2024 F1 Saudi Arabian GP: Qualifying Predictions

The first day of running in the 2024 F1 Saudi Arabian GP is now done and dusted. Fernando Alonso ended the day on top of the timesheets with a laptime that was unassailable at the end.

He was followed by George Russell, who was only a couple of tenths behind him and Max Verstappen was in P3. The first race of the season saw a very close battle for pole position between the Red Bulls, Ferraris and Mercedes. Could we see something similar in Saudi Arabia? Let's find out as we share our predictions for F1 Saudi Arabian GP qualifying.

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#1 George Russell and Charles Leclerc are the frontrunners for pole in the 2024 F1 Saudi Arabian GP

For a moment, even if we ignore Aston Martin's laptime at the top of the timesheets, the Mercedes of George Russell was still ahead of Max Verstappen. And this is after multiple attempts by the Red Bull driver to find a better laptime.

Mercedes appears to be a car that's probably able to switch the tires on earlier than Red Bull. Ferrari, on the other hand, did not have an impressive laptime to show, but one of the reasons might just be how much the team plays with the power modes. Both Leclerc and Russell are the drivers who have led the charge for their respective teams, and one can expect the same in F1 Saudi Arabian GP qualifying as well.

We're expecting a Russell-Leclerc front row with the Ferrari driver pipping the Mercedes charger.

#2 Generating tire temperatures is going to cost Red Bull in qualifying

Red Bull's strengths and weaknesses at the F1 Saudi Arabian GP appear to be the same thing. The car is not that good when it comes to instantly generating tire temperatures.

When that happens, it brings a situation where, in qualifying, the team might end up struggling, but in the race, it will be the trump card. Verstappen's race pace for the F1 Saudi Arabian GP is on another level, but he might struggle a little in qualifying.

#3 Aston Martin will struggle to emulate Friday's form

Aston Martin cannot be serious about running the same setup it went with in FP2. The setup is just too harsh on the tires and the race pace is poor. Having said that, if Aston Martin does, it could be a factor at the front in qualifying but drop behind in the race.

The team would ideally take the sensible option and start the race with a slightly compromised setup.

#4 Haas will struggle to emulate Bahrain form

The track characteristics of Bahrain and Jeddah don't really match. Haas was brilliant in Bahrain, with Nico Hulkenberg getting a top-10 start. However, in the F1 Saudi Arabian GP, this might be a bit of a stretch, and we might struggle to see a top-10 start for Haas this weekend.

#5 Alpine might be in fractionally better shape

Traction zones are one of the major issues that Alpine faces according to Bruno Famin. The track in Jeddah does not punish poor traction as much as it used to in Bahrain and hence we can see Alpine mixing things up a little with others at the back.

Having said that, the growth would be marginal and not transformational.