2025 F1 Predictions: Expected pecking order after pre-season test

The three days of the F1 pre-season test were interesting with teams unveiling their 2025 challengers for the first time. It was, however, a strange one as well, as for the first time since the sport has made it a point to visit Bahrain, we had rain making an appearance.

One of the reasons why F1 moved from Barcelona to Bahrain to conduct pre-season tests was because of the weather. With temperatures dropping significantly, there were surely a few who couldn't help but see the irony of the entire situation.

With that being said, there were quite a few important key takeaways that included the potential F1 pecking order as we get ready for the season.

Before we get to the pecking order, it's important that a few disclaimers are given when it comes to what happened in the F1 pre-season test and how it could be potentially deceiving.

Important disclaimer for the F1 pre-season test

#1 The conditions were not representative

Some of the biggest disclaimers that one needs to keep in mind are the fact that the conditions in which the test has been conducted are not representative in any way.

Unlike what has been the norm, Bahrain was uncharacteristically cold this time around, and what that meant was tests ultimately favoring cars that were relatively adept at running in colder conditions.

We've already seen it last season that temperature plays a giant role in determining the pecking order. If that variable is already this extreme, then it would surely play a role in what we see as the possible pecking order.

#2 Track characteristics play a major role

Bahrain is not a unique track per se, as the track is arguably one of those where quite a few characteristics of cars can be judged. There are fast-speed sections, traction zones, and long straights as well. With that being said, is the form in Bahrain an indicator of how a car would behave in Australia?

The answer to that question is 'probably not'. And that is precisely why a definitive idea about car characteristics cannot be made based solely on F1 pre-season tests.

#3 The gap is going to be small

Finally, and arguably the most important point, is the reminder that these somewhat prescriptive regulations are at the end of their lifecycle. What this also means is all teams are scampering to find improvements on their respective cars.

While there is improvement for almost every team, we're likely going to see a shrinkage of the field spread (i.e., the gap between the fastest and the slowest). When that is the case and the teams are separated by a few tenths, it becomes very hard to find the exact pecking order.

With that being said, the F1 preseason test provided quite a few key learnings, and according to them, here's the pecking order at the end of three days.

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Predicting the F1 pecking order

#10 Sauber

Sauber is not in good shape at the moment, and it looked completely out of sorts during the test as well. The problem with the car is not the handling issues, which, if alleviated, would make the car better, but the fact that it is slow.

It's an underdeveloped machinery, arguably a testament to how poorly Audi has managed its preparations before entering F1.

#9 Racing Bulls

While there is a clarity over where Sauber is, from P9 to P5, the gaps are much smaller, and hence a definitive answer is going to be hard. For now, we've put Racing Bulls in P9, but this is primarily based on the fact that the team's run plan was very under the radar, and there wasn't much focus on pushing the car a lot more than it was needed. There could be a case that the car is much better, but we've just not seen that yet.

#8 Aston Martin

According to Fernando Alonso and Aston Martin itself, the latest iteration of the challenger from Silverstone is a step up from what the team built last season. On track, however, it's been tough to gauge how good the car is.

Whether it is an improvement or not and whether it puts the team in a more competitive position is something we're yet to see. For now though, we're putting Aston Martin at P8 in the pecking order.

#7 Haas

Haas is one of the teams that have not truly relished the colder temperatures that the F1 pre-season test offered in Bahrain. The car looks good and more or less benign. Ayao Komatsu claimed that the team has made a remarkable jump.

We're yet to see how big of a jump it is, because other than the countless long runs the team did, Esteban Ocon's performance runs late in the third day were with a compromised package, whose engine cover had come off earlier in the day.

Haas would be in the mix for points, but for now, with the evidence that we have, we're only putting the car in P7 in the F1 pecking order.

#6 Alpine

What a difference a year makes in the midfield for Alpine. The team was nowhere in 2024, but in 2025, it might be back to being the leader of the second group of cars. The car looks better this season, and the two drivers have been reasonably impressive.

The French team should be more or less near the front of the midfield, but the relative gap to cars like Williams and Haas is going to be tricky to find out.

#5 Williams

That fast lap from Carlos Sainz on the second day was something. The laps from Alex Albon on the third day were further confirmation of the team's decent pace. The thing about the Grove-based squad is that the team has shown its hand, and whether rivals can match it or not is what is going to be the next key step.

#4 Red Bull

Red Bull could potentially be even quicker than 4th fastest because the team was very focused on a lot of the experimental runs during the three days. If there is one impression that seems to stick for now, it is the fact that the car is still right on the edge. There's still a lot of difference that Max Verstappen's talent is making to the car, something that won't be music to the ears of Liam Lawson.

We could see Red Bull contending for the podium in Australia, and it won't be a surprise because the gaps between the top 4 won't be big. However, at the same time, for the time being, that car looks a handful even in the hands of the reigning F1 champion.

#3 Mercedes

At number 3, we have Mercedes for now. While several pundits have put the German team in P2, there's a caveat specifically pointed out by Toto Wolff, who said that the cold conditions that aided the team in 2024 have seemingly not had the same effect this season.

Could the cold conditions of the F1 pre-season test have flattered Mercedes a bit? It's possible, prompting us to keep the German team in P3 for now.

#2 Ferrari

Ferrari did appear to have a few issues with the balance, but it is not surprising for a car that struggled when the temperatures dropped below a point. Nonetheless, the car's foundation looks good, and more importantly, the F1 season kicks off in Australia, a race they dominated last season.

We could see the Ferrari duo fighting for the win or struggling to be in the top 5, such is the close nature of the performance that one could expect this season.

#1 McLaren

At the top we have McLaren. Although its not to say that the team has not addressed a few niggles here and there during the 3 days, but whenever the car is on track and you look at the stopwatch, it's almost always fast.

McLaren might be the best car in terms of versatility, but would it win the first F1 race in Australia? We'll have to wait and see.