"We’ve got our work cut out" - Mercedes give their take on pecking order for Brazil Grand Prix

Mercedes trackside engineer Andrew Shovlin has explained how they could be closer to the Red Bull Racing team at the Brazil Grand Prix. He also revealed how weather conditions could play a key role in swinging the momentum in their favor. The Mercedes engineer believes there could be more circuits in the calendar that could favor their team in the upcoming races.

Despite Max Verstappen’s 19-point lead in the Drivers Championship and Red Bull Racing’s dominant run in Mexico, Shovlin explained Mercedes' pitfalls in their performance in Mexico and the key factors that could favor them in Brazil.

Speaking to Motorsport Network, Shovlin explained the momentum swing, saying:

“Normally this far into the season you see the performance settle down a bit, and the swings are still big.”

Looking ahead to the next four races, he added:

“There will be circuits that will suit us. We had very strong races in Turkey and Sochi and plenty of strong races since the summer break. So it will be up and down, and we've definitely got our work cut out.”

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Andrew Shovlin believes warmer temperatures could favor Red Bull Racing at Brazil Grand Prix

Mercedes hope to perform better at the Brazil Grand Prix than they were in Mexico (Photo: Francisco Guasco - Pool/Getty Images)

The Mercedes engineer analyzed Red Bull Racing team’s performance advantage at the Brazil Grand Prix, saying:

“I think on balance, they are a little bit ahead of us, but it'll get affected by the weather, the track temperatures - those will all play a part.”

Asserting Mercedes’ advantage against that, he added:

“But the biggest thing will be the circuit characteristics, and it seems that when we're on an understeery track, we tend to go a little bit better.”

Reflecting on Mercedes’ weaknesses in the last two races, Shovlin explained:

“The last two races have been very much about rear tire overheating, and you could say from what we've seen in the last fortnight, it's very clear they have the advantage when we're in that situation.”

Shovlin explained the weather conditions at the Brazil Grand Prix weekend, saying:

“It depends a bit on the weather there. The weather inherently is very unstable there — you can have 50-degree (122 F) track one day and it can be a washout the next.”

According to him, warmer temperatures could favor Red Bull Racing, while ‘cloud cover’ could favor the Mercedes team.

Explaining the effect of the weather on the pecking order at the Brazil Grand Prix, Shovlin, said:

“I think if it is a hot circuit, then it is probably going to move it in their direction. A bit of cloud cover may well suit us, but one of the advantages they had [in Mexico] was they were able to go up a step on downforce from the rear wing they normally run to their max downforce wing.”

Shovlin explained how Red Bull Racing had a pace advantage over them in Mexico, saying:

“For us that’s the one that we run normally, it’s just their car seems to have more downforce than us on identical-sized wings. I think that played into their favor.”

According to most of the performance analysis through the Mexican GP weekend, Mercedes seemed like they were on the back foot solely in the aerodynamic area. Given the circuit layout of the Mexican circuit, it was more suited to Red Bull Racing.

Shovlin felt that the aerodynamical disadvantage would be minimal at the Brazil Grand Prix, and it could bring them closer to their rivals in terms of performance.

He explained the wing effect at Interlagos, saying:

“In Brazil that should be less of an issue but it’s very hard to predict, and … we’ll look at the weaknesses of our car and work out how we can minimize them.”

Mercedes expect to be closer to Red Bull Racing team at the Brazil Grand Prix. (Photo by Lars Baron/Getty Images)

Speaking to racer.com, Shovlin explained the tire performance and predictions for the Brazil Grand Prix, saying:

“We need to get the tires in a good window. But making predictions about whether you’re going to be fast or slow is quite meaningless, it’s more about knowing the jobs you need to focus on and doing a good job of getting the car sorted.”

The Mercedes engineer believes they could be closer at the Brazil Grand Prix weekend, saying:

“There’s reasons we would expect it to be closer. What we like to spend our time doing is worrying about things that might go wrong and might catch us out.”

Refusing to make a definitive prediction, he further added:

“So as I said it may well be, but it’s so unpredictable at the moment.”

While Mercedes might be closer in terms of performance in Brazil, the Interlagos circuit might favor Verstappen more than Lewis Hamilton. The layout of the circuit has suited the Dutchman’s style of driving, who has claimed victory and two podiums successfully at the Brazil Grand Prix.

On the last Brazil Grand Prix weekend in 2019, Verstappen not only claimed pole position but also won a chaotic rain-drenched race. The current race weekend also has a similarly unpredictable forecast, but most paddock analysts predict another Red Bull Racing win.