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Mercedes was on cloud nine for the best part of the last decade. The 2014 F1 season saw the team shoot to the top of the standings with a power unit that was just miles ahead of everyone else. As a result, the team went on an eight-year dominant run.
From 2014-2021, Mercedes clinched eight constructor titles and seven drivers championships. During this time Lewis Hamilton was the lead driver at the team and he won six championships during this period as well.
Things changed when the ground effect era began in 2022. Mercedes brought a novel concept to the track that failed spectacularly. Since then, the team has not understood how to extract the most from the current set of regulations. The car is not good enough, and it has been highly unpredictable.
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Look at the growth or lack of growth trajectory from Mercedes and the fact that even Lewis Hamilton is set to abandon the project, is the German racing team a sinking ship? Let's take a look.
Mercedes is clueless about what's wrong
The first major red flag for any team when it comes to its prospects is how much clarity it has about the technical side of things. Last season, there were a few key takeaways when it came to car understanding.
Red Bull started the season on the front foot and continued to make the most of its understanding of the car. Ferrari was a team that had to tame its challenger, where it struggled to find a decent level of understanding at the start of the season.
McLaren was another team that changed the car concept early and was very confident in how it wanted to approach car development. Then came Mercedes and Aston Martin, two teams who were on shaky grounds because of a lack of understanding of their cars.
For the German team that has continued to be an issue this season, as well as even Toto Wolff has admitted that the team has no clue how to make the most of what it has.
Zero future projections
Lewis Hamilton leaving Mercedes is a massive blow to the team. A driver with whom the team scripted what was an epic record-breaking partnership over a decade was no more going to be a part of the team.
Once this became evident, it was time for Toto Wolff to think ahead into the future and how he wanted to shape it. The possibility of Kimi Antonelli being the driver of the future gained momentum. Then came the news of Red Bull experiencing complete turmoil and Max Verstappen becoming an option.
If a driver of the caliber of Max Verstappen is on the market, any team should go for him without any doubt. This was precisely what Toto Wolff did when he openly courted him in Bahrain and Jeddah.
However, that storm in Red Bull seems to have passed by now. Christian Horner has regained control and the possibility of Max Verstappen leaving the team seems remote. Yet, Toto Wolff continues to court the driver publicly.
So much so that the Austrian has openly claimed Max Verstappen is the best driver in F1. All this time, George Russell is on the same team and doing a brilliant job. One has to wonder what is Toto Wolff's plan for the future of Mercedes. Is it to build the team around George Russell? Or hire Max Verstappen and build a team around him?
What if Verstappen isn't willing to make the switch? What will Wolff do in that case? It is this uncertainty and indecisive nature which is not only shocking but also hard to understand. A team with the legacy that Mercedes has should be looking to chart a fixed plan for the future, and that should not be hinged on the public courting of Max Verstappen.
This is where the problem lies for Mercedes. It appears that the team has next to no plans on what the team needs to do next. If a team has no idea of what its short-term and long-term future would look like, can that team be successful in any way? It's hard to say because this just shows a lack of overall preparedness from the squad.
Lack of resource recruitment
In the last couple of years, there have been numerous reports of personnel joining McLaren, Aston Martin, or even Ferrari. Even RB has been on a recruitment drive recently as the team continues to grow.
How many new key personnel has Mercedes added in the last few years? Except for the recent signing of Simone Resta, there has hardly been anyone who has moved to the Brackley-based squad.
On the contrary, far too many resources have left the team in the last few years for different challenges. Mike Elliot is one of the more recent names to have done that, and arguably his absence is being felt by the team as well.
Overall, though, a team that continues to suffer from a resource drain and is unable to plug it completely cannot be a team whose prospects are great. At this stage, Mercedes is one team that has lost multiple key personnel, including its star driver, it has a lack of clarity of approach for the future and a lack of understanding of how it wants to get back to the front. Unless Toto Wolff finds a concrete way to stem the tide, the ship will continue to sink.
