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The Premier League is now just days away from resuming following a suspension of over three months. Despite the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the decision has now been taken to complete the 2019-20 campaign, with Aston Villa vs. Sheffield United set to be the competition’s first game since March 9th.
Upon its resumption, the race for the Premier League’s top-four seems tighter than ever. The top two spots will almost certainly belong to champions-elect Liverpool and runners-up Manchester City. But underneath them, just eight points separate fourth-place Chelsea and ninth-place Arsenal.
So who will secure the all-important Champions League qualifying slots for the 2020-21 season? The following factors will all likely play their part in the outcome.
#1 The fitness of the squads during the lockdown
The Premier League was curtailed due to the COVID-19 pandemic back in mid-March. And with the UK bringing in draconian lockdown laws shortly after, the regular training sessions for the league’s players quickly became impossible.
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Teams have now been able to train in some form since mid-May, beginning with small groups and progressing into full sessions. But with so much inactivity, particularly in terms of actual game time, how much impact will this have on the squads chasing a top-four finish?
The honest truth is that it could have a massive one. The Premier League’s stars will undoubtedly have attempted to keep themselves fit during the months of lockdown. But can that compare to true match-fitness or even the kind of training they’d receive in a pre-season camp? Not likely. And a month may not be enough to get some of those players looking fully sharp again.
That could mean that other factors such as age and injury history come into play. Interestingly though, many of the sides chasing top-four in the Premier League rely highly on young talent.
Chelsea’s season has been defined by Frank Lampard’s willingness to play academy products such as Tammy Abraham and Mason Mountlthough the Blues also rely on veterans such as Cezar Azpilicueta and Willian for balance. Arsenal are in a similar position, while much has been made of Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s penchant for youth at Manchester United, too.
The fall guys, in this case, could turn out to be Tottenham Hotspur and Sheffield United. Jose Mourinho’s Spurs rely more heavily than their rivals on ageing veterans such as Toby Alderweireld, Hugo Lloris and Moussa Sissoko – despite having a lower average age than United’s squad.
And Chris Wilder’s Blades squad is made up primarily of older veterans who don’t have prior top-flight experience. That could mean they simply won’t be ready for the rigour of the Premier League when the action resumes.
The truth is that when games begin in the Premier League next week, the concept of the survival of the fittest will likely be truer than ever.
#2 The impact of players returning from injuries
Injuries are undoubtedly part and parcel of the game, and all clubs have to deal with them. However, sometimes teams may feel far harder done by than their rivals in this sense.
Take Tottenham, for instance, who currently sit in eighth place in the Premier League table. Would there be an argument to make that they’d be higher had Harry Kane not been sidelined since January? Worse for Spurs, Kane’s fellow attackers Son Heung-min and Steven Bergwijn were also sidelined when the campaign was suspended in March. None of the trio were expected to return until 2020-21.
Other sides chasing top-four in the Premier League had injury problems of their own. Manchester United had been without Paul Pogba since December, although the Frenchman was due to return in March. And Marcus Rashford was likely to miss the remainder of the season with a back injury.
Chelsea meanwhile had been without Tammy Abraham, N’Golo Kante, Christian Pulisic, and Ruben Loftus-Cheek for an extended period of time.
On the other side of the coin, Leicester City, Wolves, Sheffield United, and Arsenal had been able to avoid injury crises throughout the Premier League season for the most part until its March suspension.
When the action resumes this month in the Premier League though, suddenly those injuries will no longer be an issue. Unless any players pick up knocks in training or the early games, all of the squads should be fully fit. Spurs will be able to call upon Kane, United upon Rashford, and so on.
That, of course, adds another dimension to the race for the top-four in the Premier League. We’ve seen in the past that a returning player can be enough to galvanise a squad and send them on a strong run. Will the return of Kane, for instance, be enough to catapult Spurs into a top-four finish? It’s definitely a possibility.
#3 The general toughness of remaining fixtures
With all of the Premier League’s sides having either nine or 10 games remaining, there won’t be a big margin for error when it comes to the race for the top-four.
