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If rumors and reports are to be believed, Franco Colapinto and Liam Lawson are in pole position to possibly take Sergio Perez's place at Red Bull. The Kiwi has been impressive whenever he's had the chance to perform in an F1 car, while the Argentinian has been a sensation as well.
To make things worse for the Mexican, Perez's form has been poor, to say the least. The driver has not been a match in any which way to Max Verstappen at Red Bull, and hence the team has found it hard to have two drivers capable of scoring big points when the opportunity presents itself. When it comes to Perez, it does appear that the writing is already on the wall.
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The Mexican's performances do not warrant another year with F1's best team. At the same time, are Colapinto and Lawson the right contenders to replace the Mexican and ultimately team up with Verstappen at Red Bull? Well, the answer is 'probably not.'
Why? Because, as the saying goes, "If you keep doing the same thing, you will continue to get the same results." Red Bull has been down this road already in the past, and it has not worked out for the team.
A young talent paired against Max Verstappen at Red Bull has been a spectacular failure
Pairing a strong upcoming talent alongside Max Verstappen is not something that Red Bull would be doing for the first time. The Austrian team has been on this path in the past as well where it backed its young drivers to replace outgoing Daniel Ricciardo and continue to perform at a similar level. The bubble first burst when Pierre Gasly was promoted in 2019.
A young and talented driver was teamed up with Verstappen after a strong start to his career at Torro Rosso. Well, the Frenchman lasted six months at Red Bull and was promptly replaced by another young talent in Alex Albon.
The Thai driver lasted 18 months but was mentally destroyed during that stint and ultimately made way for Sergio Perez. The problem with Red Bull is that it is a team built around Verstappen, and more often than not, what that does is that it makes it harder for the second driver to gain confidence. With a car built around the lead driver, it is hard anyway. But it becomes worse when you consider the fact that the lead driver is Verstappen.
As a result, the young driver, for whom this is still new, becomes overwhelmed with the pressure and starts performing even worse than he should. This was what happened with both Gasly and Albon, both of whom have gone on to be very capable drivers on the F1 grid.
What is the ideal profile for a Sergio Perez replacement?
The ideal profile of a driver who should replace Sergio Perez and be a Max Verstappen teammate is someone who has all the qualities of the Mexican but is probably a couple of tenths faster. What Red Bull got in Perez in 2021 was an able and willing deputy.
He was willing to play the team game, he was willing to let Max get the priority in everything, he was willing to even sacrifice his own race to do that and finally, he was mentally strong enough to withstand the pressure that comes from being the teammate of a great driver on a team like Red Bull.
One area where Perez has struggled and why this has given a sniff to the likes of Franco Colapinto and Liam Lawson is the overall performance. He has been slower than his teammate in general, but he's dropped further back as the car performance has suffered.
For Red Bull and Verstappen, the ideal driver continues to be someone who is experienced enough to know how the team dynamics would work and, at the same time, is fine with it.
Why neither Liam Lawson nor Franco Colapinto fit the bill
Is Franco Colapinto a bright young talent? From the limited appearances that he's had in F1, he looks like one. Is Liam Lawson a bright young talent? Just like Franco, you could say the same thing for the Kiwi. With that being said, has either of the two proven to be a bigger talent than Max Verstappen? The answer to that is probably no.
This is the reality of the situation that people do not understand the magnitude of the task in front of Colapinto and Lawson should either of them get a shot at Red Bull. It's not about getting the best result from the car as there is a bigger task at hand.
The challenge of the second Red Bull seat is that the driver is going into Verstappen's team, where everything is curated towards him. Be it the engineers, be it cars, and many a time during the season, the strategy as well. Despite all of this, the second driver is expected to be an able deputy and be close enough to the lead driver.
A driver like Sergio Perez, who is in the second phase of his career where he's grateful that he's driving a fast car, can be content with doing just that. A young driver with an entire career in front of him is going to find it very hard. A Perez might even be fine with turning up to every race weekend and knowing that he'll lose to his teammate. Would a Lawson or a Colapinto be fine with it?
Franco Colapinto and Liam Lawson are brilliant talents. They have strong careers in front of them should they stick around in F1. But the second seat at Red Bull is maybe not the best place for a young upcoming driver who is still trying to establish himself in F1.
Colapinto and Lawson are two young talents with a bright career ahead of them. However, placing them alongside a once-in-a-generation talent with the entire outfit working for him is just not the right approach.
The alternatives to Franco Colapinto and Liam Lawson?
This is the unfortunate reality that there are no ready-made options in the pipeline that can jump in and replace Sergio Perez. The priority for Red Bull when it comes to replacing the Mexican is that the alternative has to be experienced enough to withstand the pressures that being on the team poses.
Or it has to be a proven talent that would either challenge Max Verstappen and hence be a potential insurance if the Dutch driver packs his bags and leaves. While none of these options are on the table for 2025, there are multiple drivers that could be on the market for 2026.
A Carlos Sainz would be a great fit (considering he has an exit clause at Williams). An Oscar Piastri could be an even better choice as it helps Red Bull secure two top-tier talents. There's George Russell as well, whose Mercedes contract expires at the end of the 2025 F1 season.
While that is the case, gambling in 2025 with a young driver (either Franco Colapinto or Liam Lawson) who is yet to find a firm footing in Formula 1 is a risky proposition and could be a PR disaster if the team is forced to drop them within a year.
While there is a lot of hype around Colapinto and a general yearning to see Lawson get a shot, sticking with Sergio Perez might be the best thing for Red Bull for 2025, especially since both Colapinto and Lawson are still quite unproven in the sport.
