5 Minnows who could qualify for the World Cup knockout stages

The World Cup always provides surprise teams who go much further than anyone expects them to. In 2014, it was Costa Rica, who emerged from a group featuring three former World Cup winners and made it all the way through to the quarter-finals before falling on penalties.

The manner in which the draw was structured for the 2018 World Cup in Russia, with pots assigned in direct correlation with the FIFA rankings rather than being organised geographically as they had been previously, will make it harder for any of the smaller nations to cause a stir but there are still some who will be hoping to do just that.

Here are five minnows (for the purposes of this piece, teams ranked 30th or lower in the FIFA rankings) who could qualify for the World Cup knockout stages.

#5 Egypt

Egypt will be one of the underdogs to watch out for

Group A has been gauged as the World Cup’s weakest group by various measures and it could, therefore, provide a good opportunity for Egypt to make it through to the knockout rounds in their first appearance at the tournament since 1990.

Russia would have been in the fourth pot of seeds were it not for their status as hosts, Uruguay are ranked as the second-worst of the second seeds, while Saudi Arabia are, by the FIFA rankings, the worst team at the tournament.

With a solid core from the dominant domestic force Al-Ahly, a variety of interesting younger players scattered around Europe and Asia, and the explosive Liverpool forward Mohamed Salah, Egypt look to have enough about them to progress to the last 16.

#4 Iran

Iran have a tough group to navigate through

Iran undoubtedly received one of the hardest group-stage draws. They came out of the hat as the third seeds in Group B, alongside Spain, Euro-2016 winners Portugal and Morocco.

There is, however, reason to believe that they are capable of going through. While they are not the most attractive or proactive side, former Real Madrid and Portugal coach Carlos Quieroz has them very well-organised defensively.

For example, they kept clean sheets in nine of their 10 matches during the final round of qualifying in Asia, while Argentina needed an injury-time winner from Lionel Messi to defeat them in the group stage in 2014.

So if Iran are able to defeat Morocco in their opening match, it is not beyond the realms of possibility that they could hold Spain and Portugal to low-scoring draws in their subsequent two matches. If there is a victor in the game between Spain and Portugal, such a sequence of results would see Iran progress in second at the loser’s expense.

#3 Nigeria

The Super Eagles will be looking to make a return to relevance

Nigeria have recently been World Cup regulars, having qualified for six of the last seven tournaments, but in the overall context of the game, they are still minnows. A FIFA ranking of 41 at the time of the Russia 2018 draw and their failure to qualify for either of the last two editions of the Africa Cup of Nations supports that assignation.

The Super Eagles have been drawn in Group D, alongside Argentina, Croatia and Iceland. Argentina will be expected to win the group, but Croatia were the lowest-ranked of the second seeds and are a side whose collective output rarely matches their underlying individual talent. Iceland are a well-structured team who have done incredibly well in recent years but are still an opponent that Nigeria will feel they have a decent chance of defeating.

A recent 4-2 friendly win over Argentina, in which Alex Iwobi and Kelechi Iheanacho shone brightest, showed that Nigeria even have enough firepower to potentially overcome the group’s top seeds - a side they have been drawn against in the group stage for a third consecutive tournament and a fifth occasion overall.

And so Nigeria have a solid chance of making it through to the round of 16 for the third time in their history.

#2 Serbia

Serbian players celebrate after scoring against Wales in the Fifa World Cup Qualifiers

Serbia were the only European team in the fourth pot of seeds and were handed a tough group alongside Brazil, Switzerland and Costa Rica, all of whom were ranked within the top-three of their respective pots.

There are, however, reasons to believe they are capable of progressing. They lost just once and topped their group during qualification, have good options in most positions, particularly in midfield, and possess two productive forward players in Dusan Tadic and Aleksandar Mitrovic.

With some of the side who won the Under-20 World Cup in 2015, including the impressive Sergej Milinkovic-Savic, also starting to filter into the squad, they still have the potential to improve ahead of the tournament.

Sneaking through in second behind the likely group winners Brazil is, therefore, a possibility.

#1 Senegal

Can Senegal repeat the heroics from the 2002 World Cup?

Senegal made a huge impression in their first appearance at the World Cup back in 2002, defeating the then reigning champions France in the opening match and then going on to reach the quarter-finals before falling to a narrow defeat to Turkey.

The Lions of Teranga had, however, failed to qualify for any of the subsequent tournaments before they booked their place at Russia 2018 by emerging as the undefeated winner of a group that also featured Burkina Faso, Cape Verde and South Africa.

Their reward is a place in Group H, alongside Poland, Colombia and Japan. It is not an easy draw by any means, but the four teams are close enough in quality that Senegal will have a solid chance of going through if they can maintain the defensive solidity they showed in qualifying. Especially so if one or more of their talented but inconsistent forwards also hit form at the right time.