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The 2024 F1 Japanese GP comes at a crucial juncture this year. In a season that was expected to be a clean sweep for Red Bull and Max Verstappen, we saw a somewhat unexpected winner in Melbourne last time out.
The reason? Reliability and somewhat peculiar conditions in terms of a front-limited track. The race was won by a combination of Ferrari and Carlos Sainz. Due to that, for at least for a moment, the championship standings look quite interesting.
While Verstappen continues to lead, Charles Leclerc in second is within striking distance. If Leclerc wins the F1 Japanese GP, we will see a change in the championship standings.
Would this happen? Could this be something that F1 fans can hope for this weekend? Let's find out as we take a look at the preview of the F1 Japanese GP.
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2024 F1 Japanese GP: Preview
Key Storylines
#1 Could Ferrari challenge Red Bull?
The win in Melbourne was entirely on merit for Ferrari as the car worked brilliantly. There was no such case of Red Bull only losing because of reliability because even if the car had been reliable, there was a possibility we would have seen competition between Verstappen and Sainz.
Red Bull attributed the drop in performance to the peculiar conditions in Melbourne and does not appear to be too bothered with what happened. However, Ferrari certainly received a major confidence boost as it showed that it can take on the reigning champions in the right conditions.
Can the Charles Leclerc-Carlos Sainz combo challenge Red Bull in Suzuka? It looks unlikely at this stage but we can't know for sure until the cars hit the track.
#2 How will Mercedes fare?
Mercedes has had the worst start to its season in the ground effect era. The car was fourth or fifth fastest in Melbourne, and the team has no clue how to make it work at this stage. For the German team, the biggest thing would be to find a more balanced approach to how they set up the car.
The F1 Japanese GP demands aerodynamic efficiency and great top speed, so we might see the German team struggle once again over the weekend.
#3 Daniel Ricciardo's form
Daniel Ricciardo has not had the best start to the season. The first three races have not been that great, but what has been surprising is how pundits have already begun writing him off.
The Australian will be looking for course correction at the F1 Japanese GP, as all eyes will be on him once again.
Form Guide
In form
One cannot look away from the impact Carlos Sainz had on the F1 grid in Melbourne. That race weekend was just brilliant, as he was still not completely healed from his surgery.
The Spaniard has had two races in 2024 and has finished ahead of his Ferrari teammate. For a driver looking to secure a seat in 2025, Sainz is doing everything brilliantly.
Out of form
When we talk about a bad start to the season, the name that pops up immediately is Lewis Hamilton. Hamilton has been outqualified in all three races and the gap between him and George has been concerning.
The F1 Japanese GP boasts a track where he tends to do well, so his display will be interesting to monitor.
2024 F1 Japanese GP: Predictions
Who will win the race?
The last time Max Verstappen lost a race, he came back with a vengeance. Unfortunately for his rivals, the event after Verstappen's last loss was the F1 Japanese GP, and we could see history repeat itself this weekend.
Red Bull is a brilliant car around Suzuka because it is not only the best aerodynamically, but also has no deficiency on the power unit side. Verstappen winning the F1 Japanese GP by more than 20 seconds may not come as much of a surprise.
We predict a return to form for the reigning world champion this weekend.
The surprise of the weekend (Team)
McLaren has a very track-specific car and it truly shines in some specific track configurations. The track configuration of Suzuka works perfectly for the car that the team has right now. It secured a double podium in Suzuka last time around and it won't come as a surprise if the team fights for the podium this weekend.
The surprise of the weekend (Driver)
The kind of media hype around Charles Leclerc's teammate has been interesting. Sainz got the better of Leclerc in Bahrain as the Monagasque struggled with a brake issue. The Spaniard then returned to action in Melbourne and won the race for Ferrari.
This has led to many claiming that Ferrari made the wrong call by dropping the Spaniard. Many have even claimed that he's better than Leclerc.
Leclerc was compromised in Bahrain, which marked the first time in eight races that Sainz finished ahead of him. Melbourne marked the first instance in nine races of his teammate outqualifying him. When you have such a record against your teammate, these suggestions can be a bit surprising. Come the F1 Japanese GP, expect Leclerc to make a statement.
Disappointment of the weekend (Team)
Mercedes has not done well in Suzuka in the ground floor era. The power unit advantage is gone, and the aerodynamic prowess is just not there.
The team had the fourth fastest car last season. The 2024 F1 Japanese GP might not turn out to be much better.
Disappointment of the weekend (Driver)
Lewis Hamilton has not clicked at all with the car this season and he goes to a track where confidence in the car is the key to a good lap.
To add to this, the car isn't expected to do much better on track anyway which could have a constertina effect on his lap as well. We expect Hamilton to have another weekend where he struggles to put everything together.
