2025 F1 Australian GP: Qualifying Predictions

The first day of the 2025 F1 Australian GP race weekend is done and dusted. We've had two hours of running in FP1 and FP2, and things have been more or less smooth. Arguably Haas was one team that had a setback when Ollie Bearman crashed out, but other than that, teams ran through their programs as they got ready for the first race of the season.

We had Charles Leclerc topping the timesheets by the end of the day, and the Ferrari driver was closely followed by the McLaren duo. The teams have now more or less finalized what would be their car set-ups as they head into the business end of the weekend.

As teams head to Saturday for the first qualifying session of the day, what can we expect? Let's take a look at our predictions for the F1 Australian GP Qualifying.

#5 The gap within the field is going to be small

If there is one person from the F1 paddock whose word should be listened to and agreed with, then it is James Vowles. The Williams team principal knows the sport, but more than that, he's more than willing to not put on a facade and be very open about things. James has maintained that the gap between teams this season is going to be very small.

There are hints of the same already in practice sessions, but in qualifying, this is arguably going to be the first takeaway. During the F1 Australian GP Qualifying, the gaps between cars are going to be miniscule, and, as a result, it's going to come down to the drivers extracting the final ounces of performance from the cars.

#4 Liam Lawson doesn't make it to Q3 while Carlos Sainz does

Liam Lawson's start to life at Red Bull has not been ideal. The Kiwi was nowhere during the practice sessions, and slowly but steadily this became a feature of his day. He's not in any which way comfortable in the car right now. At the same time, Red Bull itself is not the most competitive car on the grid either.

You add it up, and you have a scenario where the Kiwi might not have the best start to life at the Milton Keynes squad. We do not expect Lawson to make it to Q3 in the F1 Australian GP Qualifying.

Carlos Sainz, on the other hand, is riding high on confidence in his Williams. The run on mediums was impressive and so were the long runs for the Spaniard. Expect the former Ferrari driver to make it into Q3 in his first qualifying session with the team.

#3 Max Verstappen will qualify in the top 2 rows

There is once again a lot of doom and gloom at Red Bull after the first day of running in the F1 Australian GP, but a lot of it is a bit misplaced. The gap to the top two teams is decent, and it is going to take a step from the car to catch them. At the same time, Red Bull is firmly placed as the third-fastest car on the grid right now.

With the gaps not expected to be huge, a lot would depend on the drivers maxing out everything from the car. Could we expect Max Verstappen to drag every final tenth and beat at least one of the drivers from the top two teams? Probably not. We're backing Max Verstappen to bank a position in one of the top two rows for the F1 Australian GP.

#2 Lewis Hamilton will not be in the top 5, neither will Kimi Antonelli

If there's one thing that's already quite revealing when it comes to the intra-team rivalries, then it's the fact that the drivers that are new to the team are taking some time to get used to the cars. Both Mercedes and Ferrari appear to have this, as Lewis Hamilton and Kimi Antonelli have been a step behind their respective teammates.

In a field where things are as close as they get, the gap to the teammates is going to cost these drivers as we expect neither of the two to make it to the top 5 in the F1 Australian GP Qualifying.

#1 Charles Leclerc secures pole position for the F1 Australian GP

Finally, now talking about the big prize. The battle for pole position would feature Charles Leclerc, Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri. These three drivers have appeared to be the most comfortable, although one thing that has been a feature is how Leclerc's Ferrari looks in the final sector compared to both Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri.

The Ferrari appears to be a wild beast in those final sections that Leclerc has been able to tame, while the McLaren looks more in control and does not require as much input from either of the drivers. With that being said, it does appear that this latest version of Ferrari is arguably the best suited to Charles Leclerc's driving style, who is at ease with it, and when it comes to the battle for pole position at the F1 Australian GP, it's hard to look beyond him.

In our preview, we had backed Charles Leclerc to win the F1 Australian GP and lay down a marker. We might be looking at something similar in qualifying in the battle for pole.