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Philippe Coutinho, Luis Suarez, Ivan Rakitic, Sergi Roberto, and Lionel Messi, all scored to send Sevilla straight outta Copa Del Rey. Carrying a 2-0 lead into the second leg, Sevilla could do little to stop a rampant Barcelona. Barcelona now go into the semis chasing their 5th successive Copa Del Rey title.
Now elsewhere in the outskirts of Catalonia region, Real Madrid will be facing Girona in the second leg of their quarter-finals. Madrid, unlike Barcelona, leads 2-0 from the first leg and are favourites to proceed. So here is the deal, fans from both sides have been buzzing on the possible El Clasicos that would take place if the teams get drawn opposite to each other in semis.
An El Clasico, even if it is friendly, is a match of utmost importance. Perhaps the most important game in football history, more important than any trophy or league title. It looks amazing on paper. Back in 2009-10, Barcelona and Real Madrid faced each other 5 times. In the Champions League semis, in the Copa Del Rey finals, and in the league twice.
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So let's say that it happens. There is a good chance that it might. Who has the upper hand?
Note: It is convenient to use a single time zone. We are sticking to IST here. Games usually take place early morning at 1:00 or so. Please understand the problem of analyzing in accordance with Spanish time.
Fixtures preceding and succeeding the possible Clasico
Let us introspect, shall we? The Copa Del Rey semi-final fixtures took place one week after the quarters last year. One week flat. That is all the time you get to prepare.
So if the first leg, which by our assumption takes place on 6th and 7th of February going by IST, then the teams only have two to four days for their next league game.
Bernabeu will be host to the Madrid Derby on 9th February, Saturday. Then they have to face Ajax on the 14th in the UEFA Champions League. Meanwhile, the second leg of Copa Del Rey semis usually takes place, one week after the first leg. The second leg won't take place on 14th because of the UCL clash, so maybe they will move it later.
Now for the Blaugrana. Sticking with IST, during which games take place early 1:30 am or so. They face Athletic Bilbao on 11th February. The first leg won't create fixture congestions but the second leg would.
Valladolid is up on 17th and then Lyon is up in Europe on 20th. RFEF, how are you going to deal with this? The first leg is fine but then you have two consecutive weeks of European football and both Barca and Madrid play in different weeks.
Either way, all hell will break loose with these fixture congestions. For both Madrid and Barcelona, this is trouble. After the first leg, Madrid is still under pressure for the Derby and the date with Ajax.
Barcelona will be in deep trouble when it comes to scheduling the second leg. It is unclear what they will schedule. 14th, Madrid play. 15th, you cannot schedule a game after one day of a European game. Both teams play on 17th, so no game on 16th and 18th.
Then on 20th Barcelona play Lyon, so name game on 19th and 21st. It is just so confusing. 24th, both teams have a league game. How is the schedule going to be prepared? Will the semi-final second leg drag on till February last week?
Players will be in a busy schedule already. Dropping a Clasico in before, in-between or after these fixtures will just be bad for the players. Rotations are a must here. So now let's examine the injuries and bench strength.
Player availability, Injuries, and Bench strength
Alba is the only available left-back who is experienced enough to start in Clasico and league games. The Spaniard will be under pressure.
There are no suspensions till now for both sides. For Barcelona, Ousmane Dembele and Samuel Umtiti are both injured. However, Dembele would be back before the first semi-final leg.
For Madrid, goalkeeping is a big concern. Too many games for Thibaut Courtois, Keylor Navas injured. The fatigue level on Courtois will be massive and it will be risky to start Keylor till the game on 17th against Girona.
Moving on to bench strength. This is where both sides are good, especially Barcelona. Pique and Lenglet are the starters, even Murillo is available and Umtiti was seen in training earlier today.
Barcelona is also trying to rope Todibo in early. For Madrid however, it has to be between Ramos, Varane and maybe Nacho for the centre-back spot. We aren't naming Chumi or Javi Sanchez because they won't start in a Clasico or a league game.
Fun fact, Ramos and Nacho are both one yellow card away from suspension in the league. Which means that Madrid could be in for a tight and exhausting Clasico, followed by a Madrid Derby, god forbid, without Ramos and maybe also both. This will force Solari to start a Castilla player in the central defence in the league, too risky.
Coming to midfield, it is fine for both teams. Both teams can rotate but Madrid won't have it easy. Modric, Kroos, Ceballos, Marcos Llorente, Fede Valverde are could start. But you couldn't start Fede Valverde in the Clasico. Marcos Llorente against Busquets? Looks good on paper, but still, the youngster will be in for a tough test against a much more experienced campaigner.
Why not Isco? Ask Solari that guys. He seems bent on not using Isco. If Madrid goes full on in the midfield for Copa Del Rey, then they have an exhausted midfield against Atletico. They need to rest one of their good midfielders in the Clasico to have a good Madrid derby.
Barcelona has the bases covered. Arthur, Alena, Rakitic, Busquets, Vidal, Sergi Roberto, Coutinho, all can start at midfield. They can start Alena against Bilbao while fielding their best against Madrid. The second leg will not be bad either. It is Valladolid at Camp Nou, rotations are more than affordable. Then the UCL game will come.
Forward line. Dembele will be back, Messi, Suarez, and Coutinho all in form, it is a bad sight for opponents. For Madrid, not bad here, Vinicius, Benzema, Bale, and Vazquez are all good to go. So our conclusion is that a Clasico, should it take place will test Madrid's bench strength very heavily and they might crack too.
Rotation feasibility
We have spoken about this but we will emphasize again. Madrid cannot rotate before the possible semi-final as it is against Alaves who are tailing them in the league, they cannot rotate in the Clasico or in the Madrid Derby and UCL tie.
Tough times. Even if they try against Alaves, Varane is out suspended, which is bad already. Maybe in midfield. But these problems are occurring because Solari ceases to start Isco.
Barcelona can afford rotations against Athletic Club, surely in the defence and maybe midfield. Their concern will be Jordi Alba. One more yellow card will put him out of the league game.
The only backup left back is Miranda. But that is about it. Take Busquets out, you still have Rakitic, Arthur and Vidal. Even a 4-4-2 is feasible with Coutinho and Sergi as wide midfielders. Even before UCL, they have a Valladolid game to rotate.
Final opinion
An El Clasico, not one but two, seems really lucrative on paper. Both fans would be willing to see the game but there might be some who opt out of it, including me. Barcelona has to rotate in the game against Valladolid but this team defended till death in the first game.
Athletic Bilbao held Barcelona scoreless till 83 minutes or so. Attacking rotations are risky here, so if they find an easy Copa Del Rey opponent, the issue is solved. Rotate there, start the good ones here.
Madrid might not be serious about the league as it is almost out of reach. But the Madrid derby, El Clasico, and UCL Round of 16, all will arrive in just under a week.
It is too bad for a team recovering from a bad phase to undergo these challenges in a quick span of time. A loss will further deteriorate their confidence and take a toll in their UCL bid.
Barca vs Madrid, Last meeting: Barca won 5-1 at Camp Nou and 3-0 at Bernabeu
The last meeting in CDR: Final 2013/14, Madrid won 2-1
So this is my opinion and mine only. What is yours? Just drop down in the comments.
