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Max Verstappen and Red Bull had a weekend from hell at the 2023 F1 Singapore GP. The team and the driver turned up to the night race on the back of an impressive win streak (a 15-race run for the team and a 10-race run for the driver), They were also coming off a dominant race in Monza where the team secured a 1-2 finish.
The Austrian team was expected to struggle. This weekend was supposed to be the toughest for Red Bull. As it turned out, it did struggle but the struggle was far more than what had been anticipated. As it turned out, the team would not be able to get to grips with the condition throughout the weekend.
The car struggled with rear grip and both Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez found it hard to compete. This was the first weekend of the entire season where neither of the Red Bull drivers would make it to Q3. The race as well did not turn out the way the team would have wanted as Verstappen registered his first non-podium finish of the season.
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What made things interesting, however, and what set the conspiracy theories in motion was the fact that this was also the weekend when the FIA technical directive had become effective. Now there are multiple theories making rounds about the possible reasons behind Red Bull's drop in form.
But there is one burning question. What if Red Bull and Max Verstappen's drop in form was a result of the technical directive? Does that mean that the Austrian team was cheating earlier in the season? Does it mean that the RB19 was in reality an illegal car?
Before we answer this question, it's important that we first take a look at the magnitude of a drop in performance that we're looking at.
After that, let's take a look at possible theories that have been put together about the car's loss of performance. Finally, I will give my verdict on whether the RB19 was an illegal car.
How bad was the drop in performance?
To take a look at the magnitude of drop in performance we will compare how the RB19 fared in Zandvoort to how it did in Singapore. The reason why we don't take Monza into consideration is because it was a low downforce track and the demands for that track would diverge from what we have in the Dutch GP or the one in Singapore.
The Dutch GP saw Max Verstappen secure pole position by a gap of almost half a second over Lando Norris. The race was held in mixed conditions so it's hard to judge what kind of gap the Red Bull driver had over the rest of the field.
Moving on to the race in Singapore, Max Verstappen was eliminated in Q2. While his final lap was not optimal (he could have improved by a couple of tenths) he was around seven-tenths off the fastest time set by Carlos Sainz.
Even if we make a few concessions, it does appear that the Red Bull RB19 lost around a second per lap in performance as compared to its competitors.
What are the possible theories for the drop in pace?
The loss of performance has been a confusing development for everyone. There have been three theories that have been put forward to explain Red Bull's loss in form.
- Red Bull was forced to run a higher ride height because of Singapore's bumpy nature (by Mark Hughes, F1 Journalist)
- Red Bull is unable to find the right setup and working window for the car (Christian Horner)
- Red Bull's lack of development means that other teams have caught up (Lewis Hamilton)
It's hard to disagree that the argument could be made for either of these. Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez struggled big time with the lack of rear grip. That could easily be the result of Red Bull being unable to run the car at its normal ride height.
Lest we forget, the RB19's major strength has been the car's ability to run lower than its competitors if that was taken away as it happened in Singapore, it would become vulnerable.
There is an argument to be made about what Christian Horner and Lewis Hamilton said as well. Red Bull did work a lot on the car throughout the weekend had was visibly struggling to find the sweet spot. Maybe that played a role as the car was just not in the right working window.
Hamilton's suggestion does seem contradictory to what happened in Monza where Verstappen dominated, but it's quite pronounced right now that teams are bringing upgrades to their car while Red Bull isn't. Maybe in these specific conditions, it caught the team out? There is certainly an argument to be made on that front.
Finally though, when everyone including Mercedes boss Toto Wolff, Christian Horner, Lewis Hamilton, Carlos Sainz, and a few F1 pundits were asked if the TD19 played a role, everyone declined these suggestions.
Everyone had different theories but not one of them was committal when it came to pinning the blame on the technical directive. Everyone did agree on one thing though, if we go to Japan and Red Bull is still slow, then we can revisit this discussion.
This is exactly what brings us to the possible scenario where the technical directive did hamper Red Bull. Let's assume the position in the pecking order where Max Verstappen found himself is what will be the new normal for the rest of the season.
Does that the RB19 was illegal for the rest of the season? Let's take a look.
If it was the technical directive then were Red Bull/Max Verstappen cheating?
To answer this question, we need to educate our fellow F1 fans a little about these flexible-wing tests. The flexi wing phenomenon is something that's not new to the sport or even Red Bull for that matter. The reason behind that is it is hard to simulate the loads that would be experienced by a car in motion.
This is precisely why the load tests for flexible wings are iterated and modified time and again. This was one of the reasons why the FIA introduced the new technical directive because the teams had found a way around it.
If Red Bull and Max Verstappen lose competitiveness at this stage, it does not mean that the car was illegal or the team was cheating earlier in the season. It simply means that the team has had to modify its car for the next technical directive.
Hence, to answer the key question that has been doing the rounds on social media, if the Red Bull/Max Verstappen superiority ends because of the technical directive then it will not mean that the team was cheating or that the RB19 was an illegal car.
