2025 F1 Chinese GP: Race Predictions

The grid for the 2025 F1 Chinese GP has been set and we have Oscar Piastri on pole position with George Russell alongside him in P2. The second row features Lando Norris and Max Verstappen as the top 2 drivers in the championship standings renewing their rivalry.

The third row of the grid is sprint race winner Lewis Hamilton with Charles Leclerc alongside him in P6. There has been a glimpse of how the racing could with the sprint giving us a decent indication but what can we expect from the second race of the season?

Let's take a look as we share our predictions for the 2025 F1 Chinese GP.

#5 Tire degradation is going to play a major role

The sprint indicated that tire strategies are going to be pivotal in the race. How pivotal? Well, other than the fact that clean air is very important, we're going to see teams making marginal calls.

On one side, the undercut is going to be very powerful, but on the other hand, if you try to conserve your tires during one stint to extend it, the fresher rubber advantage might not necessarily be enough, as it looks like following another car through turn 13 is very hard. Tire degradation is going to be a concern for sure, but a bigger concern would be how the teams use their race strategy to combat it.

---

#4 Most of the action would be in the midfield

The drivers from the top 4 teams may be playing the long game when it comes to avoiding making overtly aggressive moves and costing themselves. This was evident in the sprint, and it has been evident in the manner the racing has been at the front during the F1 Chinese GP.

Most of the action that we're going to see during the race is going to be between the non-points scoring positions. The midfield drivers know what is at stake, and they would be the ones gambling on different things and even trying out unorthodox things.

---

#3 One of the Ferrari drivers finishes on the podium

Unless Ferrari has made some serious changes to the car from the sprint to the qualifying, then the car's race pace is certainly something that would be exploited by both Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc.

The track in Shanghai is front-limited and if Ferrari can keep them in good shape, then we're going to see the duo making progress. Lewis Hamilton has been the better of the two in the F1 Chinese GP this weekend, but we cannot rule out either of the two making use of better tire management to progress through the field.

---

#2 George Russell doesn't finish on the podium

This might come as bad news for the George Russell fans, especially after his stunning qualifying session, but a podium for the British driver is going to be very hard to come by.

The car is arguably worse on its tires as compared to the likes of McLaren, Ferrari, and Red Bull. It will be interesting to see how much Russell can use the free air to keep the chasing pack behind, but with the F1 Chinese GP expected to have multiple stops, a podium seems highly unlikely.

---

#1 Oscar Piastri wins the F1 Chinese GP

Unless the Ferrari duo has a stunning start to the race and is mixing it with the McLaren duo, its very likely that Oscar Piastri's key challenger is going to be Lando Norris. The Australian's teammate is starting the race in P3, right behind him. In terms of pace, there's little to choose between the two, but even if there was, in the F1 Chinese GP, the only way to jump a car or pull off an overtake is by either trying an alternative strategy or hoping that this can be pulled off on track when tires start losing their sheen.

Unfortunately, it becomes very hard on a track like the Shanghai International Circuit to pull off such overtakes. At the same time, when you're battling your teammate, an alternative strategy route is something that the team might not allow you. Unless Lando Norris has a stunning start to the F1 Chinese GP, something that he's not had for a while, it's advantage Oscar Piastri, and we're backing him for the win.