Marussia: Ahead of Caterham by a nose?

In contrast, in comparison to the two other Ferrari powered teams, Marussia completed the fewest number of laps – just 30. Granted, the team did (as I mentioned earlier) only run for half of the test, so that might not be significant, but it does indicate that reliability is something that Marussia won’t necessarily be able to count on to give them the advantage over Caterham, particularly since the former have to adapt to a new engine supplier while the latter does at least have stability with Renault.

Caterham’s 2014 driver line-up: Kobayashi (L) and Ericsson (R), either side of third driver Robin Frijns

While Caterham have stability in terms of their engine supplier where their rivals don’t, it’s Marussia that have stability in terms of their driver line up, while it’s all change at Caterham. Marussia have retained Frenchman Jules Bianchi – an undoubted talent – and Englishman Max Chilton in 2014, while Caterham have gone for an all new pairing of Japanese driver Kamui Kobayashi – making a welcome return to F1 after a year out of the sport in 2013 – and rookie Marcus Ericsson, who makes the step up from GP2. The pairings are probably fairly evenly matched, but because Marussia know their two drivers pretty well, that might afford them a slim advantage, at least to begin with.

It is, however, unlikely that we’ll see either Marussia or Caterham making big steps forward in 2014. Williams, who struggled in 2013 and were the team most under threat of being overtaken by Marussia or Caterham in the Constructors’ standings, look to have made an inspired move by switching from Renault engines to Mercedes power units, meaning that the target for the two ‘newcomer’ teams is likely to be the Red Bull junior team, Toro Rosso.

A Minardi at Monaco in 2001, driven by future double world champion Fernando Alonso

Toro Rosso, the team that was formerly Minardi, one of F1′s great minnows, has also swapped engines, but it looks like they’ve made the wrong choice in switching from Ferrari engines to the same Renault units used by ‘big brother’ Red Bull Racing. Still, Toro Rosso probably has a bigger budget than either Marussia or Caterham, and let’s not forget that they are also Grand Prix winners, albeit at the hands of now four-time world drivers’ champion Sebastian Vettel, way back in 2008. They’re likely to retain an advantage over the new boys.

So while 2014 presents a huge opportunity for Marussia and Caterham, their prospects don’t look all that promising. If it proves to be the case that Marussia and Caterham are still battling it out between themselves at the back of the pack, it would be a worrying situation for F1. Indeed, unless the long mooted budget cap is agreed, the only opportunity for either team to make big strides forward might be to follow the Minardi example and sell up to someone able to inject a significant amount of cash.

Caterham Boss Tony Fernandeshas threatened to pull out of F1

Caterham owner Tony Fernandes has already threatened to pull out at the end of the year if results do not improve for his team, and you have to wonder whether Marussia might be in a similar position. It would be sad to see either team go the same way as the other 2010 new entry, HRT, but unless either can take advantage of the opportunity afforded to them by the regulation change this season, that may well happen.

What do you think about Marussia and Caterham’s prospects for 2014 and beyond? Will either team score points? Will Marussia be ahead of Caterham by a nose?