2024 F1 Spanish GP: Qualifying predictions

Lewis Hamilton topped the first day of the F1 Spanish GP, which was a surprise in itself, but the bigger surprise was how close four different teams were during the day. The season had started with expectations of Red Bull and Mercedes repeating what they did in 2023, but on the contrary, we're looking at a very competitive season that could go in any direction.

If we go through the order in FP2 at the end of the session, we had Lewis Hamilton on top, followed by Carlos Sainz and Lando Norris, both of whom were less than a tenth slower than the Mercedes driver. Max Verstappen was surprisingly, only in P5, while his teammate Sergio Perez was not even in the top 10.

In all of this, we're heading towards the all-crucial qualifying on Saturday. The track position will continue to be a key factor in Formula 1, even though overtaking has become a bit easier. What do we expect from the F1 Spanish GP qualifying? Let's take a look.

#5 Aston Martin is not making the top 10

Looking at the manner in which the car behaved on Friday, Aston Martin is in deep trouble. The team appears to have no clue on how to develop the car, and to make things worse, there's a lack of understanding whenever it brings upgrades.

The F1 Spanish GP track is not the best for Aston Martin in terms of track layouts, but how the team has completely fallen off the wagon is hard to understand. The way the car looks at the moment, expect neither of the drivers to reach Q3.

#4 Williams and RB have their respective struggles

Williams never expected a strong weekend in the F1 Spanish GP because of the nature of the track, while RB appears to have found itself in a pickle. Bringing as many upgrades as it did, the Faenza-based team has been unable to get the best understanding, and hence the car is probably not the best in terms of balance.

With only FP3 left, it's going to be hard to see the team recover. Expect both Daniel Ricciardo and Yuki Tsunoda to struggle in terms of making it to Q3. Williams, on the other hand, might get eliminated in Q1 with both cars.

#3 Sergio Perez qualifies outside of the top 5

Sergio Perez might have a freshly signed paper claiming that he has a contract extended until the 2026 F1 season. That won't mean much if the Mexican cannot show a better form than what he has in the last few races, including the F1 Spanish GP until now.

Sure, Max Verstappen is making the difference at Red Bull, but if Perez can't even be 3 tenths of a second within his teammate's time, then that's a problem. Unfortunately, on Saturday, we don't see him making the jump. He would struggle to reach Q3, but if he does, he's not getting into the top 5 for the F1 Spanish GP.

#2 Max Verstappen in top 3

Max Verstappen was just P5 in FP2, and that would have made quite a few people excited as it brings the prospect of more competition at the front. Well, the competition is certainly going to be there at the front, but we're expecting Max in his Red Bull to bounce back.

The Dutch driver and the team have a knack for finding improvements, and we back them to do the same in this case as well.

We're not picking Max Verstappen to secure pole position, but we're picking him to be in the top 3 for the F1 Spanish GP.

#1 Lando Norris secures pole position at F1 Spanish GP

Lando Norris has one pole position under his best in F1 and it was in 2021. At the F1 Spanish GP, he's going to have competition from Mercedes, Ferrari, and Max Verstappen. There's Oscar Piastri as well, who could spring a surprise as well.

In all of these options, there's none that's not viable and none that won't make sense. The McLaren, however, has looked great in all conditions, and in general, the team has shown this ability to step things up and improve as the weekend progresses. Keeping that in mind, we're going with Lando Norris, as we expect him to maybe have a few hundredths in hand when the chequered flag finally falls.