10 most efficient forwards in Europe

As a breed, strikers live and die by the number of goals they score. The race for the European Golden Shoe is always closely fought, with the likes of Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo frequently occupying the top spots over the last few seasons.

However, there is a case to be made for strikers that can convert their chances in the most efficient manner. The methodology we’ve used considers the last three seasons, so that we can average the vagaries of form and players declining due to age. In addition, penalties have been excluded, since the chances of scoring are grossly amplified in that situation. Only players that have scored 30+ goals in the last three seasons have been considered.

All stats from Squawka and Transfermarkt (League Only)

---

#10 Olivier Giroud – Arsenal – 19.62%

The Arsenal man’s presence in this list would surprise plenty of pundits and even Arsenal fans – who consider the Frenchman a mediocre striker. In public discourse, Giroud’s conversion rate is generally thought to be pretty poor, but with 42 goals from 209 shots over the last three seasons, Giroud is one of the most efficient strikers in Europe, with a conversion rate of 19.62% over the last three seasons.

A large part of the reason that Giroud makes the list is due to the previous season, where he spent much of the first half as a substitute. The role seemed to suit the Frenchman who thrived in the limited minutes against tiring defences and scored 12 times with 39 shots. The Frenchman had the best conversion rate in Europe of the 2016/17 season (30.77%), and will hope that his upward trend continues.

#9 Mauro Icardi – Inter Milan – 19.64%

Mauro Icardi will be glad to see Inter exert their financial power in the transfer market

The Argentine striker from La Masia has come a long way – but it still remains a bit of a mystery why Mauro Icardi has not moved on to one of the world’s biggest clubs, especially with Inter Milan falling from grace recently. The 24-year-old’s predatory instincts have always been known – and herein lies the proof.

With 54 goals from 275 shots in the last 3 seasons, Icardi is consistently accurate, converting 19.64 % of his chances. He had an excellent 2015/16 season, where his 15 goals came from only 55 shots – Icardi nearly doubled the number of shots he takes this season, but only added 6 goals to his tally.

Icardi is approaching his prime years though, and could conceivably be an intelligent buy for one of the bigger clubs in Europe.

SeasonShots On TargetShots Off TargetShots BlockedTotal ShotsGoalsConversion %2014/153956201151815.652015/1625264551527.272016/173657121052120.00Total100139362755419.64

#8 Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang – Borussia Dortmund – 19.94%

Aubameyang’s form has garnered him interest from Real Madrid

The Gabon international may be heading to China if rumours are to be believed, but it could potentially be a big mistake. Aubameyang has shown a clear improvement in the last three seasons, increasing his conversion rate from 14% to 19.47% and the 25.66% – that’s a jump of 5% every season, and if the Gabonese striker continues the trend, he could easily be the best striker in the world.

There’s already a case to be made for the Dortmund frontman – he’s scored 65 goals from 326 shots, to have a conversion rate of 19.94% over the last three seasons. Aubameyang tends to average atleast a 100 shots on goal every season – which probably speaks to how tailored Dortmund’s midfield is towards him.

SeasonShots On TargetShots Off TargetShots BlockedTotal ShotsGoalsConversion %2014/154633211001414.002015/165142201132219.472016/176339111132925.66Total160114523266519.94

#7 Diego Costa – Chelsea – 20.16%

Diego Costa could be making a return to La Liga

Antonio Conte is a shrewd man. Ignoring all the problems that Diego Costa’s antics cause on the pitch as well as in the dressing room, the Italian has a clear reason why he wants to get rid of the Spanish striker. Costa’s conversion rate is in a downward trend.

In the 2016/17 season, excluding penalties, Costa only scored 1 more goal that in his first season at the club – but took a staggering 35 shots more! The increase in his shot’s blocked amount also points to the striker taking longer to get his shot off – which is a death knell for a frontman, especially one that is 28 years old and declining physically.

With an overall conversion rate of 20.16%, you can see why Atletico Madrid want to sign him, but putting a striker on a downward slope out to pasture for 6 months seems like a recipe for disaster.

SeasonShots On TargetShots Off TargetShots BlockedTotal ShotsGoalsConversion %2014/15362118751925.332015/16282515681217.652016/174237311102018.18Total10683642535120.16

#6 Carlos Bacca – Sevilla and AC Milan – 20.97%

Carlos Bacca’s efficiency in front of goal has made top clubs sit up and notice

For years, Carlos Bacca has confounded statisticians everywhere – the Colombian has always remained an outlier when it comes to xG (expected goals) mapping, and thus his presence in the list of most efficient strikers in Europe is not all that much of a surprise.

Bacca would have been further higher up the list had penalties been taken into account – he’s taken 16 of them over the last three seasons (8 for Sevilla, 8 for AC Milan), and scored 12. What’s very telling about the kind of striker Bacca is, is that the Colombian has taken only 186 shots over three seasons – where most strikers average around 220-250.

Very few of his shots are blocked, which points to the face that Bacca probably never shoots unless there is a great chance for a goal, perhaps explaining why clubs have never made their interest permanent in the AC Milan striker. A conversion rate of 20.97% is nothing to frown upon though, and Bacca will still retain his efficiency in front of goal, especially given Milan are rejuvenating their midfield.

SeasonShots On TargetShots Off TargetShots BlockedTotal ShotsGoalsConversion %2014/1536178611422.952015/16352218751621.332016/172417950918.00Total9556351863920.97

#5 Karim Benzema – Real Madrid – 21.19%

Karim Benzema endured a disappointing season for Real Madrid

Real Madrid fans have been baying for Karim Benzema’s blood after this past season, and with good reason why – Benzema experienced his worst season at the club since arriving in 2009. A paltry return of 11 goals with a conversion rate of 15.94% are not the stats of a top striker, especially that of player at a club like Real Madrid.

