Prediction: Sergio Perez will be replaced before his Red Bull contract expires

Sergio Perez was given a contract extension by Red Bull recently, which will see him drive for the team until the end of the 2026 F1 season. The news came as a surprise because the driver's performances have not been up to par. He's nowhere close to Max Verstappen, his Red Bull teammate, and with the competition catching up, he's found it hard to contribute.

Despite all of this, the Mexican found himself with a brand new contract. The very first weekend after his contract extension was announced, the driver had a poor outing in Canada. He was eliminated in Q1 while his teammate fought for pole position and started the race on the front row.

Things got worse in the race when Sergio Perez made contact with Pierre Gasly on the first lap, subsequently crashing out of the race. All this time, Max Verstappen was at the front and fighting for the win.

There have been many who have questioned why Sergio Perez was given a contract extension. It's hard to truly see the reason behind it. Having said that, it does appear that the Mexican could be replaced before his current contract comes to an end.

Why Sergio Perez was given an extension

Possibly, one of the reasons Sergio Perez was given an extension is because Red Bull just found itself in a position where change didn't seem viable. The driver that the team had earmarked to replace Sergio had not performed (Daniel Ricciardo). In terms of options, while Carlos Sainz was present, the past between him and Max Verstappen was a hurdle.

To add to this, the team had just gone through a turbulent period of infighting where Max Verstappen had hinted that he could leave the team. The move to give an extension was just to calm things down a little and not ruffle any more feathers.

Why the seat is in danger

Well, the first reason for the seat to be in danger is the fact that the driver is just not performing. In Canada, as I mentioned earlier, the driver was eliminated in Q1 and then crashed out. The issue is that it was not a one-off. The Mexican had a somewhat similar weekend in Monaco as well.

Even in Imola, he was bumped out in qualifying before even reaching Q3. In 2022 and 2023, Sergio Perez's season followed a similar pattern and for many, his performances have not come as a surprise.

There is one issue however, and that stems from the fact that in 2024, unlike the dynamics in 2022 and 2023, Red Bull is facing a challenge in the championship. The Austrian team has bled its championship advantage in the last 4 races with both Ferrari and McLaren closing the gap.

Why? Because while Max Verstappen is just ruthlessly brilliant in the way he extracts the maximum from the car, his teammate is a liability and just doesn't contribute.

Red Bull has a serious threat of finishing third in the championship this season, with both Ferrari and McLaren jumping them in the standings. Will the team be okay with such a situation? Probably not. And that's where Perez needs to step up. Unfortunately for him, the pattern that he's followed in his stint with the team remains the same. This is not for lack of trying from him, but just the harsh reality that is the best that he could do.

The availability of options

What worked out brilliantly for Sergio Perez this season and why he got the contract extension was because of a lack of options. As we stated earlier, the players on the table were just not the right fit. Fast forward to 2025, if Perez continues to perform at this level, there will be options on the table.

If Daniel Ricciardo's form from Canada continues and he can string together a 6-7 race stretch where he beats Yuki Tsunoda convincingly, he will be a candidate for a switch as early as this season. If not for Daniel, there are at least two very capable drivers whose contracts end in 2025.

Both George Russell's and Oscar Piastri's contracts expire at the end of 2025. For George, if he feels that Mercedes is starting to mold around the young talent in Kimi Antonelli, then he could look for a way out. Similarly for Oscar, there's an element of him maxing out at McLaren because the team is molding itself around Lando Norris.

if Oscar thinks he's hitting his ceiling at the team, he could make a move to Red Bull. For Christian Horner, he has to think of a future beyond Max Verstappen. The Dutch driver has shown reluctance when it comes to making a definitive commitment to seeing out his contract. Having a George or an Oscar means that there's a very strong driver in one car and the team could build around him.

Conclusion

The trajectory, the momentum, and the past record indicate Sergio Perez might end up costing Red Bull the constructors championship. It entirely comes down to the consistent drop in results that he's had throughout his stint on the team.

With his form not improving, compounded by a stronger opposition and, to make things worse, the availability of viable alternatives, it's going to be very hard for Sergio Perez to keep his seat, and I'm predicting that he does not see out his current Red Bull contract.