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The 2025 F1 Bahrain GP will be the first night race of the season. It had almost become a habit to kick the season off with the race in Sakhir with quite a few questions unanswered, but this time around, we're going into the race with a lot more clarity.
McLaren seems to be the benchmark. However, the chasing pack is not too far behind, and the racing has suffered a bit this season because of an increase in turbulent air compared to what we were accustomed to.
As we head into the F1 Bahrain GP, we have the top 2 drivers in the championship separated by just one point. So, what can we expect from the race weekend? Let's take a look.
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#5. Wheel-to-wheel racing would be better
"Racing" itself has been under the scanner after the F1 Japanese GP, where it was nigh impossible to pull off overtakes. This weekend, however, things should be better. Some of the factors that hurt racing in Suzuka were not only the track but also the lack of tire degradation.
Tire degradation this weekend will open up the window for multiple stops, and that should mean a more strategically flexible race where teams will have an opportunity to mix things up. Would it be markedly better? Probably not, but it should be an improvement.
#4. Haas surges closer to the front of the midfield
Haas has a fundamental issue with the car, which comes up mostly on tracks with quite a few high-speed sections, and the team is trying to fix it. This was precisely why the pre-season test in Bahrain was more or less competitive for the car as compared to the race in Australia.
For the F1 Bahrain GP, expect Haas to get back to being the 5th or 6th fastest car and once again fight for points.
#3. Mercedes will be 4th fastest
George Russell has already hinted that Mercedes has been flattered in the first three races, primarily because the temperatures have been lower, and that has helped the car. The race in Bahrain would have higher temperatures, and tire degradation would also be a factor.
Bahrain has not been a Mercedes-friendly track since 2021, and we might see the same this weekend.
#2. Ferrari is a wildcard
The reality of Ferrari's form guide in 2025 has been that few, including the team, have any idea of how it's going to do over a race weekend. Going into the F1 Bahrain GP, the sentiment remains the same. The car has some fundamental issues that have been unearthed after Japan.
Whether those issues would be addressed and resolved is a big question. Regardless, Ferrari has been a formidable force at the F1 Bahrain GP during the ground effect era. Charles Leclerc won the race in 2022, and the car has been a close second to Red Bull on other occasions.
Could we see the same this weekend and even expect a Ferrari win? We could potentially have Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton at the top of the podium in the F1 Bahrain GP, or we could have both of them disqualified for something at the end of it. Nobody knows.
The team is a complete wildcard this weekend, and that is arguably the best way to describe it.
#1. Max Verstappen wins the F1 Bahrain GP
When it comes to bold predictions, does it get bigger than this? The answer is probably not. McLaren has been the benchmark in the first three races, and it's not as if Red Bull has shown any tangible improvement yet. There were, however, a few key areas where Max Verstappen was quicker than Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri in Suzuka that could help in Bahrain as well.
The first is the fact that Red Bull tends to hold the edge when it comes to straight-line speed, and the second is Norris' pointing out that McLaren is slower in the slow-speed sections of the track. For the F1 Bahrain GP, there are three long straights where Max Verstappen could have an advantage, and if we couple them with the slow-speed sections, then there are areas where a gap could be pulled out.
There are question marks over Red Bull's ability to manage tires that could work against Max Verstappen, but if the driver is able to secure pole position, we could be in with a shot to make it three out of three in the F1 Bahrain GP.