Is it because Benzema has shifted out wide to accommodate Cristiano Ronaldo in the middle? There are a lot of unknowns when it comes to Benzema – is this a blip or the beginning of a downward trend? Had the Frenchman had a better 2016/17, he would surely have ranked among the top 3 most efficient strikers in the world.

2015/16 was a fantastic year for Benzema, and Zinedine Zidane and Florentino Perez will hope that he returns to similar numbers this coming season, or retaining La Liga will prove a tough ask.

SeasonShots On TargetShots Off TargetShots BlockedTotal ShotsGoalsConversion %2014/15302712691521.742015/16513215982424.492016/17342015691115.94Total11579422365021.19

#4 Alexandre Lacazette – Olympique Lyonnais – 22.31%

The Frenchman is the most efficient striker in Ligue 1

Alexandre Lacazette will soon be an Arsenal player – and Gunners fans who have been left underwhelmed by his signing ought to take a closer look at the Frenchman. He’s one of the few players to have scored 20+ league goals in the last three seasons, albeit this is Ligue 1 we are talking about.

Of all the strikers in this list, Lacazette is hurt the most by the fact that we exclude penalties from our stats – he’s taken 23 over the last 3 seasons in Ligue 1 and scored an incredible 20 of them. The Frenchman has grown ever more efficient with his conversion rate, and if he averages 100 shots on goal that most Arsenal strikers do every season, we can expect him to score around 25 league goals, something that must not have escaped Arsene Wenger’s mind.

With 56 goals from 251 shots in the last 3 seasons, Lacazette is one of the best strikers in today’s market.

SeasonShots On TargetShots Off TargetShots BlockedTotal ShotsGoalsConversion %2014/15442617872022.992015/1649395931920.432016/17352412711723.94Total12889342515622.31

#3 Antoine Griezmann – Atletico Madrid – 23.2%

Antoine Griezmann almost made a move to Manchester United

It’s no surprise that Antoine Griezmann has been the contender for the Ballon d’Or in recent seasons – the Frenchman has been integral to Atletico Madrid’s success in La Liga and the UEFA Champions League over the last three seasons.

Manchester United were sorely tempted to move for the Frenchman this summer, only for Atletico Madrid’s transfer ban putting the kibosh on the move. Jose Mourinho would no doubt have noted that Griezmann’s shot conversion rate has been dropping season-upon-season, but that can be explained away by the fact that Griezmann is marked more tightly these days, and his shots are blocked to a greater degree.

However, a conversion rate of 23.23% for a player who is not an out-an-out striker is supremely impressive, and you would not bet against Griezmann retaining his excellent statistics in the future.

SeasonShots On TargetShots Off TargetShots BlockedTotal ShotsGoalsConversion %2014/15382911782228.212015/16423216902123.332016/17412817861618.60Total12189442545923.23

#2 Javier Hernandez – Real Madrid and Bayer Leverkusen – 23.61%

Do Manchester United fans miss Javier Hernandez?

‘Little Pea’ he may be, but Javier Hernandez is the most lethal striker plying his trade in the Bundesliga. The little Mexican found it hard to break into Manchester United’s first XI in the post-Fergie era, but ever since he left for Real Madrid, Javier Hernandez has been ruthlessly efficient in front of goal.

In three seasons, Chicharito has had only 17 shots blocked – an incredible number which shows that the Mexican striker is incredibly picky when in front of goal. Hernandez only has 34 goals in 3 seasons though, and even is he is supremely efficient, he will be hoping to improve his prolific nature in front of goal.

SeasonShots On TargetShots Off TargetShots BlockedTotal ShotsGoalsConversion %2014/151810230723.332015/16302310631625.402016/1725215511121.57Total7354171443423.61

Notable Absentees

The best?

#30 Cristiano Ronaldo – Real Madrid – 14.7%

Cristiano Ronaldo is fairly deep down in this list, although that is simply due to the astronomical number of shots he takes. 585 shots over the course of the last three seasons is the highest in the world, and having scored 86 goals from them, a conversion rate of 14.7% is fairly respectable. His 'decline’ in numbers is fairly visible, but that’s offset by the importance of the goals he’s scored.

SeasonShots On TargetShots Off TargetShots BlockedTotal ShotsGoalsConversion %2014/158983402123817.922015/169292342182913.302016/175567331551912.26Total2362421075858614.70

#14 Lionel Messi – Barcelona – 18.3%

With 92 goals from 504 shots in the last three seasons, Messi retains a good balance of shooting and converting, although as he drops into a deeper role, the Argentinian’s shot numbers may drop in the seasons to come, while increasing his efficiency.

SeasonShots On TargetShots Off TargetShots BlockedTotal ShotsGoalsConversion %2014/158953391813820.992015/167242371512315.232016/177154471723118.02Total2321491235049218.25

#1 Luis Suarez – Barcelona – 25.08%

Luis Suarez is the most efficient forward in Europe

Luis Suarez has been the most lethal frontman in Europe over the last three season, and not because of his teeth. Ever since he joined Barcelona, the Uruguayan has stepped up his already incredible form at Liverpool to an atmospheric level, especially when considering the 2015/16 season – where Suarez converted 28.79% of his chances.

In his time with the Blaugrana, Suarez has shot on target 160 times – to put it in perspective, Chicharito, the #2 player on this list, has shot 144 times, both on and off target! La Liga defenders have recognized the danger he poses, and stick tighter to him, which has increased the amount of shots blocked.

A conversion rate of 25.08% over the last three seasons is the best in the world, and I would not bet against Suarez retaining his crown.

SeasonShots On TargetShots Off TargetShots BlockedTotal ShotsGoalsConversion %2014/1536327751621.332015/166755101323828.792016/175742211202823.33Total160129383278225.08