chasing pack was not as big.

This does give the teams a sense of optimism even though Red Bull and Max Verstappen looked quite comfortable during qualifying. The chances of rain making an appearance during the race are minuscule and hence any such last-minute drama is probably out of the window as well

Red Bull and Max Verstappen have dominated the F1 Japanese GP in the last two years. What can we expect in 2024? Let's take a look.

#1 Max Verstappen wins the 2024 F1 Japanese GP

Yes, this might sound boring and monolithic but even with a reduced gap to the chasing pack, Red Bull holds a comfortable lead over everyone else. Starting on pole position once again, Max Verstappen will be eager to get back to winning ways in Suzuka and treat Melbourne as nothing more than a blip.

Looking at the race simulations and the starting grid, it does appear that there won't be much of a challenge for Max. Once again, after losing a race, Verstappen comes to Japan to kickstart another one.

#2 Lando Norris secures his second podium of the season

Lando Norris was brilliant in qualifying and will be starting the race in P3. It's safe to say that McLaren doesn't have the pace to challenge Red Bull for the win, so competing with the drivers on the front row could be tough. Having said that, the car is still quite competitive against the likes of Ferrari, Mercedes, and Aston Martin.

Expect the McLaren driver to pick up his second podium of the season at the F1 Japanese GP.

#3 There won't be too much wheel-to-wheel action in the 2024 F1 Japanese GP

Tire degradation could be a factor in the F1 Japanese GP, but what we've seen in 2023 as well is the fact that Suzuka is not too conducive to wheel-to-wheel action. One can pull off an overtake at the hairpin or even on the start-finish straight, but what you need to do is a much bigger pace differential.

In 2023, we had a two-stop race, which was more or less processional in nature. Expect more of the same in 2024, as cars become even harder to follow.

#4 Tire degradation could play a role

Tire degradation could play a role and one of the biggest reasons for that has to be the lack of running for most of the teams. When it comes to long-run pace, it does appear that every team (except Aston Martin) has saved enough sets for Sunday and hence there wouldn't be much divergence.

There is still a level of uncertainty in the larger scheme of things, and one has to wonder how much the tires would play a role in the F1 Japanese GP.

#5 Ferrari is the dark horse in the race

If we look at the limited running on Friday and Saturday, Ferrari's race pace looked impressive. Unfortunately for the team, one driver starts the race in P4 and the other in P9, hence, it would be hard to see them challenge for the win.

There is, however, a lack of a large enough sample space to assume that the Italian team has this impressive long-run pace. If that gets validated in the F1 Japanese GP, then we could even see Carlos Sainz fighting for the podium with Lando Norris, but if it isn't, then it would be hard to see the team make the kind of progress we're used to seeing from the team.