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The 2024 F1 Spanish GP comes at a critical juncture. It is the start of the triple header and more often than not, it is a race that dictates momentum for how the other two work out.
Previously, Barcelona used to be the race that kickstarted the European leg of the calendar. That has changed in the last few years and now it's races like Imola that do that.
Heading to the F1 Spanish GP, we're coming off a 4-race stretch where we've had three different winners. That's a rarity in the ground effect era and most importantly, this should give an idea of how close things are at the front of the grid.
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With no clarity over the contract situation for Barcelona, we're possibly looking at one of the last iterations of the F1 Spanish GP on this track. How do we expect the weekend to pan out? Let's take a look.
#5 Sergio Perez does not get into top 5
Sergio Perez might have a signed paper that says he will stay at Red Bull until 2026 but his performances just don't make it look that easy. The problem with the driver has been that, more often than not, he's around 3 tenths slower than Max Verstappen.
When Red Bull is dominant, it's not much of a concern, as he can slot behind Max. The problem comes when the field closes up. Right now, McLaren and Ferrari are possibly within a couple of tenths of the reigning champions. Hence, Perez is getting showed up.
With Mercedes also closing in, it's just a tough ask to see Sergio close that gap. At the F1 Spanish GP, we just don't see him doing that whatsoever.
#4 Daniel Ricciardo beats Yuki Tsunoda again
Daniel Ricciardo shut down his critics at the Canadian GP, but Jacques Villeneuve still had one crucial critique - the Australian had done this just twice in 9 races. The F1 Spanish GP is crucial in that sense as this is Ricciardio's opportunity to show that he can do what he did in Canada regularly.
The track at Barcelona is one of the more predictable ones and this is where it is probably easier to set the cars up for races. This has been one of the issues for Ricciardio, and if this is fixed, the Australian is looking at a scenario where he will be comfortable in the car.
If he is in sync with the car, you can expect him to have the upper hand on Yuki Tsunoda in Barcelona.
#3 Mercedes will still be 4th fastest but closer to the top 3
Mercedes had signs of positivity in Canada when the team got pole position and fought for the win. The track layout for Barcelona is possibly the one where we just don't see similar challenges. This weekend the focus will be on the fast speed sections and that's not been the car's strength earlier in the year.
We could see improvements from the German team in overall competitiveness, and the Mercedes duo could challenge Sergio Perez, Oscar Piastri and Carlos Sainz. A win, however, seems out of the picture for now.
#2 There's not going to be much separating the top 3 teams
Many have given their opinion on Red Bull returning to a comfortable lead in Barcelona as F1 returns to 'normal tracks'. It won't come as a surprise if the team is back at the front. It also won't come as a surprise if Max would have had to work very hard for that position.
The curbs have been the story of the last four races, where Red Bull's struggles have been handed out to them. It's not only the curbs here, though. It's just the overall nature of the track and the way in which McLaren and Ferrari have closed the gap to the front.
Expect top three teams to still be within striking distance of each other at the F1 Spanish GP, as it's not going to be a one-way street any which way.
#1 Max Verstappen wins the F1 Spanish GP
Max Verstappen has won two of the last 4 races and has been challenged quite a bit this season. Having said that, the Dutch driver has shown why he is considered by many the best driver in F1. He doesn't make mistakes, his race craft as well as qualifying pace is top notch and most importantly he's making the difference.
That is precisely why we're picking Max Verstappen to win the F1 Spanish GP this weekend.
