Prediction: The Esteban Ocon-Pierre Gasly partnership is going to end in tears

Esteban Ocon and Pierre Gasly will be teaming up at Alpine for the 2023 F1 season. The French team, coming off the back of a P4 finish in the constructors standings, will be hoping to build on what was an impressive start to the new regulations.

Their new driver lineup is certainly a fresh coat of paint after the relationship between Ocon and Fernando Alonso started to disintegrate last year.

Having said that, Ocon and Gasly are not really the two drivers you would want to put together if team harmony was a priority. The two drivers were childhood friends but had a falling out as they grew up. Their relationship has been more or less frosty, even as they made their way to F1.

While both drivers have tried to alleviate fears that their relationship could go south, if we observe closely and look at the intangibles involved, the Pierre Gasley-Esteban Ocon relationship is heading towards an implosion.

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Pierre Gasly and his desperation to succeed

If we look at the situation from Pierre Gasly's point of view, then he has no margin for error this season. The shot at Alpine might just be the only one at a works team that Gasly could get. The last time he had one was in 2019 with Red Bull.

It's safe to say that Gasly crashed and burned against Max Verstappen. So much so that he was sent packing by the team during mid-season to Torro Rosso. Since then, Gasly has made his way back into contention in the eyes of the fans and the F1 paddock as well. The driver has scored podiums and even scored a win in Monza in 2020.

All of this has raised his stock to the point where Alpine was willing to give Pierre Gasly a shot with the team. There is, however, one issue: Red Bull did not think Gasly was suitable enough to drive for the main team. He was looked at as a leader in AlphaTauri as long as he stayed within the Red Bull family.

Heading to Alpine, Pierre Gasly has a massive challenge ahead of him. Esteban Ocon is in top form after outscoring Fernando Alonso last year. Gasly hasn't gone up against a challenge as formidable as this since 2019, when he had Max Verstappen as his teammate.

For Pierre Gasly, if he beats and comprehensively outscores Esteban Ocon, then the F1 paddock is his oyster. He will be looked at as a team leader in Alpine. Not only that, other teams on the grid will look at him differently as well.

He could be looked at as a possible Lewis Hamilton successor at Mercedes, or a Carlos Sainz replacement at Ferrari. An opportunity to win races and championships will open up for him.

If he loses to Ocon, then he would be put in the category of a solid midfield driver on the grid and his ceiling would be defined that way.

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Esteban Ocon and his desperation for success

Esteban Ocon is in a very vulnerable spot as well. Despite outscoring Fernando Alonso, the paddock verdict did have the two-time World Champion outperforming Ocon. Not only that, neither team principals nor drivers voted for him inside the top 10 list of drivers on the grid.

In the eyes of many, Ocon is already looked at as a solid midfield driver. Someone who will be consistent enough to produce results that the car is capable of. He's not looked at as someone who has elite-level peaks.

This perception has to do with the fact that Ocon has been placed alongside truly brilliant F1 talents in Daniel Ricciardo and Alonso. When you're put in the same car as those two drivers, whatever you do tends to pale in comparison anyway.

However, one thing that is noticeable is the improvement shown by Ocon every season since his return to the sport in 2020. If he's able to beat Pierre Gasly or significantly outperform him, then the perception towards Ocon will change.

His links to Mercedes are still strong and Toto Wolff has always had a soft spot for the French driver. Ocon could be looked at as a possible replacement once Lewis Hamilton hangs up his gloves.

Even if we leave that possibility to one side, being a part of Alpine — a team that is progressing — and taking over the lead driver's role is only going to put Ocon in pole position to challenge for wins/titles if the car reaches those levels of competitiveness.

The 2023 F1 season will be one where Ocon could change the perception that the paddock has for him and turn it into something favorable.

However, if Ocon loses to Gasly and loses handily, then Alpine might end up being the peak of what the French driver would reach in his F1 career. He'll continue to be looked at as a strong midfield driver, nothing more.

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The collision course

One of the biggest issues with the battle between Esteban Ocon and Pierre Gasly is the fact that both drivers appear to be equally matched. Throughout their junior careers, both have done an admirable job.

Gasly became the GP2 champion on his way to F1 while Ocon was the F3 (beating Max Verstappen) and GP3 champion on his way to winning the title in F1.

Both of these drivers are already race winners in their own right and both drivers have shown a tremendous level of emotional fortitude over the years. When it comes to comparisons, it's hard to pick either of the two that would stand apart.

This is where both Ocon and Gasly head towards a collision course. Since both drivers will be more or less fighting for the same piece of track every race, and with the stakes being as high as they are, tempers will flare.

Esteban Ocon has a tendency to rub his teammates the wrong way sometimes, while Pierre Gasly does not back down from a fight. Once we consider all of these variables, it becomes more than clear that both Esteban Ocon and Pierre Gasly — two drivers desperate to succeed and at a crossroads in their careers — are on a collision course in 2023.