3 reasons why Red Bull-Max Verstappen dominance could be coming to an end in 2024

6 races into the season, we've had three different winners, with Max Verstappen winning 4 and one each for Lando Norris and Carlos Sainz. In the pre-season when everyone saw the Red Bull and how visually different it was from last season, there was a thought that Adrian Newey had cooked up something very impressive on his drawing board once again.

Then came the first couple of races that showed Max Verstappen and Red Bull winning with a 20-second margin. Since then, we've had the Austrian team encounter some trouble with the setup in Melbourne, which helped Carlos Sainz win (as Max retired early).

Then we've had the race in Suzuka, where Red Bull's advantage compared to last season was comprehensively diminished, even though Max Verstappen still won comfortably. In the most recent race in Miami, we saw Verstappen beaten on pace by Lando Norris in his upgraded McLaren. A phenomenon that not many would have expected to occur this season after looking at the early season advantage and how the team performed in 2023.

Yet, here we are, in a scenario where Red Bull has already lost twice as many races in 2024 already as they did in 2023. There are a few factors that do hint that we're looking at an end to Red Bull's dominance and a more competitive field, let's take a look.

Why Max Verstappen-Red Bull dominance could be coming to an end

#1 McLaren's progress is tangible and Ferrari's upgrade has yet to hit the track

One of the biggest factors that would leave Red Bull and Max Verstappen worried is that McLaren's upgrades showed tangible progress. There was visible progress that the team made with those upgrades, and it helped them win the race.

What's an even bigger worry for the entire competition is that Miami is not a McLaren-friendly track in any way. It is a track that has long straights and a view of slow-speed sections that certainly don't gel well with what as the key strengths of the car.

The fact that it was this competitive on a track that was not at its best in terms of car performance shows what the potential is. On the other side, Ferrari has continued to be just a few tenths behind Red Bull since the start of the season. The team brings its major upgrade in Imola, and according to rumors, it should give the team a decent performance.

If Ferrari makes a jump and closes up to Red Bull as well, just like McLaren has, we're looking at a very condensed top 3, which would make things very interesting at the front.

#2 Red Bull has already brought a portion of its upgrade

Arguably one thing we need to keep in mind is that while Red Bull is yet to bring a major upgrade to the car this year, a part of it was brought in Suzuka.

Whether the impact was meaningful or not is hard to answer because Ferrari and McLaren have subsequently closed the gap to the front in the coming races. Miami showed that Ferrari and Charles Leclerc could have beaten Max Verstappen in the sprint if he had been more aggressive. At the same time, McLaren showed a better pace overall.

To add to all of this, one cannot dismiss the fact that, compared to its counterparts, Red Bull has less development time this season owing to its position in the championship.

Both Ferrari and Red Bull bring upgrades in Imola, and that race is going to be crucial when it comes to understanding where all teams stack up in the pecking order.

#3 The diminishing returns could be playing a role

The ground effect regulations, in essence, were always prescriptive in nature, and when that happens, the law of diminishing returns kicks in earlier than anticipated.

We're in the third year of the regulations, and this is more or less the time when the teams start catching up with the leader. Sure, Red Bull and Max Verstappen have been armed with the genius of Adrian Newey, the other teams are no slouches, and it would be unfair to expect them not to close the gap to the front.

We're reaching a point where the performance at the top is starting to level out. If that's the case, then finding more performance for the top teams would be a concern, and hence, close the gap to the top.

It is safe to say that just one race to jump to conclusions will be a bit premature, but if the same pattern repeats itself in the coming races, we're looking at the end of Red Bull-Max Verstappen dominance and possibly better days at the front.