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We are only a few hours away before the first stage of the 2018 World Cup qualifiers of the UEFA zone enters its final stage with each team needing to play only two matches. So far, only one team has assured its berth in the tournament and that is last edition’s quarter-finalists, Belgium, who confirmed their qualification with a 2-1 win over Greece at Piraeus.
A total of 24 teams have been eliminated from the tournament including Czech Republic, Hungary, and Romania who were in Pot 1. With only hours to go before the qualifiers begin, let’s take a look at the chances of the remaining 29 teams and the teams that could qualify for the tournament from each group.
#1. Group A
At one stage, it looked like France could easily take the top spot in this group, but their 2-1 loss against Sweden at Solna in June has resulted in both teams being separated by just one point. France are currently at top spot and provided they win their next two matches, they are through to Russia. With France’s next two opponents being Bulgaria and Belarus, France have booked their place in Russia on paper.
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However, if France are not able to register a win in any one game and if Sweden win both their matches, then Sweden would take top spot and France would be pushed to second place provided they do not lose both their matches. In the unlikely event of France losing both their games and Sweden/Netherlands and Bulgaria win both their games, then France could also be ending the group below second place.
A lot of Group A’s fate will depend on the match between Sweden and Netherlands at Amsterdam. Netherlands, who are currently staring at a second successive failed qualification for a major tournament, are in third position, three points behind Sweden.
If the Dutch are to stand a chance of ending the group in first place then they will have to hope that they win both their matches against Sweden and Belarus by a huge margin and France or Bulgaria not being able to register a victory in both their games.
However, if the Oranje are not able to register a win in even one game, then it’s game over for them as their goal difference is quite low compared to France and Sweden. Sweden are almost assured of a play-off spot and there is no doubting that they will thrash Luxembourg at Solna. This should be enough to guarantee them of a play-off due to their superior goal difference.
However, if, in an unlikely event, Sweden lose both their games, France don't lose both their games, and Netherlands win both their games, then the Swedes will be eliminated.
Bulgaria, surprisingly, still have a teeny-tiny possibility of qualifying if they win both their matches against France and Luxembourg and Netherlands and Sweden do not win their final two games.
Winner: France
Runner-up: Sweden
#2. Group B
The top two spots of Group B have already been taken by Switzerland and Portugal with Hungary, Latvia, Andorra, and Faroe Islands already out. However, there is no certainty that what will be the final positions of Switzerland and Portugal. Portugal’s 2-0 defeat to the Swiss in their opening match has so far been the difference as both teams have gone on to win all their remaining matches.
Portugal may have three points less than Switzerland but they do have a much superior goal difference compared to the Swiss. Switzerland and Portugal play Hungary and Andorra respectively and both sides will be expected to win.
The fate of the group will most likely be decided when Switzerland and Portugal lock horns at Lisbon. The Swiss won at home but given the fact that Portugal will be playing at their home ground and Ronaldo being in top form, they have a pretty good chance of losing. In this event, Portugal will qualify for the World Cup by virtue of a superior goal difference and Switzerland will have to play the play-offs.
Hence, Switzerland will have to win both their matches or hope that Andorra somehow manage to pull off the impossible task of beating Portugal in order to win the group.
Winner: Portugal
Runner-up: Switzerland
#3. Group C
Group C is another group where the top two teams have been decided in Germany and Northern Ireland. Ever since making the last 16 of last year’s Euros, Northern Ireland have done brilliantly in an attempt to qualify for their first ever World Cup since 1986, having won 6 games, drawing once against Czech Republic, and losing against Germany.
However, if they are to qualify directly, then they will have to win both their remaining matches against Germany and Norway and hope that Germany lose their match against Azerbaijan as well. In this event, Northern Ireland will edge out Germany by one point. However, the possibility of this happening is extremely low.
Germany on the other hand, just need a point from their last two games to qualify as their goal difference of +33 is their insurance.
Winner: Germany
Runner-up: Northern Ireland
#4. Group D
After a terrible Euro 2016 qualifying campaign, Serbia have made a remarkable comeback by going unbeaten in the World Cup qualifiers which has currently put them in a very comfortable position at the top of the table.
Serbia’s next two matches are up against Austria and Georgia and a win in any one match will hand them a ticket to their second World Cup since separating from Montenegro. A loss in both their matches will be a spot of bother for the Serbs as they will end in second place, but qualification to the play-offs is not assured.
Austria are in a very delicate position at fourth place with only 9 points and if they do anything but win in their final two matches, then they will have to wait another four years to qualify for their first World Cup since 1998.
Wales and Republic of Ireland are in close competition with 14 and 13 points respectively. Wales, who stunned all by reaching the semi-finals of Euro 2016, have been unbeaten in the qualifiers with three wins and five draws.
