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The COVID-19 pandemic has created an unprecedented situation. Loss of lives, jobs and an economic downturn have almost brought the world to a standstill. The football world has been no exception.
Games across all major European leagues were suspended for almost three months. Even though a few of the leagues have resumed recently, fans are unlikely to be allowed into stadiums in the near future.
In financial terms, the repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic are bound to be felt acutely by the football world. Without ticket and merchandise sales, clubs will soon experience a cash crunch. A direct consequence of that would be in how the transfer market operates.
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On that note, let us look at five ways in which the COVID-19 crisis could change the football transfer market as we know it.
Five ways the football transfer market is likely to change post the COVID-19 crisis:
1) Lower prices of players
This aspect could be a blessing in disguise. It's no secret that the football transfer market was heavily inflated prior to the global shutdown owing to the COVID-19 pandemic.
The past few years have seen football clubs willingly shell out exorbitant amounts in transfer and agent fees. The likes of Neymar, Joao Felix and Antoine Griezmann have garnered insane price tags. But more importantly, clubs were flush with cash and happy to pay heavily for players who arguably did not command so much money.
As a result of the shutdown, however, football clubs have experienced a hit to their cash flow. Ticket sales have stopped completely while merchandise sales have slowed to a trickle. Many clubs have also had to furlough employees in order to protect themselves from a serious financial crisis.
As a result, transfer prices of players are likely to fall drastically simply because most teams would not have the cash to pay huge amounts. A perfect example of this is Chelsea's reported acquisition of Timo Werner. Werner could have easily broken the £ 100 million mark last year but Chelsea have apparently captured his signature for around € 60 million, which is an absolute steal.
2) Cut the middleman - No more agents
Agents have seemingly formed some sort of a cartel when it comes to the football transfer market.
Big names like Mino Raiola, Jorge Mendes, Pini Zahavi and Kia Joorabchian demand huge cuts in order to broker a deal between two clubs and a player. Needless to say, most clubs are not happy to engage with such agents as it adds a significant amount of money to an already significant transfer sum. Due to the aforementioned cash crunch, football clubs would now be far more willing to do business with each other directly in order to eliminate the middleman.
It was recently reported that football clubs have turned to an online forum in which they can engage with each other directly rather than go through an agent. Doing so would further help reduce the overall sums of money paid for a player and arguably make the entire process smoother.
3) Loan moves could become more popular
The upcoming transfer market would most likely see a spur of loan deals between football clubs. Loans are extremely convenient. A small fee and the player's salary (at times just part of the salary) are far less expensive than shelling out fees for a permanent transfer. A recent trend that has emerged with loan deals in football is the 'obligation to buy' clause.
This clause could be extremely attractive this summer as teams can acquire a player but defer the payment of the transfer amount to a later year when the financial situation becomes more conducive. Such moves are a win-win for both parties.
The selling club can get a player's salary off their books and be assured of a sum for his transfer at a later date. The purchasing club gets the player they want for a small amount, and with time to plan for such a purchase.
4) Swap deals
Swap deals are fairly simple and a literal quid pro quo. Two football clubs can agree to swap players with each other, resulting in a short but effective transaction.
Swap deals have become very infrequent over the past decade or so but in such trying times, they represent a very straightforward solution. Swaps allow a club to replace an unwanted or underperforming player with one who might be a necessity.
The only caveat, though, is that both players should be of similar stature or value in the eyes of both clubs. While getting to a agreement regarding the valuation of a player might be difficult, the deal itself, if executed, has very few monetary strings attached.
Therefore, we could see a flurry of swaps between football clubs looking to clear their wage bill but at the same time address weaknesses in their squads.
5) Fewer transactions
Despite the variety of options, the most sensible and arguably most likely consequence of the COVID-19 outbreak could be fewer activities in the football transfer market.
Chelsea have proved that having faith in academy players can pay off, and many clubs might be eager to emulate the same. This could be a period when more sides are willing to take a gamble on their academy graduates as a cost-effective alternative to signing a new player.
Doing so would have plenty of positive aspects. It would see more youngsters making their mark at the top level when they would have otherwise been shipped off on loan. If a few of them do make an impact at their respective football clubs, it could prompt a chain reaction where more emphasis is given on developing a strong academy.
