Can 2022 F1 British GP prove to be the comeback race for Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes?

Lewis Hamilton has had one of the worst seasons of his F1 career so far in 2022, having only scored 77 points to sit sixth in the drivers’ championship. After nearly seven years of utter dominance, Hamilton’s luck seems to have finally run out. The seven years saw him rack up six world championship titles and break almost every conceivable record in the sport. He has the most wins, most podiums, and most pole positions of any driver in F1 history.

Last year, the Briton lost a potential eighth drivers' world title to Red Bull’s Max Verstappen. Now, he’s saddled with a car that seems to be as uncompetitive as it is uncomfortable to drive. Labeling the Mercedes W13 as one of the worst cars that Hamilton has ever driven in F1 doesn't seem too unreasonable.

Adding to his woes, the seven-time world champion is being usurped at Mercedes by a much younger and relatively inexperienced George Russell. Across nine race weekends so far in 2022, Russell has triumphed over Hamilton five times in qualifying and seven times in races. This led many to calling for Hamilton’s retirement.

With Mercedes seemingly unable to fix the car's problems, it looks increasingly possible that the Briton’s record of having won a race every season that he has competed in F1 might finally come to an end.

But despite his woes, the 37-seven-old has refused to give up and has continued to work hard in the hopes of lifting his team out of their ongoing struggles. At last weekend’s Canadian GP, he managed to secure a much-deserved podium finish—despite his pessimism following Friday's practice.

After a false dawn at the Spanish GP last month, Mercedes seem to have finally conquered porpoising and were much closer to the front runners in Montreal.

Does this mean that Lewis Hamilton might still have a chance at victory this season? And might it come at his home race in Silverstone next week, where he has often been invincible? Let’s look at the possibilities.

Chaos at the front provides an opportunity for Lewis Hamilton

Many a time in the past, teams that are not necessarily front runners have managed to secure victory in chaotic races. This can happen when the front runners either botch their strategies or trip over each other.

In the last two seasons, there have been four different race winners from such races – Pierre Gasly and Sergio Perez in 2020; Daniel Ricciardo and Esteban Ocon in 2021.

In each of these instances, the winners have often been the strongest performers left running. They also happened to be in the right place at the right time to exploit an unexpected opportunity.

Given that the British GP can often lead to fireworks between the frontrunners, a midfield team can easily exploit the opportunity and take a win. Lewis Hamilton’s ruthless consistency around Silverstone as well as his impeccable record at the venue will definitely give him the upper hand in such a scenario.

If Mercedes can continue to improve and find a decent setup that is both comfortable and competitive, there is a high chance that Lewis Hamilton might take his first victory of 2022 at the British GP.

Championship contenders' unreliability helps Mercedes

While Ferrari and Red Bull have managed to utterly dominate the field this season, both have also suffered devastating reliability issues.

Ferrari’s problems in the last few rounds have cost the team and Charles Leclerc the championship lead. Meanwhile, Red Bull have suffered more DNFs than any other team this season, with Sergio Perez being the latest victim at the Canadian GP.

With Silverstone being infamous for testing the resilience of F1 cars, there is a high possibility that either Ferrari or Red Bull or even both might end up facing some reliability issues. This could potentially open an opportunity for Mercedes and Lewis Hamilton to exploit.

While the W13 hasn’t been a class-leading car, it has proven to be extremely reliable so far. The same goes for the Mercedes power unit.

“New bits” might finally fix Mercedes’ issues

Lewis Hamilton and George Russell are set to receive a boost at the British GP, where Mercedes is planning to introduce “new bits” onto the W13. The upgraded parts might finally prove to be the solution that the team has been hoping for.

The last time the team introduced a major upgrade package, which was in Barcelona, Lewis Hamilton was extremely quick. He often lapped at the same pace as the front runners. Moreover, given his ability to coax every last ounce of performance from his car, the Briton might suddenly prove competitive against Ferrari and Red Bull.

Yet another false dawn

Despite the optimism surrounding Mercedes and Lewis Hamilton after their podium finish in Canada, the result might prove to be a false dawn. Silverstone is a tricky circuit that has a good mix of high-speed, medium-speed, and low-speed corners, and has three straights.

Similar to Monaco, the iconic British circuit might end up exposing yet another weakness with the W13, hampering the progress the team has made in Montreal.

Former Mercedes driver and F1 world champion Nico Rosberg suggested during an interview with Sky Sports that Mercedes are still “miles away from the performance of Ferrari and Red Bull.”

Despite the team’s optimism heading into the British GP, they might end up struggling once again and fall back into the clutches of the midfield.

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