6 pointer conundrum for Arsenal

Surprise!!

If you were to exclusively listen to the pundits in the current scenario, then you would believe that it is not the consistency in the league that wins you the league, but the head to head against the title rivals. Somehow they argue that the 3 points gained against a Sunderland or a Liverpool is somehow less than gaining the 3 points against a Chelsea or a City.

Which is of course nonsense. As Man United have taught us all these years, one doesn’t need a vintage team to be champions come May, being a flat track bully works just about fine.

This season is shaping up to be an odd one. We could see a title winner actually win it with 80 or less points. In the true spirit of EPL, where anybody can beat anybody, it promises to be a very close affair with no runaway team. Such a skirmish kind of a season will benefit arsenal profoundly.

From the farce that was the summer of 2010/2011, Arsenal actually ended up signing two of the most influential players of the Emirates era- Arteta and Per. The impact of both has been huge on and off the field. Going forward we signed Yossi, Santi, Podolski, Giroud, Monreal, Sanogo, Flamini and Ozil. That’s quite a transfer roll call and everyone has had a huge impact.

Leaders

Such is the scenario in which that Arsenal, somewhat surprisingly, sit at the top of the table after 11 games. 25 points from a potential 33 and displaying some amazing consistency by making light work off all the sides they “should” beat. Yet were you to tune any media house, you’d be scoffed for thinking that arsenal could last the distance. And then there are pundits which think that Arsenal aren’t even a “top four operation“. The appalling punditry of Michael Owen apart, let’s beat around the bush and get a sense of perspective.

The points accrued by the Champions in the last 5 Premier League title races and Arsenal’s standing:

PL title Winner Points

On an average arsenal have been 15 points off the pace in the last 5 years. And thus it is easy to write them off once again. Overcoming a 16 point gap in just one season is something which doesn’t happen too often. But the underlying numbers, tell a different story.

The 2013/14 season is obviously young. Just 11 matches old in fact, therefore to extrapolate is not exactly ideal. But it is unofficially accepted that it is at this point that the table seems to take shape and Arsenal have definitely provided a compelling case in the first 11 matches. But a compelling case for what? Top 4 or a title challenge?

Points Per Game (PPG) through the years

First I have started by dividing the so called “6 pointers” from the rest. I have divided the accrual of points into a points accrued against the top 6 and the rest. Arsenal play 10 games (home and away) against the eventual top 6 and 28 games against the rest of the teams. From the above table, we can see that Arsenal’s current form is no ‘flash in the pan’. They have consistently improved year on year since 2010/2011.

The improvement is most apparent in gaining points against opposition which Arsenal “ought to beat”.

The average PPG for opponents in the top 6 for the last 5 years has been 1.12. With the year 2012/13 being the worst in that regard where arsenal only picked up 7 points out of a possible 30 in their head to head with the other challengers. Funnily Arsenal have already in just 2(out of 10) matches played picked up almost half of all the points they made last year in the mini league of teams in top 6.

However their PPG for opponents outside of top 6 has been steadily increasing, a testament to their system. Year on year improvement in PPG against opponents outside of top 6 since 10/11

10/11-11/12 = 1.82%11/12-12/13=17.85% (!!)

With such a skewed PPG many predicted that Arsenal being well Arsenal, would simply regress. But that hasn’t happened and the current PPG for opponents outside of the top 6 is at 2.44. A better figure than in any of the last 5 years. While I do not expect Arsenal to regress (mainly because their current form is borne out of consistent improvement over the past 2 years, rather than just a flash), it is interesting to note or rather “extrapolate” what would happen if they do so.

The average PPG for opponents outside of top 6 for Arsenal for the last 5 years is 2.157.

at 2.157 for 19 matches = 40.9 == 41 points

Again PPG amongst top 6 for last 5 years is 1.12

at 1.12 for 8 matches = 8.96 == 9 points

Adding all these up we get => 25 + 41 + 9 = 75 points.

At 75 points Arsenal WILL make top 4, despite regression.

But what if Arsenal, staying true to themselves keep improving or keep performing to the levels they have been for over a calendar year now?

at 2.444 for 19 matches = 46.436 == 46 points

and

at 1.12 for 8 matches = 8.96 == 9 points

Adding all these we get => 25 + 46 + 9 = 80 points.

In the current league scenario if Arsenal touch 80 they will win the league. So arsenal could literally insulate their results against head to head challengers from improvement and romp home by just being flat track bullies.

Or something….

Till the next time then!