Kimi Raikkonen - US Grand Prix

Perhaps there won't be many people who dread it when Kimi Raikkonen wins a race, isn't it? And maybe, they don't because such a rare occasion, with all due respect, doesn't happen all that often.
Thankfully, akin to Halley's Comet, the Raikkonen win happened at the USA. But was the race-win always on the cards, given Hamilton's attacking form and Vettel who was all set to start in front of Kimi, had he not been awarded a grid penalty?
To be fair to Kimi, the Iceman did try everything in his ability to win at the Italian Grand Prix, where he not only shook his detractors' by first setting the fastest lap in the history of the sport during qualifying, and later by reclaiming the lead from Hamilton to emerge at the front at Monza in the early stages of the race.
That he was then passed again wouldn't really have ignited the faith of his backers for the US Grand Prix, another enthralling contest where the two once again battled, even as Kimi would better his Mercedes opponent.
But while the Iceman kept his cool and made most of his experience in bravely defending from arguably the most attacking driver on the grid, his tyres supporting his fight, would such a scenario have occurred had Vettel not been penalised that eventually compromised his race?. Also, Raikkonen benefitted from Mercedes' two-stop strategy.
One can debate that endlessly but not without congratulating the Finn who finally ended his draught.