2024 F1 Season Predictions: What will be the pecking order?

The 2024 F1 pre-season test has ended but several lingering questions remain. This season looks more predictable than previous years, but there are still a few unknowns.

While we got a few answers in the first three days of running (yes, Red Bull is on top), there's plenty that hasn't yet been unveiled. In this piece, we try to predict what we expect the 2024 F1 pecking order to be in Bahrain.

We've divided the teams into tiers, with each of them containing a cluster who are in the vicinity of each other in terms of pace. Each tier is separated by the other by a somewhat meaningful jump or drop in competitiveness.

So let's take a look at what the predicted competitive order could be like.

2024 F1 Season Predictions: Predicting the pecking order

Tier 1

Red Bull

This one's not much of a surprise as Red Bull has stamped its authority over the rest of the F1 grid in recent years. The Austrian team is at the front of the pack, although we're yet to see how much of an advantage the team has this season.

Tier 2

Ferrari

Ferrari might just be the leaders of the chasing pack. There are still question marks over how good the car is (it's still testing so things are not as transparent), but it does appear to be an improvement from what it was in 2023. We need to wait for the first F1 race to see the real picture.

McLaren

After Ferrari, it's tricky to make a clear choice as the other three teams in this category are neck and neck. McLaren has shown promising performance overall, but it's hard to say how much the team has truly improved until we see them in action.

Mercedes

Another team that had impressive long-run pace is Mercedes. The car has not truly unleashed its pace, but a podium in Bahrain would not be a surprise.

Aston Martin

Aston Martin should consider this test as a positive. The car was playing catch-up when the season ended in 2023, but it seems closer in 2024. Podium contention could be on the cards.

Tier 3

Racing Bulls

Racing Bulls seems to be the lone team in the midfield by the looks of things. The team is just a step behind the top 5 and appears to have cleared the bottom four. The team had a successful first F1 test, and now it's time for it to kick off its campaign.

Tier 4

Sauber

The bottom four teams, including Sauber, might just be interchangeable. It's very hard to pinpoint where each of them falls. Sauber has built a car that is heavily inspired by the Red Bull of the last F1 season. It will be interesting if it reaps the rewards of it.

Williams

Williams looks to be a bit more rounded compared to last season. Whether that would be enough to make it a points contender will become clear in the first F1 race.

Alpine

Alpine is another team that appears to be on the back foot at the start of the season. It is astounding to see the team targeting a climb to the front in 2023 and now finding itself in such a position.

Haas

Haas had predicted a tough start to the 2024 F1 season and it does appear to be the case. The team is in a rebuilding stage at the moment and would be hoping to make prompt improvements.