5 factors that will influence Argentina's chances of qualifying for the 2018 World Cup

Mexico v Argentina
Captain Lionel Messi has created 11 out of last 13 Argentine Chances

Under-fire Argentina travel to Ecuador in their FIFA World Cup Qualification Round and as it stands, the 2014 Runner-ups won't make it to the tournament unless they pick up a win.

A sight which none could've imagined, Lionel Messi is in serious danger of missing out of next year's event.

"It would be a great injustice if Messi retired without winning a World Cup." - Gianni Infantino

The monumental match to be played at the challenging Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa is the last opportunity for the Argentines to enter the World Cup through direct qualification. Danger lurks upon La Albiceleste, who could even lose the playoff place if they lose.

Let's ponder over five major talking points about the match as Argentina's hope hangs by a thread:


#1 Conditions at Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa

Estadio Olimpico Atahualpa
Estadio Olimpico Atahualpa is the home of the Ecuador national team

The iconic stadium will be the host for the clash in the final round of matches in the CONMEBOL qualifying stages of the 2018 FIFA World Cup. A tricky scenario, the multi-purpose stadium in Quito rests upon the top of the Andes at an altitude of nearly 3 kilometres above the sea level.

Ecuador were surprisingly unbeaten in the 2006 and 2014 qualifiers at their scenic home, while opponents usually struggle and succumb under the severe playing conditions at Quito.

Brazil's players were reportedly administered with oxygen supply after their game against Ecuador at the Atahualpa. It would be a test of nerves for the Argentines as they will have to combat all odds to make it to the World Cup, under challenging conditions, against a team playing for pride.

#2 Turning their dire run

Argentina v Singapore
Forward Paulo Dybala was unused in Argentina's frustrating draw against Peru

Argentina's last competitive victory came against Chile back at the start of the year, and since then, the team have drop points in matches they were certain to win. The Messi-led team has arguably the best forward lineup in the world but has managed to net only 16 goals in the CONMEBOL qualifiers for Russia '18, the second lowest in South America.

Drawing the maximum number of matches in the qualifiers and tasting defeat in four clashes, the Argentines are ranked sixth in the standings which currently pushes them out of the World Cup.

After horrific performances under their former manager, the side have even failed to reproduce their performances from the 2014 edition under new manager Jorge Sampaoli. Under serious threat now, the Albiceleste would have to move past their past failures and look forward to the Ecuador tie as a do-or-die situation.

#3 Peru vs Colombia

Brazil v Colombia: Quarter Final - 2014 FIFA World Cup Brazil
Colombia made it to the last 8 of the previous World Cup

After holding Argentina to a goalless draw, Peru will host Colombia at the Estadio Nacional on the last matchday, in a challenging 'winner takes it all' situation.

With Peru tied with Argentina on the table and Colombia one point above the Albiceleste, the clash between the two World Cup aspirants would be a telling tale for Argentina's future in the competition.

Peru tasting defeat at the hands of the Colombians would be the ideal result the men in white and blue would be hoping for, in case there own match is tied. But, ironically, a Peruvian victory by a small margin would be more helpful for the Argentines if they win against Ecuador by a bigger margin.

Starting the game at the same time, Argentina players would need to be focused on their own duties against Ecuador, which can certainly take them to at least the playoffs against New Zealand from Oceania, which they are expected to win.

#4 Chile vs Brazil

Argentina v Chile: Championship - Copa America Centenario
Chile defeated Argentina in the Copa America 2015 and 2016 finals

Brazil are the only team from the CONMEBOL leg of qualifiers to have secured a place in the World Cup and wouldn't be hesitant to deny Chile a place in the global event.

Chile have a goal difference of +2 while the Argentines trail close behind with a goal difference of +1. Argentina would be eagerly hoping for Brazil to defeat Chile, which could possibly improve Argentina's chances to qualify directly for the World Cup.

Having tasted bitter defeat at the hands of the Chile national team in two consecutive Copa America finals, Argentina will get indirect revenge if Chile lose to Brazil.

Chile are third in the table with 26 points, one point more than the Argentines and play away against Brazil, which is arguably the strongest team in South America at the moment.

With Chile having problems of their own, the result of the game could be eventful in the points standings, where six teams are still in contention for direct qualification spots and the playoff spots for the 2018 FIFA World Cup.

#5 Permutations and combina

Brazil Global Tour - Brazil v Argentina
A lot of permutations and combinations to keep in mind? Na, just win!

Permutations and Combinations would play a huge role in determining the final standings of the CONMEBOL World Cup Qualifiers.

If Argentina lose to Ecuador; they are almost certainly out of the World Cup unless Peru lose to Colombia by a greater margin than that in the Argentina-Ecuador game and Venezuela defeats Paraguay, which will pick them up to the 5th Place, qualifying for the play-off against the Kiwis.The odds lining up in favour of the Argentines in case of a defeat in Quito are bleak, but the South American qualifiers have been unpredictable.

If Argentina draw in Ecuador; they will make the play-off if Peru loses at home to Colombia. Chile losing by more than one goal in Brazil would also throttle the Argentines to the playoffs.

If Argentina win; they are certain to at least make it to the qualifiers irrespective of the results of the other matches. Although if odds are in the favours of the men in White and Blue, they could even make it directly to Russia. If Brazil is successful in defeating Chile at home or Peru and Colombia draw their match, Argentines would make it in the top four. Peru beating Colombia be a smaller difference than Argentina beating Ecuador would also take them directly to the main event.

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Edited by Amit Mishra
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