Bahrain GP Preview: Will Nico Rosberg be able to finish where he starts?

Mercedes’ German driver Nico Rosberg celebrates after he took the pole position at the Bahrain International Circuit in Manama on April 20, 2013. (Getty Images)

Nico Rosberg put in a brilliant lap to earn a shock pole but the margin by which he did it over Sebastian Vettel and Fernando Alonso – considering how close the top teams were up until Qualifying – is rather surprising.

Nevertheless we shall look at some of the factors which might stop/help Rosberg winning the second race of his career with the cars #1 and #3 being his main challengers. Remember, the last time he started on pole, he absolutely dominated the race.

Mercedes‘ straight-line speed:

Yes, the Mercedes is a very fast car on the straights but it doesn’t have a very big margin over its rivals. In fact they recorded a speed slightly slower than Ferrari at the speed traps. It all depends on how good a start Nico gets. One of the main reasons he was able to dominate in China last year was that the Mercedes was the fastest in the straight line and he opened up a more than >1 second gap over Vettel and then disappeared into the distance. But this year, Rosberg has to watch out for the Ferrari of Alonso down the straights given Alonso gets Vettel at the start.

Rear-tyre limited circuit:

Unlike China, the track in Bahrain is a rear-tyre limited one. What that means is more performance is demanded out of the rear tyres because of the many slow corners present. That doesn’t bode well for the Mercedes man as rear-tyre wear has been a problem for the team since way back in 2010. Given that one of the DRS zones is after the slowest corner on the circuit, Rosberg might be a sitting duck a few laps into the race towards the end of the first stint.

Race start:

Nico Rosberg hasn’t been getting spectacular starts in recent races but being on the clean side of the grid might give him an advantage over Vettel. Given that, he again has to be very wary of the fast-starting Alonso behind him who has always moved ahead of his grid position come the end of Lap 1 at all three races so far. In that sense, Rosberg would be relieved to see Vettel in his mirrors at least in the beginning when DRS use is not allowed.

Pit Stops:

Given the high tyre degradation on the Mercedes cars, they are in for 3 stops at least. The mediums and the hards do not have a very wide performance gap, so that will make it interesting as to how long the stints are on both of the tyres. Ferrari is a little bit less severe on their tyres than Mercedes and Red Bull but the high temperatures and abrasive nature of the track surface would make it very tricky to try out 2 stops. So, in the area of pit stops Rosberg should be equal to his immediate competitors.

The Dark Horses – Massa and Raikkonen:

Two other drivers who might prove to be threats are Felipe Massa and Kimi Raikkonen. First of all, Massa is starting on the primes and although experts are saying that that is the wrong choice to start on given not much difference in performance, it will be interesting to see how his race pans out. Like last year here, the Iceman will again be a threat because of their extremely good long run pace as seen during Friday’s free practice sessions. Like Australia, others had performance drop-offs but Kimi continued to get pace from his tyres and Lotus will be trying to extend his stints and try and eke out a two pit-stop strategy.

Rosberg, Vettel, Alonso, Massa and Raikkonen all have a chance of winning the race but who will find a better and faster strategy than the other four? The Bahraini desert will give us the answer.