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Lewis Hamilton's speed in Barcelona showed that Mercedes made a comeback of sorts in the Spanish GP. The porpoising appeared to be gone. The car looked almost spectacular in the straights and fast speed sections. Despite the final qualifying times suggesting a gulf of more than half a second to the top two teams, Mercedes' race pace was far more encouraging.
The race saw George Russell score his second podium of the season. This one was more encouraging due to the underlying speed of the car. Even though the Monaco GP saw the German team taking a step back, the Spanish GP might just have sowed the first seeds of a rather tough decision that the team might need to make later this season.
Mercedes was in the "ballpark" of Ferrari and Red Bull in Barcelona
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One of the biggest takeaways after the Spanish GP was how much progress Mercedes had made with its upgrade package. If one traces the progress Lewis Hamilton made in the race after falling to the back of the grid after his first lap collision, it would reveal astounding speed from the Mercedes driver.
The seven-time world champion had one of the best race paces at the Spanish GP, comparable to that of Charles Leclerc's and Max Verstappen's. After falling to the back of the grid early on in the race, he carved his way through the field, using superior straight-line speed and overall performance to finish the race in P5. Bear in mind, this fifth position was a result of him slowing down at the end of the race and letting Carlos Sainz through.
According to Toto Wolff, if Lewis Hamilton had not been caught up in the collision with Kevin Magnussen on the first lap, he would have been fighting for the win. Looking at the evidence in terms of lap times, this certainly seems plausible.
British GP might be where Mercedes is back to front-running speed
After the Monaco GP, we have the Azerbaijan GP and Canada GP. While parts of the track in Baku, including the fast speed first and last sector, would play to the strengths of Mercedes, it's the bumpy middle section that could go against the team. Similarly, while Canada’s straights could help the German team, the slow-speed sections will take the advantage away from it and hand it to Ferrari and Red Bull.
It is the next upgrade at the British GP that is expected to be the next major step up for the team. Even Lewis Hamilton has targeted Silverstone as an event where Mercedes could get back to challenging for wins.
If Mercedes is able to reach the same level as Red Bull and Ferrari by the British GP, it could leave the team with a tough decision to make if it is serious about fighting for the championship.
Lewis Hamilton or George Russell? Tough decisions ahead
At the moment, George Russell has 84 points in the championship standings, while his teammate Lewis Hamilton has 50 points to his name. The championship leader Max Verstappen has 125 points on the board and enjoys a 41-point buffer to Russell and a 75-point buffer to Hamilton. Unless something drastic happens, Red Bull is expected to have a better car than Mercedes in Baku and Canada.
Even if we assume the best-case scenario (excluding extremities such as DNFs and freak results) in which both the Mercedes drivers drop 10 points in total in the next two races (keeping everything else the same, including the relative points gap between the two), it would still mean a 51-point deficit for George Russell and an 85-point deficit for Lewis Hamilton.
At this point, if Mercedes is as competitive as Red Bull and Ferrari, it would mean George Russell has 13 races to cut down a 51-point deficit to Max Verstappen while Lewis Hamilton has an even bigger task of overcoming an 85-point deficit. Overcoming such deficits is not the easiest when you're fighting against any good driver. But when that driver is Max Verstappen (or even Charles Leclerc), it becomes all the more difficult.
It is at this stage that Mercedes could face a tough decision: either it still divides its resources between the two drivers and gives them equal opportunity to fight for the title or it picks one of the two drivers as its title challenger and starts dedicating all the resources, all the upgrades, and everything else towards him.
Choosing the first option is going to make it next to impossible for either of the drivers to bridge the gap. By the British GP, Russell might approximately be two race wins behind while Hamilton might be faring even worse. Covering that kind of gap would require luck to play a significant role and that's not what you factor in while making strategic calls.
The second option of anointing one of the two drivers as the title contender is going to give the team the best shot. Mercedes, if it is serious enough to fight for the drivers' title will have to swallow the bitter pill and put in place a No.1 and No.2 driver dynamic for the rest of the season, in which everything within the team is concentrated around the No.1 driver.
The question though is who out of the two drivers gets the nod? On the one hand, you have the young charger in George Russell, who has held the upper hand this season and is 34 points ahead, while on the other hand, you have the seven-time world champion in Lewis Hamilton, a driver who has won 6 titles with the team and is one of the greatest talents to ever grace the sport.
While George is the future of the team, Lewis is the past and the present. If Mercedes relegates Russell to the second driver role, it would certainly be at a loss for words to explain to him why Hamilton is the better choice since Russell has already subjected Hamilton to one of his worst losing streaks in his career. To add to this, Mercedes risks annoying what would be its future star driver once Lewis Hamilton retires.
On the other hand, if the team decides to demote Lewis Hamilton to the second driver role, the backlash from the driver as well as from the media and the fans is going to be massive. Especially considering the kind of success the Hamilton-Mercedes combo has enjoyed in the past. Lewis Hamilton has a huge army of supporters and such a decision could turn the season into a PR disaster.
If Mercedes does end up getting on par with Ferrari and Red Bull, it will have some tough decisions to make. Will it choose to continue giving equal treatment to both its drivers or will we see a focused attack on the championship with one of the drivers? Despite Mercedes being just the third fastest car on the grid, there are certainly interesting times ahead for the team.
