2025 F1 Japanese GP: Preview and Predictions

The 2025 F1 Japanese GP will be the third race of the season and at a time when McLaren could be a step ahead of everyone else. The first two races of the year have seen Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri pick up a win each, and the kind of gap the car has had over the chasing pack has been concerning.

This weekend, we head to Suzuka for the F1 Japanese GP, and things have changed since the last race. Liam Lawson is not a Red Bull driver anymore, as Yuki Tsunoda has replaced him. The Kiwi would go back to Racing Bulls in a move that has the potential to be actually beneficial for him.

There is, however, a bigger fight that's brewing slowly at the front of the grid between Lando Norris and his teammate, Oscar Piastri. The first two races have seen team orders come into play. What can we expect in the third race of the season? Let's take a look.

2025 F1 Japanese GP: Preview

Key Storylines

#1. Yuki Tsunoda at Red Bull

Yuki Tsunoda might just have the biggest spotlight on him this weekend. He's not only debuting with Red Bull, but it is also his home race. In terms of performance, the odds are against him. In terms of PR, the odds are against Red Bull. How both parties handle themselves is going to be intriguing.

#2. Max Verstappen rumors

With every misstep that Red Bull makes, the rumors of Max Verstappen not being happy intensify. He did like the post from Giedo van der Garde thrashing Red Bull's decision to fire Liam Lawson, and Marko has also revealed that the driver didn't want the Kiwi to be released.

Red Bull's performance on the track is not great. The team is not the benchmark anymore. The F1 Japanese GP race weekend will see Max Verstappen face the media, and there will be a keen interest in what he has to say.

#3. What will be the pecking order?

The first two races have seen McLaren with the fastest car on the grid. The gap has varied, and because of that, the vibes around what the rivals could achieve have continued to change.

The layout for Suzuka indicates that McLaren should do well. We might see the gap increase further, and the fast-speed sections are just perfect for the car. We'll have to wait and see, however, because there are quite a few sections where a Ferrari or Red Bull could do a better job. It's still the early days in F1, and hence, it would be too early to jump to conclusions just yet.

Form Guide

In form

George Russell is one name that stands out this season, having surpassed the expectations to a certain degree. The Mercedes driver has finally had an opportunity to step out of the shadows of Lewis Hamilton, and it worked like a charm.

The driver is taking over the role of a leader in the team, and he's getting results on the track. When it comes to making the most of the package under him, Russell has been on par with Max Verstappen in the first two races.

Out of form

There is a phrase that we often use at least once every season: "What the hell is going on at Ferrari?" This just typifies what has been a surprisingly poor start to a season by a team that almost won the championship last season.

Questions have been raised about how the pre-season expectations of a title are now in the gutter. There are indications that the car is stronger than what it has shown, maybe the second-fastest on the grid.

The problem is that the results don't show that, and until a reliable solution is found, it's going to be hard to take the team seriously. The 2025 F1 Japanese GP is going to be interesting because the car was on the podium here 12 months back. 12 months is a long time, though, and it will be interesting to see where the car ends up this weekend.

Driver in spotlight

It's hard to look further than Yuki Tsunoda. This might just be his peak career moment. The Japanese driver knows he's in a sink-or-swim moment at Red Bull. At the same time, Yuki has his opportunity with a top team now, and he's starting things at his home race in Suzuka. The script is already in place for the diminutive superstar to kick things off.

2025 F1 Japanese GP: Predictions

Who wins the race?

The F1 Japanese GP should be a circuit that favors McLaren, and the gap could potentially be bigger on this track than on others. Coming to the drivers, Suzuka is a track where Lando Norris has almost always had something in hand compared to his teammates.

This was a track where Norris had a definitive edge over Oscar Piastri as well last season. McLaren can be a tough car to drive, but we're backing Norris to make a comeback this weekend and clinch his second win of the season.

Biggest surprise of the weekend? (Driver)

It's the F1 Japanese GP, it's Yuki Tsunoda's debut with Red Bull, and we're just being a bit delusional here. We're backing the young driver to have a strong debut with the Austrian team and be a marked improvement on Liam Lawson. Could that be the case? In all fairness, every odd is against him, but we're backing the young driver to shine at Suzuka.

Biggest surprise of the weekend? (Team)

Ferrari is one that should ideally have done a better job with the car in the first two races. The team has had two poor weekends so far, and when that happens, it does make you think about where the team stands in the scheme of things. For the F1 Japanese GP, we're backing Ferrari to be a podium contender this weekend.

Biggest disappointment of the weekend? (Driver)

The track at Suzuka requires a lot of confidence to put together a strong lap time. At the same time, the track is also not the best when it comes to providing opportunities to pull off overtakes.

Qualifying is important for success at the F1 Japanese GP, and a driver like Kimi Antonelli, who has struggled to put together that perfect lap, might be the one who struggles to put together a strong result this weekend.

Biggest disappointment of the weekend? (Team)

If it rains, it could switch things around, but if it stays dry, Red Bull's prospects do not look great. One of the major issues that the car continues to have is the inability to ride the kerbs.

The track layout for the F1 Japanese GP is quite challenging when you consider the weather, and hence, we might see Red Bull drop down to 4th fastest in the pecking order. Things could, of course, change if we have a wet track, but on a dry track at the F1 Japanese GP, the car might not be as potent.