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Despite the Premier League having arguably its strongest line-up of all time, we’re just about at the Christmas period and most observers would probably agree that the race for the league title is all but over. Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City have simply swept the board – winning 17 games, drawing 1 and losing zero – and they currently sit 11 points ahead of their nearest rivals, Manchester United.
But is it really the case that the title race is all but over? Are Man City really the champions elect? Well, if we’re honest, it’s likely. But having said that, we’ve seen other clubs in the past race into a huge lead only to blow it later on, and in the Premier League, anything is possible. So, here are five reasons why Manchester United could still win the league, and why the title race isn’t over just yet.
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#1 United have turned huge leads around before
Okay, so 1995/96 might be practically ancient history at this point, and only a fool would compare Pep Guardiola – clearly a top-class coach and a man who’s won multiple titles in Spain and Germany – to Kevin Keegan, a man who by his own admission was tactically naive. And of course, nobody is expecting current United manager Jose Mourinho to be able to suck Guardiola – his long-term rival – into any mind games.
But the bottom line is that history shows that in 1995/96, Newcastle United were sweeping the board early on and in January 1996 they held a 12-point lead on their nearest rivals, Alex Ferguson’s Man United. That’s not only a bigger lead than City currently hold, but it was a month later, too, meaning United had even more of a mountain to climb. And climb it they did, as Newcastle eventually imploded while United went from strength to strength, eventually overcoming the lead to win the title by four clear points.
Could it happen again? It seems unlikely right now, but you just never know. United clearly have the potential to go on a run like they did that season – winning thirteen of their final seventeen games – and while City are seemingly stronger than Newcastle were that season, one of the criticisms of the Magpies was that they disrupted their squad balance with a big signing – Tino Asprilla – in January. Sound familiar, with City apparently planning to sign Alexis Sanchez next month? Stranger things have certainly happened in football.
#2 City could still slip up
After such a perfect beginning to the season – destroying almost every side they’ve come up against, winning 17 of 18 games, and scoring a phenomenal 56 league goals alone – people are already talking about Guardiola’s Man City as being one of the all-time great Premier League sides. The only problem? We’re only just past the halfway mark in the season and the team haven’t actually won anything yet. It may seem academic that the league is theirs for the taking, but perhaps it’s not worth crowning them just yet.
Last season, for instance, City were perfect for their first six games and observers were ready to crown them the new champions then. That was until they came up against Mauricio Pochettino’s Tottenham, who defeated them 2-0 using a high-press tactic, and from there Guardiola’s side appeared to struggle. Despite a hot finish to the season – winning their last four games – they picked up a further five defeats and finished 3rd. Granted, Pep has strengthened the squad hugely this season, but even so – it isn’t over yet.
And to be honest, City haven’t quite been sweeping the board each and every week. They’ve been smashing teams at points, sure, but on other occasions, they’ve faced some close games and have only scraped through to steal the points. Their wins over Bournemouth, Huddersfield, Southampton and West Ham saw them score late goals – past the 80th minute - to seal the victory, and their equaliser in their lone draw against Everton also came late on.
Some would argue that those narrow wins are the mark of champions, but if their opponents could prevent those late goals, then City could still go on a lean patch – which could allow United to sneak past them and take the glory.
#3 They’ve got the firepower
While the overall strength of the Premier League is arguably better than ever, and some fans would argue that Jose Mourinho’s current squad isn’t a vintage United one that stands up to the great Alex Ferguson sides, you’d have to be crazy to say that the Red Devils don’t have the firepower to be capable of winning the title. Just look at their forward line-up – Romelu Lukaku, Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Marcus Rashford, Paul Pogba, Anthony Martial – right there you’ve got some of the Premier League’s most dangerous players.
And for all the criticism they’ve come under at points this season, you can’t really argue that they haven’t delivered the goods, either. Lukaku was on fire to begin the season and while he hasn’t been quite as effective as the months have gone on, he’s still scored 10 league goals in 18 games, a great return for any striker. Rashford has 9 in all competitions, Martial has 8, and even Jesse Lingard has chipped in with a solid return of 7. Ibrahimovic has only scored once thus far, but he’s only returned recently and last season he proved he could score goals in the Premier League.
With Pogba now back in the starting line-up after an injury curtailed the beginning to his season, United once again have their best creative player ready to start the ball of success rolling again. Don’t forget that when the Frenchman was on form at the start of the season prior to his injury, so were United – destroying West Ham and Swansea 4-0 in imperious fashion to begin the campaign. If any team has the firepower to overcome Man City and take the title, it’s Mourinho’s men.
#4 The other title challengers have issues
For all the strength that the Premier League currently boasts – five teams in the last sixteen of the Champions League – it’s probably safe to say that only the two Manchester clubs don’t have major issues right now. And that’s why it’s probably going to come down to just United who are capable of challenging Man City for the Premier League title once the spring rolls around. Last season, Chelsea won the league while Tottenham finished second, but it’s safe to say that won’t happen this time.
Chelsea currently sit in 3rd position, three points adrift of United, but they’ve shown themselves to be vulnerable this season – although they’ve beaten Tottenham and United themselves, their losses (outside of one to City) have come against far weaker sides in Burnley, West Ham and Crystal Palace. And that isn’t mentioning the constant rumours that boss Antonio Conte isn’t happy. Spurs meanwhile have looked inconsistent for the majority of their Premier League games – probably suffering due to the extra Champions League games sapping the energy of their relatively small squad.
Liverpool have struggled due to a perceived weak defence, and while they’ve only lost two games thus far, they’ve relied mightily on the form of Mohamed Salah to keep them in the Champions League spots; Arsenal have looked great at times but terrible at others and remain as inconsistent as ever, and nobody really expects Burnley – currently in 6th place - to keep up the pace. Which means United are the only consistent rival to Man City, and the only team likely to still be capable of winning the Premier League title.
#5 City's Champions League distraction
Displaying the kind of form that’s become the envy of not just their Premier League rivals, but the whole of Europe basically, not only are observers expecting Man City to win the league title, but a lot of them also expect Pep Guardiola’s side to lift the Champions League trophy come the end of the season, too. It’s all well and good to make predictions, but it could prove to be a dangerous idea should City become fixated on winning Europe’s premier competition.
The Champions League is due to restart in February – a point where it’s unlikely that City will have sewn up the Premier League, assuming United don’t slip up majorly – and while the Sky Blues are matched with a relatively soft side in Basel, it’s easy to imagine a situation where they face off with a giant opponent in the Quarter-Finals. That could mean they become distracted by the pursuit of the Champions League, and take their eye off the ball in the domestic competition.
While it’s true that plenty of sides – like Real Madrid last season, or Bayern Munich in 2012/13 – have won both their domestic league and Champions League, only Manchester United – in 1998/99 and 2007/08 – have won both the Premier League and Champions League in the same season.
The Premier League is the most difficult league in the world to win, and both Chelsea and Liverpool’s Champions League winning sides only came 5th. While that kind of finish is unlikely for Man City, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that they could become fixated on the Champions League – allowing United to slip past them to take the Premier League title.
