F1 Bahrain GP 2022: Preview and Predictions

The first race of the 2022 F1 season, the Bahrain GP, is on our doorsteps now and we cannot be more excited about it. The race will kickstart what is expected to be a very interesting season and probably the start of an entirely new era in F1.

Before the 'five lights go out', this piece aims to get you the info around the Bahrain GP. Towards the end, we also give our predictions for the weekend. So without further ado, let's jump straight to it.

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F1 2022 vs F1 2021: What's changed?

First of all, the new season is also the start of a new era in F1. An entirely new and different set of regulations have been introduced and it remains to be seen which team has conclusively made the jump over the rest of the grid. It's not just the cars that look that different, however, as there are changes all over the place.

The tires

F1 is introducing an entirely different iteration of tires for the new generation of cars. Now 18-inch tires are going to replace their 13-inch counterparts. An early verdict on these tires? The drivers don't seem to mind them too much and the tires have received positive feedback so far.

The drivers

Yes, the team lineups have changed a bit since we last raced. George Russell has replaced Valtteri Bottas, Guanyu Zhou makes his debut, Nikita Mazepin is no longer part of the grid while Kevin Magnussen makes a return to F1 in the Bahrain GP.

The rules

Speaking of rules, there are two that stand out for now. Remember what happened at the Abu Dhabi GP when Michael Masi selectively moved five cars between Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton out of the way by allowing them to unlap themselves? Well, you can't do that anymore. From now onwards, all lapped cars will be allowed to overtake whenever it is deemed safe enough for them to unlap themselves.

The second and probably the more relevant rule that got removed is the mandate that the cars in Q3 had to start the race on the tires on which they did their fastest lap in Q2. While in the past this rule did use to throw a factor of variability in the race, it was slightly unfair to the drivers that had just scraped through to Q3. The new rule does bring a sense of equitability to the race.

The cars

Other than the visual changes that do seem obvious on the cars, there are some changes in the characteristics as well. The first is the re-introduction of the ground effect, after almost 30 years, that helps the cars to follow the others without losing too much downforce.

The cars should ideally be around a second per lap slower than last season but will now be much quicker in the fast-speed corners and even slower than last year in the slow-speed corners. It remains to be seen how much of an impact the new cars will have on overtaking, but initial impressions seem promising.

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F1 Bahrain GP Form Guide

Who looks good before the Bahrain GP?

After the pre-season testing that ended a week before the Bahrain Grand Prix, the pecking order does not look as clear as it used to in the last few seasons. It's hard to make a definitive pick on where everyone fits in this jigsaw puzzle. If early impressions are anything to go by, however, then Ferrari and Red Bull appear to be leading the charge.

Ferrari was the undisputed champion of testing until the last day when Red Bull's new aero upgrade bumped Ferrari down the order. There are still question marks on whether Ferrari was running the car lighter than the others. It does appear, however, that the Italian team has put together a good challenger. So for the first race of the season, if there are any teams that can be expected to lead the charge, then it's going to be Red Bull and Ferrari.

Who does not?

Mercedes turned heads when it introduced what could be termed a slightly novel and out-of-the-box solution to the new regulations. The 'no-sidepod' Mercedes stands out on the entire grid because of the way the German team has approached the new regulations, but when it comes to lap times and how the cars are behaving on the track, the reviews are not that positive.

It does appear that the team still needs to do a lot of work to understand how to extract the performance from the car. Can it get it done by the Bahrain GP? Well, Mercedes was able to do it last season, but then that season did not have Ferrari as a contender or a completely new set of regulations. This is the worst condition we have seen Mercedes in since the start of the turbo era in 2014 and it will be interesting to see if the German team can turn it around for the Bahrain GP.

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Key Storylines for the F1 Bahrain GP

#1 Who has the fastest car?

For now, it appears that Red Bull and Ferrari have stolen the march from the rest of the grid. The two teams have put together different ideologies while designing their cars but still come up with what seems to be pretty good solutions.

