Mercedes and Lewis Hamilton's struggles at the 2022 F1 Belgian GP should not be a surprise, here's why! 

Lewis Hamilton's team radio with his Mercedes race engineer after the 2022 F1 Belgian GP qualifying revealed a lot. In case you missed it, here's what he said:

"Lewis Hamilton: What is the gap to pole position?

Race Engineer: 1.8 secs to Verstappen.

Lewis Hamilton: 1.8 secs?????"

The Mercedes driver's shock knew no boundaries at the time but you have to question one thing: should Hamilton be surprised? Coming into the 2022 F1 Belgian GP, he claimed that this weekend was his best opportunity to win a race this season.

With qualifying out of the way and the Mercedes drivers more than a second and a half behind the fastest lap time, that does not seem to be the case.

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The pattern of performances showed a clear trend

It was slightly surprising to see experienced pundits like Damon Hill proclaim that Lewis Hamilton was going to win the 2022 F1 Belgian GP earlier in the weekend. The team's six-race podium streak did give credence to Hill's predictions but the clear crests and troughs of Mercedes' performances indicated otherwise.

In the last five races, Mercedes has been very close to front-running pace (around 2-3 tenths down) on tracks like Silverstone, Hungaroring, and Paul Ricard. Hamilton was somewhat in outside contention for a win at Silverstone while he brought home a solid P2 result in Hungary and France.

Concurrently, though, Mercedes was visibly a step behind the frontrunners on tracks like Montréal and Spielberg that put a premium on straight-line speed. Spa-Francorchamps holds more similarities with the latter when it comes to reliance on straight line speed than the former three. If someone had looked at these patterns in performance, they would not have proclaimed a 'Mercedes resurgence' at a track like Spa-Francorchamps.

We don't do that often, but credit to the team at Sportskeeda who was one of the few in F1 media to pick up on this trend. In our preview and predictions for the 2022 F1 Belgian GP, we predicted that Mercedes would struggle this weekend.

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Lewis Hamilton's podium streak has been somewhat deceiving at times

Lewis Hamilton's last 5 race results are nothing short of staggering. With three P3 finishes followed by two P2 finishes, the Mercedes driver is in red-hot form. Having said that, while some of these results truly deserve credit, there are quite a few that deserve a second look.

Even if we take a cursory glance over the last five races, we will see four compromised races for Charles Leclerc, two for Sergio Perez, and one for Carlos Sainz and Max Verstappen each. Hamilton has been peerless in his driving and approach but he has surely had some help from an under-optimized display from Red Bull and Ferrari.

In terms of driving ability, it's hard to fault Hamilton in any way. Simultaneously, he would not have produced those results had Ferrari and Red Bull performed to their potential.

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The impact of the technical directive was overestimated

A bit too much has been made about the technical directive issued by the FIA. It was interesting to hear Mercedes driver George Russell openly questioning Ferrari and Red Bull in Hungary. He was rather adamant that the plank regulations should help Mercedes and bring the team closer to Red Bull and Ferrari. It seems even Lewis Hamilton bought into the hype and claimed Spa as his best opportunity to win.

What everyone missed before heading to the 2022 F1 Belgian GP were the car characteristics. The Mercedes W13 tends to produce excess drag. It has affected the team in both Canada and Austria and is affecting at Spa as well.

Irrespective of the impact of the technical directive, Mercedes did not have a car capable of challenging Ferrari and Red Bull at the 2022 F1 Belgian GP. It became evident when even the Alpines out-qualified the two Silver Arrows drivers. The team could see the technical directive bringing benefits to it. Sadly, it won't happen on tracks like Spa-Francorchamps.

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Lewis Hamilton could still win the 2022 F1 Belgian GP

Let's get one thing out of the way: if it is a straightforward race in which Max Verstappen's charge is not compromised at any stage, then a Mercedes win is out of the picture. In a straightforward race, Verstappen starting from P15 is the frontrunner to win the race.

Having said that, if it is not straightforward and Verstappen is compromised then we could be looking at a race where Lewis Hamilton is battling the likes of Sergio Perez and Carlos Sainz for a race win (in race trim, Alpine was not a match for Mercedes). In those circumstances, Hamilton can surely pull out a race win but that won't be because of the car, it will be because of his generational talent.