Why Verstappen could drop the hammer just as hard as Hamilton: USGP

With the two title protagonists Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton starting on the 2021 US GP front row, the heat of the championship battle has been turned up another notch. Meanwhile, Red Bull Racing has successfully matched the pace of the Mercedes, the latter losing momentum after dominating the initial sessions leading up to qualifying.

History has favored Hamilton at the Circuit of the Americas, with the Briton claiming five victories at the circuit. However, when it comes to this year's edition, other factors favor Verstappen and Red Bull Racing.

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Verstappen might have a significant advantage over Hamilton in USGP

While the track layout suits Hamilton’s driving style, it's the high-rake concept of the Red Bull Racing car which is working better around this circuit. The bumpy track surface is further exacerbating Mercedes’ low-rake chassis concept woes.

Top three qualifiers Max Verstappen Lewis Hamilton and Sergio Perez in the press conference after qualifying ahead of the 2021 USGP in Austin, Texas. (Photo by Antonin Vincent - Pool/Getty Images)

Out of four sessions so far, including qualifying, Friday's FP1 was the only time the Silver Arrows looked strong. In FP2, Verstappen’s one-lap pace was masked as the Dutchman focused on his long runs, but FP3 was a clear indicator of how evenly matched the two title contending teams are.

In terms of long-run pace on the medium tires, the Red Bull Racing cars looked as strong as the Mercedes. At times, they seemed more agile around the circuit while Hamilton and Bottas struggled for grip.

Mercedes' new diffuser stall and front wing design have only improved the overall balance, but the performance advantage is not that significant.

However, the Red Bull Racing car seems to be equally quick on the straights and through the corners of the second and third sectors of the track. Glancing at the laptime averages of both Mercedes and Red Bull Racing drivers, the former don’t seem to have a significant advantage over the latter.

The laptime averages for the four drivers were as follows:

Driver	Tyre	No.of laps	Average Time
Lewis Hamilton	Medium	5	1: 41.233
Sergio Perez	Medium	5	1: 41.251
Valtteri Bottas	Medium	5	1: 41.404
Max Verstappen	Medium	5	1: 41.413

Hamilton’s pace can be unrepresentative as the Briton made a pitstop during his session to adjust the flap on his front wing. That cooled the tires, making it easier to clock quicker times as the session resumed, with the difference between him and Perez being narrower than a tenth of a second. In reality, Perez’s long run pace on the medium compound could possibly be quicker than Hamilton’s.

Max Verstappen during practice ahead of the 2021 USGP in Austin, Texas. (Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images)

The gap between Bottas’ and Verstappen’s laptime averages is also less than a tenth of a second. However, Bottas had overworked his tires in the session and they suffered from heavy degradation. A rough and bumpy track surface only made matters worse, so while the Finn managed his laptimes, his tires were on the edge towards the end. In race conditions, heavy degradation could lead to dramatic outcomes.

Verstappen and Perez’s uninterrupted race simulations are more representative than Mercedes' laptime averages. Therefore, it won’t be surprising if the Red Bull Racing cars are at least a tenth of a second quicker than Mercedes on the medium compounds during the race. Hard compound tires too suit Verstappen's car, especially in warmer temperatures.

Coming to the final reason why Hamilton could be at a disadvantage is his track position. Although he has won races in the past after starting second on the grid at this circuit, this time around, Verstappen has his teammate Perez placed in the row right behind Hamilton.

With Bottas further down the grid in ninth due to a grid penalty, Hamilton will be fending off two Red Bull Racing drivers in the opening laps of the race. His teammate Bottas won't be of much assistance until later in the race, and that's enough time for Verstappen to run away with the lead or even for Perez to demote Hamilton to third. Alpha Tauri drivers in the top 10 (Pierre Gasly and Yuki Tsunoda in eighth and 10th respectively) can't be discounted either, so that's up to three possible wingmen for Verstappen.

A high success rate at this circuit might not be enough to prove Hamilton’s advantage in the race. The Brit will have to display extraordinary racecraft to bag his sixth victory at COTA and retake the title lead while for Verstappen, claiming a victory in Hamilton territory might not be as challenging as it seemed a week ago.