5 predictions for the 2018 World Cup

The biggest spectacle in world sport kicks off in less than a week and anticipation for this year’s FIFA World Cup is at a resounding crescendo. Everybody is off making their predictions as to who will win and who will bomb.

Football pundits are spending hours analysing each and every squad and offering tips that have sent prospective managers scurrying to build their fantasy football teams. Battle lines are being drawn and allegiances have been declared as fans around the world gear up for the big event.

The same old storylines and debates have cropped up on whether Messi will finally win a World Cup, or will the German machine once again stand supreme, or will Samba magic envelop Russia, or will Cristiano Ronaldo repeat 2016’s magic... the list goes on. Amidst all the swirling theories and preconceived notions, I thought I too would throw out a few predictions regarding this year’s World Cup, and so here is a look at 5, slightly bold, predictions for Russia 2018:

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#1 Mo Salah fails to make an impact in this World Cup

Mo Salah’s rise to super-stardom this season has been nothing short of meteoric. He quickly established himself as one of the premier attacking forces in the Premier League and shattered Alan Shearer’s long-standing single-season scoring record. He also guided Liverpool to the Champions League final and catapulted himself into the conversation for this year’s Ballon d'Or award.

The Egyptian King provided an entire country with a new hero and gave the Kop a new song to sing and so naturally all eyes will be on him to see what he will achieve with Egypt at the World Cup. Here is the thing though, I believe he is set to be massively underwhelming.

The biggest reason for this is the question mark over his health. Sergio Ramos’ controversial tackle which brought Salah’s night to a premature end in the Champions League final has also left him in a race to be fit in time for the World Cup.

Reports coming out of the Egyptian camp are positive with many claiming he will be fit in time for Egypt’s opener against Uruguay, but there will most certainly be doubts about whether he is 100% fit, and it will be incredibly difficult for Salah to regain the dazzling form he has shown this season, if he is anything short of fully fit.

Salah’s record-breaking season was also massively aided by the contributions of Roberto Firmino and Sadio Mane, and unfortunately for Salah, the Egypt squad lacks players of a similar calibre.

Starved of service, Salah might have to endure frustrating nights in front of goal and with defences setting up with the primary purpose of stopping him, it will not be easy for him to create his own looks. Salah might well end up surprising the world yet again, but for now, he looks primed to have a disappointing World Cup.

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#2 Neither Ronaldo nor Messi walk away with the Golden Boot

Neymar could well win the Golden Boot

Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi’s duopoly over world football has been well established. The two have won the last ten Ballon d'Or awards amongst themselves and have been crowned the top scorer of Europe in 9 of the last 10 seasons. They are arguably the two greatest players in the history of the sport and have won almost every conceivable honour at the club level.

It can be safely said though that both have struggled at the World Cup. Messi has made 15 career appearances and scored 5 goals along with 3 assists, 4 of which came in Brazil in 2014 where he won the golden boot and fell short in the final losing to Germany, while Ronaldo has scored 3 goals with 2 assists in 13 career World Cup appearances. By their lofty standards, these are poor numbers, and Russia could well be an extension of that.

It is no secret that neither have really had the support in their respective national squads like they enjoy at their clubs and it has often hampered their performances. Argentina might have a wealth of attacking options, but the erratic form is a major concern for them and leading Argentina to an international title all on his own has proved to be too big a task for Messi to do on his own so far.

He is expected to shoulder all the playmaking and scoring burden which makes him a target for opposition defenders. Portugal might have won Euro 2016, but a look at their results will tell you they were highly fortunate, as they failed to win a single group stage game and only progressed to the knock out stage because of a new and expanded format which allowed for some third-place teams to qualify.

Ronaldo’s heroics can only take them so far, and with a squad that is not distinctly better than the Euro-winning squad, they could struggle when they come up against quality opposition.

Their competition too is in a very good place to secure the Golden Boot. Neymar will start as one of the front-runners, and with an able supporting cast and creative force behind him, will be one to watch out for. Thomas Muller’s World Cup record too speaks for itself and he is always a massive threat in that German side.

Antoine Griezmann will spearhead a French side that many expect to make a splash in this tournament and he will be a big factor in this race too. Not one of them has to deal with the massive weight of expectations that Ronaldo and Messi have to bear, and ultimately a combination of these factors could well mean that the two miss out on the Golden Boot this year.