It remains to be seen, however, where Red Bull, Ferrari, and Mercedes stack up on the grid in terms of performance. Early impressions after the pre-season test indicate a pecking order for Red Bull, Ferrari, and then Mercedes. The thing is, it's hard to come to a conclusion based on testing because engine modes and fuel loads are probably some of the biggest variables that need to be accounted for.

It will also be interesting to see where Mercedes find themselves in all of this as they do have a huge question mark on their performance after a not-so-productive pre-season for the team. All will however come to a head at the Bahrain GP qualifying when the teams will finally unleash their cars with the softest of tires and the lightest of fuel loads.

#2 How does the midfield stack up?

An even bigger anomaly after the pre-season test was the way the midfield appeared to stack up. From 5th until 9th, it's hard to make a definitive pick of where the teams are in the pecking order.

The gaps during testing were minuscule between the teams and what it did reveal was a scenario where the onus would be on the drivers to pull out the lap that counts. Where do these teams stand in the pecking order? How far behind are they from the frontrunners? These are probably some of the more curious questions that need to be answered in these new regulations.

#3 How will overtaking get impacted by the new regulations?

Early impressions from drivers reveal that the new generation of cars is easier to follow as compared to the previous generation. To counter that, however, there is also skepticism around the reduced impact of slipstreaming as well.

What is the overall impact of these new regulations? It's probably going to need the race at Bahrain GP and a few others to finally understand if there are any improvements to wheel-to-wheel racing as compared to previous seasons.

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Predictions for F1 Bahrain GP

Race win

The first race of the season is the trickiest when it comes to making predictions. We haven't seen either of these cars pushed with the lightest of fuel onboard, so we don't have a definite clue of where these cars stand heading into the Bahrain GP.

If lap times and the way the cars look on track are anything to go by, however, it does appear that the tentative order is Red Bull, Ferrari, and Mercedes. Red Bull seems to hold the edge heading into the first race of the season. Should that be the case, it makes sense to hedge our bets and put our money on Max Verstappen to win the Bahrain GP.

Surprise of the Bahrain GP weekend

Team

If there was one thing that stood out during the pre-season tests, it was the competitiveness of the latest Haas F1 challenger. The team went through a lot in 2021 as it gave up on the season to mount an all-out charge on the new regulations.

The car looks great whenever it is out on track. Its lap times look even better if you take a closer look. For a team that was a legitimate backmarker for an entire season, in our view, Haas F1 is going to surprise everyone in this race and score points at the Bahrain GP.

Driver

One battle that everyone seems to be sleeping in before the Bahrain GP is the intra-team battle between George Russell and Lewis Hamilton. Whether out of respect for Hamilton or at the risk of not hyping Russell up too much, the media has been on the fence when it comes to looking at the potential battle between the two Mercedes teammates.

In our view, George Russell belongs on the big stage, and at the Bahrain GP he is going to surprise a few people in the paddock. It is hard to predict whether Russell will beat his more experienced teammate. We do expect him, however, to be very close to his teammate throughout the Bahrain GP and prove to the paddock that he does belong amongst the top drivers on the grid.

Disappointment of the Bahrain GP weekend

Team

The new regulations were supposed to trigger Williams' return to the midfield. The team had the perfect launchpad with the 2021 season featuring points and a podium. Yet, based on pre-season tests, it doesn't seem to have put together a challenger capable enough of fighting in the midfield.

In our view, with a weakened driver lineup and a sub-optimal challenger, Williams might just prove to be the biggest disappointment of the weekend.

Driver

Daniel Ricciardo needs a strong season at McLaren in 2022. The Australian driver, however, was forced to miss the pre-season test due to COVID. For a driver that needed a perfect pre-season, this surely wasn't one.

At the Bahrain GP, expecting Ricciardo to be back to full fitness and adapt to the McLaren is going to be a tough ask. In our view, Ricciardo is going to struggle massively during the Bahrain GP weekend and is going to be the disappointment of the weekend.