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On paper, the upcoming Copa del Rey final has one clear winner in FC Barcelona, but Athletic Bilbao will be doing their utmost to arrest them in their tracks, you can be sure.
With La Liga now finalised, Barca ought to be in high spirits, having finally captured their 23rd title ahead of Cristiano Ronaldo's high-flying Real Madrid. Playing some stylish football all season long, the Barcelonistas have been treated to a visual spectacle from week to week as their players have continued to serve up some wondrous skill.
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As for Bilbao, they remain the plucky underdogs for this encounter, with a satisfying campaign now behind them. Because although they will aim to play without fear, it’s hard to see exactly how they will get anything out of this one at first glance.
So, let’s examine the five key factors which ought to determine the outcome of this weekend’s huge cup final.
Messi will set Camp Nou alight once more
How many times has Messi made us all scratch our heads in disbelief this season? Quite a few, that’s for sure.
In truth, he’s likely to make us do it a few more times when the match gets underway – after all, with the question marks, doubts and scepticism from the earlier part of the season all well and truly gone, he has managed to maintain his peak through some of the most important matches.
Averaging one goal or one assist for each cup game he has played in this season, the diminutive dangerman has been relentless in his desire to have an impact on matches. Whether it was his 85th-minute winner against Atletico Madrid back in January or his couple of assists in both legs against Villarreal, he has rarely gone missing in the big games.
In a campaign where much has been made (rightly or wrongly) about his willingness to work as part of a team more so than his main contender for the Pichichi trophy, there can be little doubting the facts. Far more keen to help his team by whatever means necessary, the Argentine international has laid on treats for the Camp Nou faithful at every twist and turn of the season.
In fact, since the turn of 2015 alone he has netted an astonishing 19 goals at their home stadium compared to 14 away, proof, if ever it was needed, that while the most talented player of the last 10 years always plays phenomenally, he plays even better at home.
Head-to-head record doesn’t hold much hope for Los Leones
Having met twice already this season, the form guide doesn’t hold out much hope for a result in favour of Bilbao.
Intriguingly, however, there is a sliver of optimism for fans of Ernesto Valverde’s outfit this weekend and that is their superior record of playing finals in the city of Barcelona. As reported by Barca’s official site, Los Leones have clinched as many as half a dozen cups there, while their opponents have only taken four – so history is ever so slightly on their side.
Sure, it is just a technicality, but it’s certainly worth mentioning as whatever happens in terms of the result, we will have history as neither side have ever played each other at this venue in the final before.
Unfortunately for the underdogs, though, the main statistic of note is the fact they have not beaten Luis Enrique’s men this season. The closest they came to competing arrived in early February when they put two past Claudio Bravo – that said, they conceded five that same afternoon.
The only other occasion when they did battle this season was when the La Liga champions overcame them with relative ease on a score-line of 2-0. In the cold light of day, it’s difficult to see exactly how Valverde’s charges can get a result unless they instigate a drastic change of tactics and mentality.
Moreover, it has been almost 14 years since Bilbao beat Barca at the Camp Nou – that last win arriving back in 2001 when goals from Urzaiz and Ezquerro were enough to outdo a second-half Rivaldo strike.
Camp Nou offers Blaugrana extra advantage
Some will say it’s an unfair edge to possess going into such a big match-up, but it’s hard to blame Barcelona for it.
As relayed by ESPN’s Francesc Tomas, both finalists would have preferred to play in the Santiago Bernabeu or another neutral venue but Los Blancos refused to be a party to any resolution. That said, fans of the beautiful game will be glad to see such a high-stakes game played in such unique surroundings.
Delving deeper into the statistics, the gulf in class becomes even more apparent because in four Copa del Rey home matches so far this season, Barca have only conceded two goals, scoring a whopping 17 along the way, so their fortress has retained its impregnable security whilst also not compromising on their unique offensive flair.
Of course, Bilbao have not won the tournament since 1984 so they are up against it in that regard, and when you consider that the majority of the cup goals scored by Enrique’s men have come with the raucous support of the Camp Nou faithful cheering them on, the Basque outfit face an even more uphill battle than they would have liked.
Bilbao will need self-belief to defend – and attack
As obvious as it might sound, Bilbao need to stop Barcelona from scoring if they are to have any chance of nabbing a shock result.
Impeding the likes of Messi, Suarez and Neymar is imperative to their potential success – but they will also have to ensure they work hard at the back to not just stop them, but to frustrate them, too.
Everyone knows Barcelona are going to create opportunities; they always do. They possess players who can score from anywhere on the park and are not afraid to take on defenders with some frighteningly inventive, fast-paced play that can take on a life of its own at times.
However, there is some hope for the longshots to pull a result out of the bag.
Looking at their last three losses (the Bayern Munich result not included) the Blaugrana have failed to score against a trio of industrious defences. Looking at the way Barca slumped to defeat against Malaga, Real Sociedad and Celta de Vigo, twice they conceded early goals due to misfortune while the latter defeat came about as result of a goal netted by Joaquin Larrivey.
Ideally, the team who finished seventh domestically in the league table will need to learn from those results by pressurizing the likes of Dani Alves, Gerard Pique and Javier Mascherano into making mistakes early on and take whatever chances come their way in an extremely clinical fashion.
If Aritz Aduriz can sneak a valuable goal to cap off an impressive season that saw him finish as the top home-grown scorer in the league with 18 goals, as outlined by ESPN’s Dermot Corrigan, they might (and that’s a big ‘might’) just have a slim chance of causing a shock.
Suarez return might reunite ‘MSN’
Forming the most formidable attacking trio in European football, Lionel Messi, Luis Suarez and Neymar Jr. have torn apart almost every defence they have played against this season. Striking fear into the hearts of their opponents, it has been a delight for neutrals to watch their famous attacking trident work their magic from week to week.
Fluidity has been the key to their seemingly telepathic prowess as they have continually synchronized together with devastating effects up front. In fact, the partnership dubbed ‘MSN’ by admirers has already surpassed the 100-goal mark.
Between them they now have a staggering 117 goals to show for their efforts across all competitions this season with Messi grabbing three more ever since they eased past Bayern Munich on an aggregate score of 5-3 in the Champions League semi-finals.
Suarez trained separately from the rest of the squad in the team’s last training session. Despite doubts over his full return to fitness, it’s possible the free-scoring Uruguayan will make an appearance to reunite the deadly triumvirate – something that certainly doesn’t bode well for the Bilbao back-line.
With two goals and two assists from five cup appearances, the ex-Liverpool star might not top the scoring charts in this competition, but he has been pivotal to their success and will certainly strengthen their chances if he’s on the pitch, teaming up with the rest of his South American companions in typically breath-taking harmony.
