F1 2018: 5 Early Predictions for the Italian GP

After a very polarizing Belgian GP that saw a chaotic start transition into a rather by the numbers win for Vettel, we head to Ferrari (and Toro Rosso's) home track of Monza! One of the most beloved races on the calendar, The Cathedral of Speed is a crucial race for Ferrari and Vettel as he is still 17 points behind Hamilton. Considering the apparent engine advantage that Ferrari have over Mercedes, at a track like Monza, it will be a huge blow for the Italian outfit if they don't manage to take a load of points from Mercedes.

The Red Bulls have also admitted that their car won't be the best suited to Monza. This means that we could see midfield teams like Haas and Force India make the best of the opportunity and possibly grab a place or two in the top six. Overall, Monza is always a special race, and while we have no idea what will go down, like always that won't stop us from trying to guess!

#5 Gasly gets Pole

This is a bold prediction indeed, but we do have some semblance of reasoning behind it. 10 years ago at the Italian GP in 2008, a fresh-faced Sebastian Vettel took pole and victory in the wet at the Autodromo Nationale de Monza. This weekend as of right now, the weather forecast for the Milan area does predict rain on Saturday, and we have had a few chaotic qualies this season.

The Honda and Toro Rosso combo have also been relatively successful this season with the Red Bull junior team sitting in 7th with 30 points. Gasly has also proven himself as a capable driver with a P4 in Bahrain and having been confirmed as the next driver for Red Bull in 2019. Therefore, ten years on from Vettel's miracle pole in Italy, we believe that Gasly will repeat the feat in the wet and put an Italian car that isn't a Ferrari on pole.

#4 Ricciardo finishes in top 5 and sets the fastest lap

Daniel Ricciardo will be using Renault's 'Spec-C' engine at Monza this weekend. Ricciardo will receive a grid penalty because he is out-of-sequence on engine usage following failures earlier in the season.

The 'Spec-C' is an evolution of the current 'Spec-B' engine and believed to be significantly more powerful. According to the reports in a high-speed track like Monza, the new engine should be 0.3s faster in the Qualifying.

Daniel has already won the fastest lap award four times this season beginning from Austraila, China, Spain, and Hungary. We expect him to set the fastest lap of the race in the Italian Grand Prix in his upgraded Renault engine and also comfortably finish in the top five starting from the bottom of the grid.

#3 Only Racing Point Force India take Double Points

One of the biggest shocks in Belgium was the stellar performance put on by Perez and Ocon in their 'first race' for the newly christened 'Racing Point Force India.' After locking out the second row in a wet Quali, the Pink Panthers fought hard to maintain their double points and eventually finished P5 & P6, grabbing 18 points to pick up 9th in the constructors' championship.

Force India do have an air of consistency about them, especially last season, and we believe that with this new era, they will show more of the same. In what we believe will be an odd Monza race, we see only the Pink Panthers landing both cars in the points while the other teams face problems for at least one of their cars. Ocon and Perez are solid drivers and with the Frenchman specifically in danger of not having a seat, getting points in Monza would be a great help.

#2 Gasly and Verstappen fight for P3

While we see Gasly starting on Pole for the race, it will be hard to see him keeping that position until the end of the race. However, considering how skilled a driver he is, we see him holding on to the P4 at worst in the race. And to decide whether he can get that last spot on the podium, it could be that Gasly will have to fend off his teammate in 2019, Red Bull's Max Verstappen.

Max and Gasly have never really raced wheel to wheel in F1, predictably due to the difference in speed between the two teams. But with the two likely to do battle next year, we see a little preview coming up in Italy as Gasly has a chance to keep Max at bay in the rain where the drivers' skill comes more into play. Whether the Toro Rosso or the Red Bull comes out on top is to be seen, but we definitely predict the two future teammates battling for P3 at Monza.

#1 Vettel takes the Championship lead

With the likely speed advantage that the Ferrari will have at Monza, we don't see Vettel being denied the win even with a Toro Rosso in front of him on the grid. Vettel seems as determined as ever to win the championship and with momentum on his side after Belgium, we believe that the German will send the Tifosi home happy in Italy with a win that puts him ahead of Hamilton.

Considering that Lewis is 17 points ahead of Vettel, it could be that Vettel emerges from the race with an 8 point lead in the title race. Last year at Monza, Hamilton had the audacity to stand on the top step of the podium and proclaim that Mercedes power is better than Ferrari power. Now that the tides have apparently turned in Ferrari's favor, we see Vettel getting the victory in Italy and heartily proclaiming that at least this year, Ferrari power is better than Mercedes power.

Edited by Arvind Sriram