#3 This World Cup marks the end of Joachim Low’s tenure as Germany Manager

Germany v Saudi Arabia - International Friendly

Joachim Low took over as Germany manager after the 2006 World Cup and has been responsible for re-establishing Germany as one of the best, if not the best team in Europe. They have been to the semi-finals of every major tournament under him, with the 2014 World Cup win the pinnacle of his achievement.

Coming into this tournament as the defending champions, there will be a lot of expectations riding on them to repeat last time’s heroics. Looking at the competition this time though, Germany’s chances seem bleak, which in turn could signal the end of Low’s stint as Germany manager.

Low’s decision to leave out Sane has already brought him under scrutiny. Sane is one of the most exciting prospects currently in world football and was coming off a great season for Manchester City which made the decision slightly perplexing. On top of that, their form coming into this tournament has been slightly patchy.

Of course it makes little sense to read into international friendlies results, however, before their nervy 2-1 win over Saudi Arabia in their last friendly, they were on their worst winless streak for 30 years, which would have set off some alarm bells. If one looks at their key opponents, specifically Brazil and France, both have arguably better squads and playing better football at the moment, which puts them in a better place to succeed at this tournament.

Another factor to consider will be the vacant manager’s post at Real Madrid. Madrid are reportedly considering making a move for Low even though he recently extended his Germany contract to 2022, and it is usually tough to say no to Madrid when they come calling. Failure at this World Cup could mean a move for Low to Madrid could just be the thing needed for all parties involved.

#4 Brazil lift the World Cup

Brazil are favourites to lift the World Cup

Picking a definite winner in any World Cup is folly. One has to look back to no later than this millennium for examples of the same. France came into the 2002 world cup with the top scorers of 3 of Europe’s top 5 leagues in their side, and were knocked out in the group stage without scoring even a single goal. 2010 and 2014 saw defending champions Italy and Spain respectively knocked out in the group stage, which goes to prove that come match time, all predictions go out of the window. Yet if one was feeling particularly brave and wanted to venture a guess, easy money would seem to be in Brazil.

Neymar, Philippe Coutinho, Gabriel Jesus, Roberto Firmino and Willian headline a potent attack, with a resurgent Paulinho and Real Madrid utility man Casemiro in midfield. Brazil are strong at the back as well with Miranda and Marquinhos, and in Marcelo they have probably the best left back in the world. It is a very strong and well-balanced squad that seems primed to win.

There were worries regarding Neymar’s fitness in the run-up to the tournament, but he seems to be returning to full fitness and marked his return to competitive football with a dazzling goal against Croatia. For all their talent all over the park, Neymar is still their leader, and if he plays up to his full potential, stopping Brazil could be next to impossible.

Coach Tite has played a major part in turning around Brazil’s fortunes. After their poor performances in 2016’s Copa America Centenario, with the scars of their 2014 world cup semi-final mauling still fresh, Tite took over from Dunga and brought Brazil back to its roots. He has got this squad playing with flair and purpose while instilling a sense of discipline and solidity in the team which has transformed them into a feared team.

The statistics and simulations all agree that Brazil are prohibitive favourites for the title, and it does seem a little hard to look beyond them.

#5 This World Cup will define VAR’s future in football

VAR will be in focus at the World Cup

This one could go either way. It is the first time that the Video Assistant Referee (VAR) will be used at a major world tournament and will finally be properly introduced to fans all around the world. This World Cup could either re-affirm the need for the VAR and make it a staple in leagues around the world, or it could end being a massive put-off for fans around the world and ultimately scupper it’s future in the game. There is a strong case to be made for either.

There is no doubt that there is a definite need for VAR in the game. Missed offside calls leading to goals, dubious penalty decisions, wrongful sending offs all have a massive effect on the game and the frequency of such incidents seems to have risen in the modern game. Imagine a scenario where the World Cup final swings based on one wrong decision by the referee. No country or referee should have to undergo that. We love to criticize referees for mistakes they made, but its time they are given the help they deserve to make critical calls.

However, it is a far from perfect system. Firstly, the fans in the stadium are left clueless about what is going on, and decisions are not explained to them. Secondly, though the rules state that the on-field decision of the referee will not be over-turned unless there is a clear mistake, there is a difference in how every referee interprets a clear mistake, which could affect decisions.

Communication problems could also arise amongst referees of different nationalities, and there could be a general difficulty that referees face in using VAR owing to their inexperience when it comes to using such a system.

It will be mighty interesting to see how the system fares in the World Cup because this could be something that proves to be a major flashpoint in the history of the sport.