That means that a big factor when it comes to the race will likely be the overall toughness of each side’s remaining fixtures in the Premier League. This could also be compounded by the sheer volume of games, with multiple matches often being played in the same week.
So which side has the easiest run-in? In all honesty, it’s hard to say.
That’s mainly because all of the seven sides chasing those final pair of top-four spots in the Premier League have many games against one another. Sheffield United, for instance, have remaining fixtures against five of their fellow top-four contenders. Good results in those games would almost certainly cement a top-four spot. But bad results could shove them back down into mid-table.
It’s also worth noting that the Blades only have one remaining game against one of the Premier League’s strugglers – Aston Villa. Tottenham also only have two matches remaining against relegation candidates, while Chelsea, Arsenal, and Manchester United have four.
But who has the advantage there? Those strugglers will be fighting tooth and nail for survival in the Premier League. That means that games against mid-table sides with little to play for – the likes of Newcastle and Crystal Palace – could be more favourable.
If that turns out to be true, the advantage would actually lie with Sheffield United and Spurs, while Arsenal – who only have one game against one of those sides – would be worse off.
On paper at least, the best run in terms of the remaining fixtures seems to lie with Wolves. They play three of the Premier League's strugglers in their first three games back.
But the truth is that the Premier League has no easy games. And the race for the top-four in the Premier League will likely be decided by who manages to defeat their fellow contenders.
#4 Will the sides have been able to make adjustments during the break?
The 2019-20 Premier League season will always be remembered as a unique one due to the three-month suspension of games. One factor worth considering, then, is that the adjustments that teams often make between seasons may have already taken place.
And if they have, could they then have a knock-on effect on who makes a real run for a top-four spot in the remaining games?
Take Sheffield United, for instance. Tipped for relegation prior to the beginning of the campaign, they’ve instead stunned everyone to thrive and currently sit in seventh place. However, we’ve seen promoted teams take the Premier League by surprise before – Ipswich in 2000-01 come to mind – and then go onto struggle in their second season.
In the past, that was because the style of the players – as well as the tactics of the manager – became found out somewhat, with ways to defeat them worked out over time. Could the same happen in these remaining games to Chris Wilder and his side?
On the other side of the coin, Jose Mourinho at Tottenham and Mikel Arteta at Arsenal have not yet had a full pre-season to work with their players and fully instil their methods. Could the three-month layoff turn out to be the equivalent of a pre-season for them?
And if the answer is yes, will we see both sides look far more coherent and thus more capable of making a run for a top-four spot in the Premier League?
#5 How will teams – and referees – react to behind-closed-doors games?
The biggest difference to the Premier League when games resume will undoubtedly be the fact that there’ll be no fans in attendance. Due to the ongoing threat of COVID-19, all of the remaining matches in the 2019-20 Premier League season will be played behind closed doors.
And surprisingly, this could actually be a bigger factor in the race for the top-four than many people might think.
Firstly, the players themselves will need to adjust to the sudden lack of atmosphere in their stadiums, which would normally be packed. We’ve seen on numerous occasions how a rabid crowd can stir a home side onto victory.
For the remainder of 2019-20 Premier League campaign, though, that won’t be possible. So will that erase the home advantage that sides playing in their own stadium would normally enjoy? It’s definitely a possibility.
And what about referees? While there’s never been any concrete proof, it’s often been suggested that certain decisions – say a potential penalty, or red card – can be swayed by a baying crowd.
If a player goes down in the box late in a game at Old Trafford, and there are no fans screaming to award a spot-kick, would the referee’s mindset be affected? Sure, the officials will still have VAR to back them up. But the big decisions remain on the head of a single referee.
In all honesty, the effect of games being played behind closed doors will be the big X-factor in terms of the race for the top-four in the Premier League. But there’s definitely a possibility that the teams who feed off the atmosphere provided by their fans and the intimidation factor of their stadiums may suffer.
