2025 F1 Japanese GP: Qualifying Predictions

The first day of running in the 2025 F1 Japanese GP ended with the familiar Papaya-themed car leading the way, but the second free practice session was hardly conclusive as most of it was red-flagged. There was, however, meaningful running before and after the stoppages.

The track in Suzuka is a very interesting proposition, as it is not only about having a strong top speed. There are other factors as well that are involved here, which include the ability to be brilliant out of traction zones and impressive aerodynamic efficiency. You also have to make sure that you keep your tires alive by the end of the lap, as that is certainly a challenge.

After the first day of running is done and dusted, how do we expect the qualifying to pan out? Let's take a look.

#5 The rookies (except Kimi Antonelli) will impress

One of the rookies had a shocker today with Jack Doohan misjudging the DRS flap into turn 1 and, hence, having a massive crash. With that being said, the F1 Japanese GP is a track where talent tends to shine. Almost every driver loves the track, and rightly so.

The new kids on the block, be it Ollie Bearman, Isack Hadjar, Kimi Antonelli, Jack Doohan, or Gabriel Bortoleto, have a challenge in front of them in qualifying, and we're backing them to perform. Would they beat their respective teammates? Maybe not. But they would be competitive, and for the younger crop, that has to be the primary thing at this stage.

We've not kept Kimi Antonelli in the same bracket for now because the young Italian has not been as competitive against George Russell during the F1 Japanese GP race weekend and might struggle in qualifying as well.

#4 Carlos Sainz doesn't make it to Q3

Williams should be one of the more competitive cars in the midfield at the F1 Japanese GP. Looking at the running on Friday, that belief does get reinforced as well. With that being said, the gaps are going to be small, and while it does appear that Carlos Sainz has started to close the gap to Alex Albon, the gap is still there.

The Spaniard's struggle has more or less been around qualifying, and with the margins being as small as they are right now, we do not expect Sainz to make it to Q3 in the F1 Japanese GP qualifying.

#3 Liam Lawson qualifies ahead of Yuki Tsunoda

This is not a dig at Yuki Tsunoda in any which way, nor is this an attempt to big up Liam Lawson. What this is, ideally, is an appreciation of how good the Racing Bulls are around Suzuka. On one hand, the Japanese driver has shown impressive performance alongside Max Verstappen, the Kiwi driver has also kicked things off pretty well at his new home.

The Racing Bulls kids are going to run Max Verstappen close at the F1 Japanese GP, and if that happens, we do expect Yuki to be a few tenths behind and, hence, lose out to Liam Lawson in the process as well.

#2 George Russell and Max Verstappen make it to top 5

The Mercedes in the hands of George Russell has appeared to be a potent beast for the most part. Around Suzuka, it does appear that the car has found its groove, so much so that even the McLaren duo singled out the Brit.

Challenging McLaren for pole position is going to be a tough ask, as the car does appear to have a higher potential lap time in the bag. Russell should, however, be just a smidge behind.

The same goes for Max Verstappen, as the driver admitted on Friday that he wasn't comfortable with the car. Red Bull has an impressive simulation setup in place that has helped the team make impressive gains from Friday to Saturday. We'll expect the team to do so again, as the 4x F1 champion should qualify within the top 5 for the F1 Japanese GP.

#1 Oscar Piastri secures pole position for the F1 Japanese GP

Now, let's talk about the battle for pole position, and it would come down to the McLaren duo. Historically, if we look at it, Lando Norris tends to have the edge over Oscar Piastri in qualifying.

At the F1 Japanese GP this weekend, however, it does appear that Australian has the edge this weekend with the momentum of winning the race in China and outpacing Norris across the weekend.

If we have to take a pick on who secures pole position for the race on Sunday, we're going with Oscar Piastri.