Max Verstappen will be making a big mistake if he leaves Red Bull for Mercedes

Toto Wolff appears to be hell-bent on his crusade to sign Max Verstappen as one of the drivers at Mercedes. The Austrian faced a rude awakening this year when the biggest star of the sport, his friend and driver, Lewis Hamilton, announced a shock exit.

Lewis Hamilton will move to Ferrari in 2025, leaving a seat open at Mercedes. Since the announcement, plenty of names have been thrown around as potential candidates that could replace the Brit. None have stuck, as Mercedes boss Toto Wolff seems determined to bring Max Verstappen to the German squad.

When Red Bull was going through a tumultuous time earlier in the year, Toto Wolff was seen having a conversation with Max Verstappen's manager and his father, Jos Verstappen. Since then, however, things have stabilized at the Austrian squad. Christian Horner's position does not appear to be under threat, just like it was a few months ago.

In a more stable environment and after winning almost every race he participates in, it would take a special kind of deal to lure Max Verstappen away from Red Bull. Having said that, if it does happen, it would be a disastrous decision for Max Verstappen to move to Mercedes.

To dig deeper into this debate, let's try to analyze what works and what doesn't when we talk about Max Verstappen potentially moving to Mercedes.

Max Verstappen's decision to move to Mercedes

What works

#1 The might of the German brand

The first thing one needs to understand is that Mercedes is not in F1 just to compete. The team is in the sport to win, and that hunger is only going to intensify when fellow German giant Audi makes an appearance in 2026.

Mercedes is going to put everything it can into the project to win. To add to this, the team knows how to win. The German squad is still the most successful in the last decade and that habit doesn't go away just like that.

To add to this, the Max Verstappen factor, a driver who is just brilliance exemplified, is what would give the team a further boost.

#2 The track record of producing the best power units

The last two separate power unit/engine regulations have seen Mercedes compete at the sharp end every time. The last year (2013) of the V8 power unit had Mercedes as the best engine.

The less we talk about the marauding V6 Turbo hybrid, the better it is, because that power unit was a thing of beauty. When it comes to building power units, Mercedes has not failed for a long time.

Come 2026, is it a guaranteed that the Mercedes power unit will be miles ahead of everyone else? Well, we cannot say that but what we can say is that it won't be too far behind the best one.

#3 James Allison is a brilliant engineer

James Allison at the F1 Grand Prix of Bahrain - Final Practice

Finally, a factor that does not get the credence it deserves is the James Allison factor. While Adrian Newey has certainly ruled the F1 paddock when it comes to building some of the best cars in the sport, James Allison's brilliance cannot be denied.

The Lotus cars of the 2012 and 2013 F1 seasons, which were built on a shoestring budget but were still capable enough of fighting for a win, were built by Allison. To add to this, the Renaults of 2005 and 2006 had Allison's imprints all over them.

Most recently, Allison became a part of the Mercedes squad in 2017, and since then, the team has gone on to win four more titles. The man knows how to build F1 cars, and one cannot overlook his genius.

What Doesn't

#1 The team has no clue about ground-effect cars

We're in our third year of these ground-effect regulations, and it is safe to say that Mercedes does not have a clue about how it wants to develop these cars. In what is the third iteration of building cars, McLaren and Aston Martin have leapfrogged the German team, and ironically, one of the teams uses the same simulator.

This is a bigger problem than just the simulators and the German team has not figured it out. The 2026 F1 regulations will have ground effect cars, and hence, that should ring the alarm bells for anyone looking to join Mercedes.

#2 It is operationally poor

Mercedes had its best day in terms of pitstops in China this past weekend. What's stark is that its best day saw the team only placed ninth and 10th in terms of its fastest pitstops.

In terms of strategy, the team has not been at the leading edge for a long time now, and that has certainly not changed in the ground effect era. One of the areas where Max Verstappen was at an advantage over Lewis Hamilton when the two battled in 2021 was that he had a strategy unit he could rely on. At this moment, Mercedes does not have that.

#3 Toto Wolff's leadership is not inspiring

Toto Wolff at the F1 Grand Prix of Japan - Practice

To add to this, in a recent feature, we talked about how Toto Wolff might not be the right man to lead the Mercedes revival. There's a lack of clarity when it comes to the future. There's a lack of certainty about what lies ahead for the team, especially keeping in mind that there is no idea who will replace Lewis Hamilton in 2025.

To add to this, the systematic drop from Mercedes in the pecking order has been something of a surprise for many, as Toto Wolff has been unable to assuage the slide in any way.

All in all, the kind of clarity you saw with Christian Horner when Red Bull was down in the dumps during the turbo hybrid era is missing with Toto, and that's certainly not inspiring for anybody involved.

#4 The 2026 F1 regulations are not power dominant

Arguably the most important thing that many are probably missing is that the new power unit regulations are not a drastic departure from what we have currently. Sure, there are variables involved.

We would use sustainable fuel, there would be a 50-50 division between the power generated from the electric and the internal combustion part of the power unit. But this is not as big a change as what we had when we moved from the V8s to the V6 Turbos.

Will the investment in the power units pay off? Yes, it should. But then it won't be as big a differentiating factor as it was in 2014, when the championship was pretty much decided on the basis of who nailed the power unit regulations. So, yes, Mercedes could advertise a great power unit to Max Verstappen, that alone should not be a factor in moving from Red Bull.

Conclusion

Max Verstappen is a smart and mature driver who's been in the sport for close to a decade now. Moving from Red Bull due to political reasons is something that would be understandable, but at the end of the day, if he's moving to Mercedes and if the car is just not good enough for him to win, it won't make sense.

For Max Verstappen, moving to Mercedes and leaving Red Bull while keeping an eye on the 2026 F1 season is an interesting prospect for the fans. It would, however, turn out to be a complete disaster because the German outfit is just not ready to compete at the front.