However, if they are to qualify directly then they will have to win both their matches and hope that Serbia draw one match and lose one. The mist around Group D will be cleared when Wales take on Republic of Ireland at Cardiff as both sides will be expected to beat Georgia and Moldova respectively.
The Irish have a very low chance of qualifying directly as their goal difference is quite modest and hence, they will have to win both their matches by a considerable margin and hope that Serbia get only one point from their final two matches.
Winner: Serbia
Runner-up: Wales
#5. Group E
Group E will witness a three-way battle between Poland, Montenegro, and Denmark to take the top two spots. Poland’s 4-0 thrashing against Denmark at Copenhagen has made the group more open as they are at first position with only a three-point gap between them and Denmark and Montenegro.
If the Poles beat Armenia today and the match between Denmark and Montenegro is tied, then they will qualify for their 8th World Cup and their first since 2006, regardless of how their final game against Montenegro goes.
However, if Poland draw against Armenia and lose to Montenegro and either of Montenegro and Denmark win both their matches, then the Whites and Reds will be pushed to second place.
Things could go even worse for the Poles if they lose both their matches as it may result in Poland being eliminated due to inferior goal-difference compared to Denmark and Montenegro.
If Poland wins both their games, then the match between Denmark and Montenegro will determine the second place in the group. For either of Denmark and Montenegro to qualify directly, they need to win both their matches and hope Poland lose at least one match.
Winner: Poland
Runner-up: Montenegro
#6. Group F
England are the team to beat in Group F as with 20 points, they are well on course to make the finals in Russia. If England win both their matches against Slovenia and Lithuania or win any one, they are through.
Even if England get a point against Slovenia today and second-placed Slovakia do not beat Scotland, then they are into the finals. However, in an unlikely event of England losing both their matches, they might be pushed to a play-off spot.
While England are almost assured of the top position, the second position will be determined in a three-way battle between Slovakia, Slovenia and Scotland. If Slovakia win both their matches against Scotland and Malta, then they are assured of a play-off and might even get the top spot provided England get no or one point from their remaining games.
Either of Scotland and Slovenia can take second position by winning both their matches.
Winner: England
Runner-up: Slovakia
#7. Group G
Spain’s 3-0 win against Italy at the Bernabeu has given them the upper hand over the Azzurri and the 2010 champions are assured of at least a play-off spot. A minimum of four points from their final two matches against Albania and Israel will be enough for La Roja to qualify for their 15th World Cup.
Even if Spain win one and lose the other and Italy win both their matches, the Spaniards’ superior goal difference will be enough to take them to Russia. Hence, the only hope Italy have of qualifying is that they win both their matches against Macedonia and Albania while Spain lose both theirs.
Even though Albania have a chance of finishing second, it is impossible for them to beat both Spain and Italy. Hence, their campaign can be considered as over.
Winner: Spain
Runner-up: Italy
#8. Group H
Group H’s top spot has already been taken by Belgium, so it leaves Bosnia and Herzegovina (14 points), Greece (13 points), and Cyprus (10 points) to fight out for second position. Out of the three, Cyprus has the least chance of finishing second as their final two games are against Greece and Belgium. Besides, their goal difference of -4 is highly inferior compared to Greece’s +6 and Bosnia’s +11.
Bosnia also do not have a very favorable as they might be second now but their next match is against Belgium. The Dragons are bound to make easy work of Estonia, but defeating Belgium - even at home - will not be an easy task.
However, if they manage to win both matches, then they take second position or else they’ll have to hope that Greece lose both their matches, which is almost impossible as one of them is against Gibraltar.
Provided Greece beat Cyprus and Gibraltar and Bosnia do not win both their matches, then they will finish in second place.
Winner: Belgium (already confirmed)
Runner-up: Greece
#9. Group I
This is the closest group of the qualifying as Croatia and Iceland occupy the top two spots with 16 points each while Turkey and Ukraine occupy the next two spots with 14 points each.
For both Croatia and Iceland, a minimum of four points from their remaining two matches will be enough. While Croatia will have an easy win against Finland, Ukraine won’t be an easy team to beat, especially at home where they have won all matches - except for a draw against Iceland.
As far as Iceland are concerned, a win against Kosovo is almost assured, but beating Turkey in their own backyard will be a Herculean task for them.
However, if Ukraine and Turkey win both their matches against Kosovo and Croatia and Iceland and Finland respectively, then both will take the top two spots with the goal difference determining who will take top position.
However, if all four teams get four points from their matches, then Croatia will qualify and Iceland will have to settle for a play-off spot.
Winner: Croatia
Runner-up: Turkey
