26 years of success – Sir Alex Ferguson

It is a rare event that a champion bows out at the top.

To use a boxing analogy, for every Lennox Lewis, there are many, many Ricky Hattons. Proud, worthy men who go on too long and are remembered as a shell of their true triumphant selves. Sir Alex Ferguson is now in a perfect position to do what so few before him have been able to do – to leave at the top of his profession and ride off into the proverbial sunset.

Keen watchers of Ferguson (of which I am one) will point to the clues that suggest this has been his plan from last summer. The signing of Robin van Persie from Arsenal was without doubt the biggest clue as to Ferguson’s change in philosophy. Previously, the Old Trafford policy has been focussed on buying younger players who will develop into the finished article. Ferguson and David Gill both made it clear those players over 27 were not considered necessary due to their lack of ‘sell on value’. Yet, being pipped by City at the end of last season forced an obvious re-think, and that has proved successful. The prospect of seeing a team that Ferguson has always had a fairly mocking disregard for, triumphing and building a successful legacy at his expense, would surely be too much for SAF to stomach.

Enter RVP. A proven goalscorer at the top level.

Think for one second how the season would have panned out if he had gone to City. Fergie and United, for once, took the short-term approach and it has undoubtedly worked.

The defeat to Real Madrid also offered an insight into Sir Alex’s mentality. Under normal circumstances, after a controversial defeat, Fergie would come out swinging and leading from the front with outraged soundbites. The fact that all media duties were left to Mickey Phelan as Fergie was “too distraught” points to a man who knew that this was his last shot at the trophy he wants the most. I expected a rousing “we won’t forget this and we’ll be back next year to right this wrong” and yet there was nothing. For once on SAF’s interaction with the media, his silence speaks volumes.

Retiring, or moving ‘upstairs’ would cap Ferguson’s legacy perfectly. Not only would he have knocked Liverpool off their perch, but he will have seen off the money of Blackburn, Chelsea and City and the challenge of Arsene Wenger’s Arsenal. The great survivor will have outlasted them all and can leave a near record breaking season behind him as his final statement. 20 league titles will put United out of Liverpool’s grasp for the foreseeable future and leave Sir Alex celebrated in history as the man who came, saw and conquered. A fairytale ending that is never likely to be repeated in the modern era. The ultimate fairytale would surely have been beating Barcelona at Wembley, but that was just a little too far-fetched!

And what of this United team? 25 wins in the league out of 31 so far this season at the time of writing. 12 points clear of City and on target to break all sorts of records if they continue in a similar vein. On paper, everything looks rosy, but the reality is different. This is a team in need of overhaul in key areas.

The cental midfield area has been an area of worry ever since the sad story of Owen Hargreaves. The media and public at large have finally started to recognise the virtues of Michael Carrick, but he remains a polarising figure for many United observers. Carrick is feted by many for his astute reading of the game and calmness under pressure but derided by others brought up on the dynamism of Robson, Whiteside, Keane and Ince. Alongside Carrick, Tom Cleverley has been used a lot this season. A neat and tidy player, but one who is still learning his trade and very much one in the Ferguson mould who is still to develop into the finished article. The unfortunate Darren Fletcher is surely a doubt to recover to his previous levels of form, whilst Anderson continues to take one step forward and three back, beset by poor conditioning and injuries.

In order to compete at the very top – we’re talking Barcelona, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich standards here – United need two top central midfielders. The likes of Kevin Strootman, Luka Modric, Fellaini, Isco and Thiago amongst others have been mentioned and big outlays will be needed to bring in the quality required. Yet, it is not only in these areas that a future United manager would need to strengthen.

On paper, Nani, Valencia and Ashley Young provide decent cover on the wings, but all have been poor this season. Patience finally seems to be running out with the inconsistent Nani. Capable of moments of brilliance, but equally capable of maddening basic errors, Nani is the type of confidence player who needs to be playing week in, week out in the same position to achieve his potential. Unfortunately for him, this just does not happen in the modern game. Approaching his 27th birthday this year, Nani is no longer a promising youngster and the time seems to be right for all parties for him to move elsewhere.

