Felipe Massa: What does the future hold?

Where to for Felipe Massa?

Before discussing about the Brazilian’s future, here are some statistics which will go a long way in explaining what I am trying to say:

Teammate: Kimi Raikkonen (2007, 2008, 2009)

• Qualifying: Massa beats Raikkonen 25-19
• Average Grid Position: Massa (4.61) beats Raikkonen (4.84)
• Races: Massa beats Raikkonen 23-21
• Podiums: Raikkonen has the advantage 22-21
• Wins: Advantage Massa 9-8

Now compare it with:

Teammate: Fernando Alonso (2010-present)

• Qualifying: Alonso way ahead 50-11
• Average Grid Position: Alonso (5.38) beats Massa (7.92)
• Races: Huge disparity, Alonso beats Massa 54-11
• Podiums: Similarly, no contest. Alonso again ahead 37-8
• Wins: Says it all, Alonso 11 to Massa nil

The question now arises is why suddenly so much of a difference? Is this the same guy who was considered to take over the reins after the retirement of Michael Schumacher just as young Francois Cevert was expected to after playing second fiddle to Jackie Stewart some three and a half decades earlier? In fact, the way Massa won his first race in Istanbul in 2006 while his legendary teammate was battling out with Alonso far behind down the road announced the arrival of a new sensation. He won another race that year and that was equally dominant. Everyone expected him to really give new and highly-rated teammate Kimi Raikkonen a hard time next season. No doubt he did, as the stats show. In 2008, he stepped up a gear and outclassed his star stablemate fair and square, after having a shaky start to the season.

There have been three very important races in the Brazilian’s career which might have made a huge impact on him.

First was the 2008 Brazilian Grand Prix - the race where he was WDC for a few seconds only to be brutally brought down to earth when Lewis Hamilton, out of nowhere, clinched it on the last corner of the last lap.

Next, the 2009 Hungarian Grand Prix, where he suffered life-threatening injuries and carried a big scar over his left eye for the rest of the year.

And the last, obviously the 2010 German Grand Prix, when the comment – which is part of F1 folklore – from his race engineer Rob Smedley “Fernando is faster than you” put a huge dent in his confidence and clearly exposed his position as a No.2.

Is that all or did the management have some part to play in his thrashing at the hands of Fernando Alonso these last three and a half years? It is no secret that Alonso is Ferrari‘s “golden boy” and he has a very close relationship with president Luca di Montezemelo. It is very important for a driver to build the team around himself to get the undisputed No.1 status, just like Michael Schumacher had done a decade or so earlier but which Massa has clearly failed in achieving.

In fact, he has been very lucky to have his contract renewed even after a very poor start to 2012. There were two main reasons for that – the more experienced and better drivers were locked into contracts and secondly, the team needed a No.2 to avoid a McLaren-esque debacle.

The question is how long can Massa save his seat taking advantage of those reasons? Sadly, he hasn’t been having consistent performances by which he can strengthen his candidature. Accidents such as in the Monaco practice and Canada qualifying doesn’t serve his purpose either. The good thing for him is that the team still believes in him, but once they find a suitable replacement, a contract renewal will most likely not be on the cards.

But again, it will be difficult to find a No.2 who can play second fiddle to Alonso for a few years before the inevitable happens- Vettel joins Ferrari after Alonso vacates his seat. This is where Massa fits in very well as no new driver would want chances to win races being taken away from them – who would want to do a Barrichello all over again?

No driver would want to move to a less competitive team after Ferrari, but the fact that Massa will turn 33 next year would deter top teams from looking at him as an option. When we consider all these aspects, it becomes quite clear that Ferrari might be Massa’s last team in Formula 1 and it wouldn’t be a very big surprise if this year itself turns out to be his swansong.

The Brazilian is loved all around the world and everybody would be sad to see him go. But after all, this is the pinnacle of motorsport and only the best survive. We might see him following in the footsteps of another Brazilian Rubens Barrichello, who suffered an almost similar fate courtesy a man who ‘came, saw and conquered’ almost everything.