Sebastian Vettel is bringing about his own downfall

The 2018 Formula 1 season is well on its way towards going down in history as one of the all-time great seasons. At its heart, it has been spurred on by a titanic battle between two of the greatest drivers the sport has seen in Sebastian Vettel and Lewis Hamilton, while also seeing two storied constructors go head to head in Mercedes and Ferrari. It's been a season full of drama and action, steeped in intrigue and excitement, but as the season heads into the home stretch, the big picture might finally be getting clear.

Lewis Hamilton’s win in Monza has given him a 30 point lead over Vettel in the drivers' championship. It marks a run of 3 victories in the last 4 races for the Brit, but what makes it even more commendable is the fact that they have come at a point where the Ferrari has established itself as the overall better car when compared to the Mercedes.

A lot of people have attributed Hamilton’s domination of the sport in recent years to the superiority of the Mercedes package over the rest of the field while detracting from his race craft, but Hamilton has flipped the script this year. Vettel, who had been happy to put his misfortune in past years down to the deficiencies of the Ferrari, has finally been provided with a car that is more than capable of beating the Mercedes, but a litany of mistakes in the last few weeks are threatening to derail his title challenge.

Monza is as good a starting point as any for this discussion. The Italian Grand Prix was supposed to be a runaway victory for Ferrari, and Vettel would have been licking his lips in anticipation at the prospect of making substantial headway into Hamilton’s 17 point lead. However, the German’s race unravelled at the second chicane of the first lap itself.

As Vettel looked for a move down leader Raikkonen’s inside into the second chicane, Hamilton moved out of Vettel’s slipstream to make a move around the outside of Vettel for second place. Vettel, baulked by Raikkonen, had nowhere to go, but instead of pulling out of the corner, tried to stick with Hamilton in a desperate bid to hold on to second place and ended up getting spun around which dropped him to the back of the pack.

It was a move from Hamilton that has divided fans, a lot of whom feel he should have been punished for it, but in my opinion, it was a firm, fair move that was brilliantly executed and Vettel getting spun around was a pure racing incident. Had Vettel shown a little bit more patience and conceded the place to Hamilton there, he still had the pace and 52 more laps to plot a way back. However, his exuberance cost him dearly and he is now leaving Italy 30 points down instead of being right there with Hamilton.

Vettel’s slight misjudgement in Monza is just the latest instalment in a string of mistakes this season that could end up really hurting the German in the final reckoning. Earlier this year in Baku, Vettel made an impatient, ill-advised lunge down Bottas’s inside to try and take the lead of the race and ended up dropping from second to fourth.

Bottas’s subsequent retirement from the lead meant that Hamilton ended up inheriting a win that Vettel should have pocketed had he shown a little more restraint. Vettel then had another clash with Bottas in France, when he clipped the Mercedes driver on the opening lap which earned him a penalty and dropped him down the order costing him more points.

In Austria, he was given a grid penalty for obstructing Carlos Sainz during qualifying, without which he probably would have won the race. But none of his mistakes was as severe and will hurt him as much as his error in Germany. In treacherous, wet conditions, with Hamilton closing in, Vettel inexplicably crashed out from the lead of the race and threw away a guaranteed 25 points. To make matters worse for him, Hamilton came from 14th on the grid to take one of his greatest wins in F1. If one totals all the points he threw away, even after factoring in his poor luck in Monza, Vettel should have been in control of the title fight.

Vettel’s aggression and his exuberance are what have made him a four-time world champion, and are the hallmarks of his driving style. However, there has been a distinct lack of maturity at critical moments in this title fight, not befitting a world champion and has made him his own greatest enemy.

It is a trend that was noticeable last season, when he lost his head in Baku and drove into the back of Hamilton, and then in Singapore, where he took himself and his teammate out from the lead of the race, in what ended up being a pivotal moment that handed the 2017 world championship to Hamilton.

Vettel has the slightly better car this time around and so will have nowhere to hide if he blows Ferrari’s best chance at winning a title after ten years. Operating within such tight margins has meant that this title fight between Vettel and Hamilton has become a battle between the skills of the two drivers with their respective machines playing a minimal role in the deciding of the winner, and so far it is Hamilton who has had the edge over Vettel in this regard.

There are still 175 points on offer, but time is beginning to run out for Vettel and he cannot afford even a single misstep from now to the end if he is to have any chance at dethroning Hamilton.