The decline of Antonio Valencia has been both swift and sad. In previous seasons, he has been an effective, albeit one footed winger, who has linked up especially well with Wayne Rooney. Yet, this season, he appears to have lost all confidence and makes very little effort to try and beat his man. In essence, he has turned into a right wing version of Ray Wilkins. If Fergie stays, I’m sure he would remain loyal to him and give him another season, but on this season’s showing, a new manager would not be so forgiving.

Ashley Young was a surprising signing in the first place and in my opinion, is not the required standard of a United player. There can be no surprises therefore that he has flattered to deceive and finds his place at the club at risk. The signing of the exciting but unproven Wilfried Zaha is a step in the right direction, but rumoured prior interest in the likes of Eden Hazard and Lucas Moura shows that Ferguson himself knew that change was needed.

Patrice Evra has surprised many with his welcome return to form, although not reaching the heights that he reached in 2006-2008. Whereas previously a left back was seen as an urgent issue, Evra may have managed to postpone this for another year or two.

This leaves Wayne Rooney. Rumours abound of a fallout with Sir Alex, the wounds of 2010 having never fully healed over. The arrival of van Persie as the undoubted number one striker has seen Rooney’s status slip. With only two years on his contract left, is this the time to cash in? While Rooney has not truly delivered on his teenage promise, he continues to contribute to the team, as 16 goals so far this season indicate. However, he no longer has the dribbling skill that marked him out as such a precocious youngster and you have to question at what age his influence will start to wane. I certainly don’t see him in the Giggs and Scholes category of playing into his late 30s, and his mediocre first touch doesn’t support the idea of him converting into a midfield role. Were he to be sold, would he fund the changes needed in midfield and on the wings?

Quite probably. The Glazers are not going to fund three or four high profile signings by themselves. The sales of Rooney, Nani and Anderson would create enough money to significantly invest in the areas mentioned. Whether it is right that a club of United’s stature should have to sell players to be able to fund investment is a discussion for another day. But the chances of Rooney being sold are more likely in my opinion than most currently expect.

And that leads on to the question of the manager. If my theory is right and Fergie does call it a day (and trust me, I’ll be saying I told you so if it does happen), who are the likely candidates to replace him? We start with the obvious one:-

Jose Mourinho

Mourinho has brought success at all his previous clubs and surely has the ego to step into SAF’s shoes. Questions remain about his lack of longevity at any club and his lack of youth development. Would he really be able to convince the OT hierarchy that he would be around for the long haul? Given his track record and achievements, no other man appears better equipped than him to take over and implement the required changes. His style of football has been questioned, but a look at how Real Madrid destroyed Barcelona recently dispels that myth. In short, the man most likely to continue Sir Alex’s reign of success and the most likely candidate for the job.

David Moyes

A candidate who is always mentioned, very often for the reason that he appears to be endorsed by Ferguson. While doing admirably at Everton on limited resources, Moyes has had very little experience of European football at Goodison and no silverware – the two things you would expect as a pre-requisite for a United manager. I would fully expect Moyes’ name to be mentioned by the press, but don’t expect him to be considered as a serious candidate.

Mickey Phelan

There is an argument to say that United would follow the Liverpool tradition of promoting from within as happened with the likes of Paisley, Fagan and Dalglish. Phelan was signed from Norwich in 1989 and remembered mainly by me for his quote in the Manchester United annual 1990 to “Start the day the Phelan way – with a bacon butty” – sports science has changed the game and not for the better! With regards to Phelan taking over, memories linger of Wilf McGuiness taking over from Sir Matt Busby and the failure that followed. The feeling remains that an experienced manager is needed. This is not the time for a man finding his way into management. With that in mind, whilst a loyal soldier of Ferguson, I have no expectation of Phelan taking over.

Other candidates have been mentioned with the likes of Laurent Blanc, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer and Jurgen Klopp. However, I expect it to be a one horse race and for the ‘Special One’ roadshow to pitch up in Manchester in June to replace Sir Alex and for some serious squad upheaval. Let the games begin.