Red Bull will be 'really hurt' by cost-cap punishment in 2023, feels F1 technical analyst

According to F1 technical analyst Craig Scarborough, the cost-cap punishment imposed on Red Bull for the 2023 season is going to have a significant impact on the team.

Red Bull breached the cost cap for the 2021 F1 season by 1.6%, classified as a minor breach, due to which the team has been penalized with a 10% deduction in its wind tunnel time for the 2023 season and a $7 million fine.

In a recent appearance on F1 journalist Peter Windsor's Twitch channel, Craig Scarborough discussed how the penalty from the cost cap infringement (which deducts 10% of the development time) will hamper Red Bull.

Scarborough said:

"That’s going to hurt them a lot. It’s going to hurt them in one of two ways or probably a little bit of each. Early/mid-season development of next year’s car will be limited and then they’ll be doing the concept work for the 2024 car."

He added:

"They’re going to have to work out where they’re going to spend their hours between this year’s car and next year’s car and that will probably be something that will evolve depending on how good the 2023 car is, how much competition they’ve got and how much they want to think about 2024."

One of the key reasons Red Bull could struggle is the restrictive nature of the regulations with regards to where and what a team can develop. The cost-cap factor also makes things more complicated.

Speaking to Windsor, the technical analyst added that as the teams get used to the regulations in their second year, the margins will decrease drastically. He said:

"That’s a big loss for them. As we’ve got through this first year of the regulations the development curve is very steep and it’ll start to flatten out through next year as teams make their second stab at the regulations and develop that through the year."

He added that the development curve's flattening is what will hurt the team the most, saying:

"I think it will really hurt them because it’s at that point, when the development curve flattens off, every one of those teams are looking at tinier, tinier things to make improvements, not big changes like we saw with the sidepods earlier in the season."

Trouble brewing for Red Bull in 2023?

The 10% deduction will surely hamper the team next season as it limits the scope of development available to them. However, Red Bull do have a head-start over the rest of the grid as they were the first team to crack the code of the new regulations.

While the restrictions will certainly hamper Red Bull to an extent, any fears that they could derail the following year's title challenge might be off the mark with drivers like Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez in Red Bull's ranks.